Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin’s current value has moved below Futures Traders expectations relative to the U.S. Dollar. A similar situation occurred when the U.S. Dollar moved higher between January 2018 and December 2018. A long term accumulation period for Bitcoin started in December 2018 and continued until May 2020. Bitcoin is starting another accumulation period, as observed during the last week of October 2021, and is expected to continue moving higher over the long term.
Bitcoin: October 15, 2018
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Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin appears to be in a similar structural position relative to where it was on October 15, 2018. A decline is expected to start by November 15, 2021 with an accumulation period occurring between November 2021 and December 2021 prior to moving higher.
Bitcoin: Trend Lower
Intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to indicate Bitcoin will trend lower during the remainder of 2021. As of July 23, 2021 trading data indicates Bitcoin is in a similar structural position relative to July 16, 2018.
Bitcoin: Decline Continues
Calculations indicate a decline is expected to continue just as it did in early 2018. Bitcoin’s structural design from December 2017 to April 2021 is similar to that of December 2014 to December 2017. Commercial Futures Traders still hold a significant number of bitcoin short positions relative to its value against the Dollar. Since bitcoin started trading in 2010, it is unknown what the impact will be with a substantial decline in the Dow, as discussed in the May 12, 2021 post. This may explain why Goldman Sachs set up crypto currency trading desk for their wealthy clients.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin vs Dollar
On January 4, 1971 the EuroUSD index started trading with an opening value of 0.5353. By December 3, 1979 the EuroUSD index hit a high of 1.1418 before starting a decline in January 1980. Thirty-nine years after the EuroUSD index started trading, the BTCUSD (Bitcoin/USD) index started trading on July 19, 2010 with an opening value of 0.08584. It has taken Bitcoin 11 years to develop a structure that is similar to the EuroUSD that ran from 1971 to 1980. As the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq start their long term decline in 2021, the value of the U.S. Dollar will rise just as it did between 1980 and 1985.
It was noted in the March 1, 2021 post that calculations indicate global currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro are expected to retest their previous 2020 lows by early 2023 as the U.S. Dollar moves higher. Bitcoin is also expected to have a significant decline for several years, similar to what occurred with the EuroUSD index between 1980 and 1985.