Engrbytrade Posts

Posted on

Interest Rates: TLH and TLT

On July 12, 2026 it was noted that overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term. Market Makers and insiders have been accumulating the 10-Yr (TLH) and 30-Yr (TLT) derivatives for some time now. TLH has seen serious accumulation activity since the first quarter of 2025. TLT continues to ride the 8.32 degree trend line with a steady rate of accumulation. Not unusual, but it appears Liquidity Providers are targeting stop losses along this algorithmic path. The “Bond Market” and Market Makers have control of this situation and it appears they certainly could drive rates lower based on any number of local or international events.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Cisco Distribution

After the crisis in 2008 subsided, market makers started accumulating Cisco as inventory between 2011 and 2014. The price rose slowly for several years until 2024 when it started going parabolic and hitting a high of 129 on June 4, 2026. Since the peak occurred, extremely large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape (at the close) between mid-June and mid-July. This type of activity is typically from market maker’s distributing their inventory. The end result is expected to be a situation similar to what occurred between 2000 and 2001.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Micron Technology

On June 6, 2026 it was noted that the weekly Semiconductor index (SOX) would briefly decline before markets started moving higher. The SOX index did move lower between mid-June and mid-July. Since Micron is a component of this index, it provides some insight on what to expect. Back in 1999- 2000 everyone was afraid of the Y2K apocalypse and extremely bullish on the stock market. Money was pouring into tech stocks. Today trillions are planned for AI.

After the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000, Micron did not hit its peak until July 2000. Not much has changed. The 2026 chart below is showing similar structural patterns to that of 2000. It appears corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much and are repeating the year 2000. After the current expected pullback another brief push upward would be in order. A diverse change in direction for many stocks should be expected in 2026 and 2027. Some will continue to move higher while others drop quickly.

Booming stock market led by tech has some saying it feels like the 1999 internet bubble – October 13, 2025

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Caterpillar Peak

During July 2026 Caterpillar moved from its July 1, 2026 high to a July 17, 2026 low for a 21.9% decline.
This is similar to the following.
a) May 10, 2006 high to a January 22, 2007 low for a 28.3% decline.
b) July 31, 1997 high to a November 14, 1997 low for a 26.43% decline.

Based on the previous moves in 1997 and 2006 Caterpillar is expected to move sideways in 2026 and 2027. This is also a very early warning signal for the markets. A brief pullback in the indices is still expected this year to be followed by a move higher in 2027. The Dow and S&P500 could hit their peak in 2027 with the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2028 before starting a significant decline.

.Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

NASDAQ: Hindenburg Omen

On June 11, 2026 the NASDAQ Hindenburg Omen 4 day moving average  hit a peak of 3.0 and then dropped to 2.0 on June 19. It moved back up to 3.0 on June 25. It is currently 2.5 as of July 17, 2026. Since the 3.0 hits in June are not similar to previous years, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. The market is still expected to pull back between now and the mid-term elections.

Hindenburg Omen Research

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – July 15, 2026

On July 9, 2026 it was noted that a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July. In addition to this the Exposure index is in the process of developing a pattern that is similar to what occurred between June 16, 2021 (98.52) and September 22, 2021 (77.70). Based on this pattern a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. Investment managers are still bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Big Block Trades

Trading patterns within the Dow stocks are replicating what occurred in January 2026. Trades at the close are crossing the tape with over 8 and 9 million shares again. This by itself would not be a problem except the Dow is in a  rising wedge format that is similar to the 2025 – 2026 structure. Other stocks that are seeing very large blocks are Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Microsoft trades are starting to move into the $3 billion range at the close. If we see another 1,000+ point day, it could be a problem, depending on what Market Makers have in mind.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Interest Rates: 10-Yr Note Rate Expectations

On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was their first rate cut in four years. In late October 2007 rates started dropping until the end of March 2008.

On September 18, 2024 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was also their first cut in four years. Since their last rate cut occurred the 10-Yr rate has moved up 0.86% to 4.56%.

Non-Commercial futures traders are still positioned where interest rates are expected to fall. It appears the Fed, bond market, or both are waiting for something to trigger a rate decline. Overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Trump…”Ceasefire is over”

On Friday morning, June 10, 2026, the news wire was hit with “President Trump agrees to continue talks with Iran, but says ceasefire is over”. Shortly after 10:30 a. m. ET algorithms picked on this news and immediately started repricing stocks relative to risk. Four and five figure trades in Dow stocks were running through the system hitting tight stop-loss orders along the way. This provided additional inventory for Market Makers and Liquidity Providers. After this repricing event they used this inventory to distribute stock while moving prices higher until the end of the day. The public looked at a market close that did not warrant their attention and moved on. The Dow closed up 149 points (+0.29%).

 

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – July 8, 2026

As of July 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 82.95. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on July 5, 2023. Investment managers are still bullish.

July 8, 2026
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 58.71
NAAIM Number: 82.95

July 5, 2023
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 50.49
NAAIM Number: 83.11

S&P500 peak: July 27, 2023
Dow peak: July 27, 2023
NASDAQ 100 peak: July 19, 2023

Based on NAAIM readings, 5-Day Moving Average put/call option positions, etc., a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Posted on

Bitcoin/Dollar/Gold: Intermarket Links

On July 6, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin Non-Commercial futures traders net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. Traders are also providing some intermarket insight to the direction of the Dollar and Gold as well. Their Bitcoin positions have been building since the beginning of 2026 and link indirectly to the U.S. Dollar and Gold. Based on the latest data it is expected that Bitcoin will move higher, the Dollar will move lower and Gold will move higher during the coming months. The following charts provide a general direction for each.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Bitcoin: Extreme Net Long Positions

On June 7, 2026 it was noted that futures traders confirmed their expectation that Bitcoin would move higher in the coming months. Net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. This still aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is expected to move higher before making a long term decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model

Posted on

Dow: 2025 – 2026 Trend Lines

The Dow and other indices work within a programmed range using a margin of error over the long term. When a shift occurs, as it did during the first four months of 2025, parameters reset and the system continues. This type of behavior was addressed by Richard Ney in the 1970s. Is it that simple. No. Today, everything is handled by high speed computers. There are also many factors that interact with these boundaries. Investor sentiment, liquidity providers order flow interaction with trader stop loss orders, news events causing a sharp change in direction are just a few. The Dow may bump against the current upper trend line and then move back down to the next channel as it moves higher.  Still monitoring sentiment, options positions and very large block trades to see where the next turning point will be.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – July 1, 2026

As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: 2026 Rising Wedge

The Dow Jones Index continues to move upward on a path within a rising wedge, just as it did between late 2025 and early 2026. In addition to this, Alphabet replaced Verizon in the Dow Jones Index on June 29, 2026. Alphabet joins a group of Dow stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft, and NVIDIA that move very large seven figure trades on a regular basis. The inclusion of Alphabet sounds like November 8, 2024 when NVIDIA replaced Intel and Sherman-Williams replaced Dow, Inc. That change was followed by a decline that started in February 2025. Based on the current chart structure, a change in a Dow component, and large distributions, it appears a decline is being planned for the near future.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2026 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. A total value of $820 billion in precious metal contracts were recorded.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation  Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R

Source: Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dollar: Non-Commercial Trader Position

The current U.S. Dollar Non-Commercial Futures Trader net-long position is similar to where it was in mid-June 2008. This by itself would not be out of the ordinary, but other futures products such as Copper, Euro, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P500, and Silver also have net-long positions that are similar to where they were in mid-June 2008. Just an observation.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Reallocation of Capital

On June 24, 2026 it was noted that the 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio was expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback. At this point the ratio is 0.994 as the S&P500 and SPY continue to decline. Market Makers did not disappoint on Friday with significant volume and the reallocation of capital. Volume was well above average for stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft. A pullback in the markets is still expected as volatility increases.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – June 24, 2026

As of June 24, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.59. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish, as they were on August 20, 2025.

With the end of the second quarter it was observed in Dow stock trading that investment managers, hedge funds, etc., were reducing their risk by moving into stocks with lower volatility. Very large seven figure block trades crossed the tape on June 18, 2026 (Options Expiration) as well as June 22 and June 24.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Put/Call Positioning

Between April and June 2026, Market Makers were in the process of positioning for another pullback in the markets as the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. The 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio is currently expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback.

During the end of options expiration week on June 18, 2026, the S&P500 rose 1.08% and the Semiconductor ETF, SOXX moved up 6.62%. The financial media provided investors with a positive outlook prior to a long weekend in order to keep them in the market.
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2% as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off

The type of activity mentioned above also occurred between December 2017 and January 2018. During that time the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. A decline in the S&P500 followed in January 2018 and ended in late March 2018, as shown in the following chart.

During the options expiration week on January 17, 2018 the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time with a 1.08% move. The S&P500 moved up 0.77%. The media convinced investors that the bull market was still intact prior to a sharp decline starting on January 30, 2018.
Dow spikes 322 points, closes above 26,000 for the first time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500/NASDAQ: IPO Trends

Over 400 companies had an IPO in 2000. Three out of the largest group of 25 were issued in the first half of the year. Anthropic and OpenAI have submitted an initial confidential registration form (S-1) to the SEC. It remains to be seen if they will follow through with an IPO. If they do, it could look like the first half of 2000 with SpaceX leading the way.

The 431 Companies That Had Their IPO In 2000

The 25 Biggest U.S. IPOs of All Time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Rising Wedge

While tech stocks are grabbing most of the attention, Dow algorithms have been working on developing a rising wedge since April 2026. A similar rising wedge was formed in 2008 prior to a three month decline. It would be prudent to pay attention to this since there is a high probability that a decline will occur.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer