Intermarket structural analysis research
It is apparent that Market Maker and Liquidity Provider algorithms are providing a road map for Apple based on its 2024 structure. A move below the lower trend line will indicate a steady short term decline is in progress. This will provide all the liquidity needed for exchange insiders when markets turn and move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of June 2, 2026 futures traders confirmed their expectation that Bitcoin would move higher in the coming months. This indicates price movements should follow the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Therefore Bitcoin should make one final push above 100,000 before making a long term decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The SOX Semiconductor Index finished the week with a 4.74% decline and a very long shooting star candle. Semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Micron, and NVIDIA also ended lower with similar candles for the week. Typically, a sharp decline would be expected to follow this type of candle. But, the Fear & Greed cycle has already moved into the Fear category, as it did in late 2022. It hit a low of 35 on December 30, 2022 before the S&P500 and NASDAQ started moving higher. At this point a brief decline would be expected before markets start moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of June 3, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.82. This position is similar to July 9, 2025. What followed in 2025 was the Dow moved sideways with a quick drop at the end of July, after the Fed Reserve Meeting on July 29-30, 2025. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. A quick decline after this meeting would not be a surprise. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
For those who are watching this, here is a quick note to illustrate that IGV has a trading pattern history similar to the following chart.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of May 27, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved to 98.39. Up until May 13, 2026 patterns in the index were similar to late 2024. Currently the index resembles 2025. The February – April 2025 broad based sell off, due to an increase in tariffs, pulled the index down to 35.16 before recovering in May and June. The latest decline, due to the Iran war, started in February 2026 and pulled the index down to 60.24. During this decline buyers were focused on technology stocks, as shown in the Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV). Heavy volume between February and April indicated insiders, market makers, etc. were buying whatever they could. This type of activity should push markets higher going into the summer months. Investment Managers remain bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 24, 2023 an ascending triangle was identified in silver with the expectation of it moving higher. This by itself would not necessarily support a sharp rise in the metal. It is the bailout and economic rescue plans approved by congress that flooded the economy with money. Going back to 1970 every time Congress approved a series of bills, it was followed by an increase in the price of metals. Typically, within a year of when the last bill was approved silver started to move higher. It has been 10 months 27 days since July 4, 2025 when President Trump approved the $3.4 trillion Big Beautiful Bill Act. This was noted on March 30, 2026. Even though silver moved up sharply in 2025, the next move up is expected to be parabolic.
References:
March 30, 2026 $3.4Trillion Economic Stimulus Package
December 24, 2024 Silver Ascending Triangle
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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After several weeks of watching a sharp rise in stock markets during April and May, investor optimism would be expected to move higher. In this case Investment Managers were optimistic, but AAII investors were not. The Fear & Greed indicator did not move above the Greed range. It appears retail investors are in a holding pattern waiting for a resolution to the middle east conflict, higher gas prices, inflation, layoffs, and more. The following charts show a snapshot of investor sentiment.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
AAII Sentiment Survey – https://www.aaii.com/sentiment-survey
CNN Fear & Greed Index – https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
NAAIM Exposure Index – https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
Fear & Greed data since August 2022 shows the current position of the index is similar to April 25, 2023, December 6, 2023 and June 13, 2025. So far, it trends well with the S&P500. Markets could turn down as early as July 2026, after the SpaceX IPO. This is a work in progress and additional data will be needed to identify relationships with other indicators.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On May 4, 2026 it was noted that over the last four years the 30 Year rate chart structure has been moving higher on a 21.82 degree trend line. Along with this TLT followed an 8.32 degree trend line in 2011, 2018, and 2026. In October and November 2018 rates moved higher and then fell. TLT briefly dropped below its trend line during this time before moving higher. That may also be possible in 2026.. In each case Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory before TLT moved higher. Whether it is a repeat of algorithms, policies, procedures, plans, etc., Market Makers are certainly consistent in this case.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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History provides some insight to Market Maker activities. One example is Cisco. Based on the 2000 Cisco chart structure there was a period between 1993 and 1998 when Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory. As this occurred there were 2 cycles between 1997 and 1998 before it started to move significantly higher.
It appears Market Makers are repeating their work from 2000. The 2026 Cisco chart reflects a similar structure where Market Makers accumulated inventory between 2010 and early 2016. There were also 2 cycles between 2019 and 2022 before it started to move significantly higher.
At this point it is unknown if Market Makers will continue to use the 2000 structure as a model. If they do it will be an impressive move.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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While the NASDAQ and S&P500 moved up rapidly over the last several weeks investors have not moved to an extreme bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Once a week a sentiment survey is conducted by AAII Investors. They provide their opinion on the direction of markets over the next six months. When there is a large divergence between Bulls and Bears a turning point is near. This, along with other technical indicators, can be helpful.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Reference: American Association of Individual Investors Survey
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Bill Holter discusses gold, silver, interest rates, etc.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of May 6, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 96.67. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are leveraged long and still extremely bullish. The current 2026 NAAIM index pattern is similar to late 2024 and near the reading of 98.93 on November 27, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Over the last four years the 30 Year rate structure has been moving higher on a 21.82 degree trend line. This structure was developed on a smaller scale during 2018 with a 21.82 degree trend line. Current big block volume continues to indicate Market Makers are accumulating TLT, just as they did in 2018. The data indicates exchange insiders know a significant event is coming and they are making preparations for it.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On May 1, 2026 a shooting star appeared in the S&P500 and SPY. Prior to this a bearish engulfing candle appeared on April 21, 2026. This same sequence occurred on February 9, 2023 and February 16, 2023. It was followed by a 5.6% decline in the SPY before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The SP500 and SPY are going into the end of April with:
1. New Intraday Highs
2. SPY Engulfing bearish candle on April 21, 2026
3. Decreasing SPY Volume in April
4. CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio 5-Day Moving Average low on April 17, 2026 (Options Expiration)
5. One SPY big block trade over 2 million shares in April
6. Retail traders were very active in April
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of April 22, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 94.15. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are extremely bullish. Previous bullish positions with similar characteristics are shown below.
Dates with comparative NAAIM readings:
January 17, 2018 – 94.09 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 8, 2020 – 94.16 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 6, 2021 – 94.51 – markets continued to move higher
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Bitcoin continues to develop a structure where the current price point is in a position similar to where the Euro was in April 1980. Turning points for each move upward since 2022 have been identified in the following chart. Bitcoin Non-Commercial Futures Trader Net positions indicate another move upward is expected this year. This would place Bitcoin near its high to be in line with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model page.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On April 14, 2026, the CBOE Put/Call ratio index dropped to 0.68. The last two times this occurred was on June 12, 2024 (0.66) and May 15, 2025 (0.68). At this point the Equity Put/Call ratio does not indicate that a top is near. Using this input, markets would be expected to continue moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On Thursday, April 9, 2026 it was noted that stock market indices opened higher on April 8, 2026 with a significant gap. This did not occur in a majority of index related charts in the extended session. Additional research shows a gap in the DDM derivative that could be filled within the next 30 days. This will depend on computer algorithm decisions to address this gap before markets move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
