Intermarket structural analysis research
As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 21, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. If retail investors continued on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.
During the first half of January 2026 the VIX developed a 44.05 degree angle. This is the same angle that was developed in July 2011. It is very unusual and would indicate a market decline is very close.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Bitcoin continues to develop a large structure similar to the 1971 – 1985 Engrbytrade™ Euro model. Since 2020 the S&P500 moved lower during prolonged Bitcoin declines. The exception was 2021. At this point the S&P500 should decline in 2026. This is based on the Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength and Commodity Channel index positions indicating a change in direction is expected. After this decline Bitcoin should move up to its previous highs before starting another decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 24, 2023 it was noted how money from numerous bailouts and rescue packages were approved by Congress between 2020 and 2022. At the time a silver chart structure was developing within an ascending triangle that was on course to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. A quick move up in silver during 2024 was expected. In 2024 precious metals prices started to move higher and are now hitting another peak similar to 2011. The following charts provide some perspective on the current position of SLV compared to 2011.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 19, 2025 it was noted that Non-Commercial Traders were holding short positions on a level similar to that of October 2, 2018. The level of their holdings is still significant and rates are expected to fall significantly in 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
Wall street media outlets never disappoint when it comes to putting a positive spin on just about every headline in the news cycle. What they do not discuss are indicators such as the following. The NASDAQ 100 Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average. Based on previous readings, when this percentage drops and stays below the 50% level, a market decline is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On November 26, 2025 it was noted that up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. Between mid-October and the end of November very few of these blocks crossed the tape. During the last half of December several large blocks appeared as a falling wedge pattern developed. Daily volume also declined during this time. This wedge appeared just in time for the announcement of a new Fed Chairman.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
In 1980 silver hit its peak on January 18, 1980 with a close of 49.45. The S&P500 started a 16.69% decline 18 trading days after this peak in silver. The 1980 stock market decline was attributed to an early recession.
In 2011 silver hit a peak on April 29, 2011 with a close of 47.95. The S&P500 started a 17.76% decline 68 trading days from the peak in silver. The August 2011 stock market decline was due to Standard & Poor’s downgrading America’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.
Once again silver is reaching new parabolic highs with the CME raising margin rates. When silver peaks, a decline in the range of 17 percent for the S&P500 would be expected. As of today it would come close to filling the gap created on May 12, 2025 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following charts show the VIX is developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. A review of trades in VIX ETFs revealed very few big blocks along with a large number of small trades. Retail investors are increasing their activity while hedge funds are selling. If retail investors continue on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.
CNBC – November 13, 2025
“Hedge funds are still dumping stocks while retail investors keep the bull market alive”
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.
Key data points include the following.
December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38
February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 11, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was continuing to follow its 2011 pattern. Along with this, research indicates the NASDAQ is also following its 2011 pattern using a 2.77 degree declining support line. Whatever Market Makers are preparing, it appears they are using 2011 as their algorithmic model.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
One Dow futures Non Reportable category covers what are more commonly referred to as “small speculators”. This group is below the reporting level specified by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Due to the Government shutdown, data reports have been delayed with the latest update covering November 18, 2025. The following chart illustrates the number of short positions held by small speculators. They are currently in a position that is similar to December 31, 2024, prior to the Dow’s decline in February 2025. Based on the following data, when this group of traders holds a significant number of short positions, the Dow has a tendency to move higher. When they hold relatively few short positions, the Dow trends lower. The upcoming expected change should provide additional data for this observation.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
The VIX continues to follow its 2011 structure. Note that the VIX hit a low of 15.12 on July 1, 2011. Watch for news from the financial media on topics ranging from disappointing earnings, slow growth, etc. As soon as markets start to turn the media will provide a long list of reasons.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.
Key data points include the following.
December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89
February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
From October 1, 2025 to November 12, 2025 the U.S. Government shutdown delayed the availability of Commitment of Trader Reports. As of Friday December 5, 2025, data was available up to October 28, 2025. Calculations using select currencies and commodities indicates the US Dollar is on a path that will be similar to 2006 and 2007. Based on the following results it appears the US Dollar will decline in 2026.
Select currencies and commodities vs US Dollar calculations show the following dates that align with October 28, 2025
British Pound – 12/12/06
Canadian dollar – 5/8/07
Copper – 12/12/06
S&P500 – 12/26/06
Silver – 6/20/06
US Dollar – 12/19/06
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.
December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59
November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 26, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 89.92. Investment Managers are still bullish with hedge positions similar to December 23, 2020. At that point the Exposure Index number was 89.11
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On November 18, 2025 the VIX hit 25 as it aligned with June 2011. Now it appears to be moving to align with July 2011. December 2025 should reveal the direction of markets.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
Up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. During this process TLT followed its 2010 – 2011 chart structure. Another stock market structure appeared recently in the S&P500 during October and November 2025. This is similar to the February to June 2011 S&P500 chart peak structure. In 2011 the S&P500 structure formed prior to an announcement of a U.S Credit Downgrade on August 5, 2011. It resulted in a sharp decline in the stock markets as interest rates dropped quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The current S&P500 trading pattern is in a process of developing structures similar to the beginning of April 2024. The large engulfing candle on Thursday, November 20, 2025 followed by a rally is similar to April 4 – 5, 2024. In addition to this the 5-Day Moving Average Equity Put/Call Ratio continues to move higher, as it did in April 2024. What remains to be seen is how far Options and Equity Market Makers push this decline in order to accumulate the inventory they need.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
