On September 11, 2026 it was noted that based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers it appears they are still expecting a pull back in the markets followed by lower interest rates. In addition to this the 30-Yr rate is in a rising wedge. Taking an additional measurement on this pattern shows a 7.75 degree angle on the upper trend line. This is exactly the same as what happened in 2018. Additional time will be needed to validate this.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On September 17, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was reviewed. At that time the Swiss France/USD was 1.211. Today it hit 1.198. This declining trend indicates the NASDAQ is still expected to move lower. From the time the Swiss Franc starts to turn and move higher until the NASDAQ reaches a low is estimated to be approximately 3 months based on previous data.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The following is simple comparison of Oracle’s 1999 and 2025-2026 chart pattern. This is not, in any way a recommendation. It is simply a Deja Vu moment where Oracle Market Maker(s) appear to be repeating a chart and accumulation pattern. There are many pitfalls with this company, as noted below.
On August 26, 2026 it was noted that Oracle’s volume had taken on the characteristics of what has typically been seen as extremely large Market Maker accumulation activities. This is very similar to what occurred in 1999.
Grok provided the following summary: The sharp decline in 1999 was attributed to: – weaker-than-expected license revenue growth (database licenses ~+10% vs. expectations of 15–20%; applications ~+5% vs. ~20%), – a delay in shipping the Oracle 8i database – subsequent analyst downgrades – Y2K-related slowdowns in enterprise software purchases and – lingering concerns from prior soft results.
In 2025–2026, the stock declined to its current range due to: – Explosive capital expenditures for AI data centers producing large negative free cash flow and requiring heavy debt/equity financing – Heavy dependence on OpenAI contracts and skepticism about that customer’s ability to meet massive commitments amid its own revenue figures, ongoing losses, and “circular” AI deal dynamics. – Execution risks such as power/infrastructure delays at major sites, slower conversion of backlog into near-term revenue and profits, missed forecasts, and a broader shift in investor focus from growth backlog metrics to balance-sheet and cash-burn risks amid AI spending concerns.
Looking at this from a Market Maker’s perspective…..
When corporate insiders are selling, institutions and Market Makers are buying. The following shows their activity.
1,599 institutions decreased their positions
1,832 institutions increased their positions, including Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, Morgan Stanley, etc. Note that Susquehanna International Group, and Citadel Advisors (both Market Makers) also increased their holdings. Caution: Do not try to outsmart these groups. They can see your order flow and limit orders.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Without a doubt, the financial news media is a well oiled machine. If you wanted everyone to sell treasuries what would you do? Try the following news headlines.
Worst period in a decade
US Treasuries are bid-less
10Y highest yield since 2002
30Y yield is highest since 2004
Bessent considering increased Treasury buybacks
In the meantime, if you review the 2018 Dow chart and 2026 Dow chart you will find a striking resemblance. Between mid-March and October in both charts a similar pattern emerges. There is a high probability we will have to wait until December to see the end result.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
A review of the Engrbytrade™ 1975 gold model verified the current 2020 to 2026 gold structure shown below is similar to what was developed between 1974 and 1980.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In early 2025 the NASDAQ Composite started a monthly rising wedge formation that is still in progress today. In 1999 – 2000 and 2006 – 2007 a similar formation led to a sharp rally followed by a long decline. The current wedge formation by itself is not expected to have a direct relationship with a future rally or decline. Market Maker activity within this formation is what is important.
Extremely large block trades have been increasing in size and frequency at the close for Dow stocks such as aapl, amzn, csco, and nvda. In this case trades at the close have moved up to the 6 to 9 million share range. It appears Market Makers are working to raise prices and sell as many shares as possible to institutions, brokerages, banks, or anyone willing to buy them. If the NASDAQ breaks sharply higher in the coming months a long decline is expected to follow. If it declines quickly out of the rising wedge that will give Market Makers additional time to accumulate inventory before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. A total value of $664.9 billion in precious metal contracts were recorded. That is a decline of $155.5 billion from the first quarter with a level of $820.4 billion.
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
On September 11, 2026 the CME FedWatch showed a probability of 86.3% for a rate hike. After the Fed meeting on September 15th -16th they announced a change in the target range to 3.75 – 4.00. US10Yr rates rose quickly from 5.01% on September 15, 2026 to 5.29% on September 30, 2026. The US30Yr rate moved from 5.37% to 5.63%.
In the interim, Market Makers continue their accumulation of interest rate derivatives, such as TLT. This accumulation has been underway for three years, and is much longer and larger than previous periods, such as 2018. They are also accumulating US7-10Yr derivatives such as IEF. In both cases volume is more important than price. Market Makers and insiders are preparing for rates to collapse.
As always, volume, not price, is the principal guarantor of the markets direction.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 129
Over the last two years the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) has been a leading indicator for a decline in the NASDAQ 100. The following chart shows the XLU declined before July 2024, late 2024 and late 2025. All occurred before a decline in the NASDAQ 100. With the recent decline of XLU, there is a high probability the NASDAQ 100 will move lower. As the NASDAQ 100, and other markets decline, indicators such as the 5-day average put/call ratio should provide guidance on when a turn to higher levels is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Biggest Energy Shock of Our Lifetime. You Don’t Own Enough Gold- Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson explains why oil shortages, diesel inflation and global supply disruptions could hit the economy harder than most expect — and why he believes investors still don’t own enough gold.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In August 2025 the Utilities Index initiated a head and shoulders pattern that has matured and this index is in the process of declining. In 2007 a similar pattern formed and resulted in a sharp drop going into October 2008. In addition to this the Transportation Index is repeating a pattern from 2021 to 2022. The Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ have not initiated a decline that is similar to the Utilities or Transportation Index yet. Indicators, such as the Move Index, rising interest rates, Swiss Franc vs NASDAQ index, etc., show the stock markets should be in a decline. When a decline does occur, it could be swift, targeting a large number of stop loss orders.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The ICE BofA high yield option adjusted spread index has been moving in a pattern similar to that of late 2024 and early 2025. When the index dropped below 2.65 a decline in the stock markets followed. This was also the case in 2007. The latest readings starting on January 22, 2026 indicates a stock market pullback is expected this year.
January 24, 2007 = 2.63
April 26, 2007 = 2.63
November 8, 2024 = 2.63
January 17, 2025 = 2.64
January 22, 2026 = 2.64
June 17, 2026 = 2.63
August 27, 2026 = 2.63
On 8/23/26 it was noted that the data continued to align with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is still expected to move higher before making a long term decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As markets roll over, it looks like the Dow will move down toward its lower 38.9 degree trend line. Other factors, such as oil prices, interest rates, etc. will continue to put pressure on stocks. Sentiment is changing quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On September 13, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was shown in the first chart. In this case, as the Swiss Franc moves lower, the NASDAQ is expected to follow with a decline going into December. As this decline continues, the CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio 5 day moving average should be monitored. A move above 1.0 indicates the NASDAQ is within range of its low before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Since the invasion of Iran on February 27, 2026, oil (WTIC) went into a parabolic move hitting $119 on March 9, 2026. The price has dropped back to $100, but this will still have an impact on stock markets. Retail products such as gasoline and heating oil are also in a position to affect the public. Stock markets are still expected to pull back, and this will be a contributing factor.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On August 15, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was shown on the chart provided by @i3_investon X.com. A closer look shows a low could appear near the mid-term elections. Time will tell.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On August 4, 2026 it was noted that the 30-Yr was a in position similar to that of October 2018. In 2018 the 30-Yr moved out of its ascending triangle during the first week of October. This year the 30-Yr rate moved out of its ascending triangle in late July.
As of September 11, 2026 the CME FedWatch shows a probability of a rate hike is 86.3%. If that occurs, borrowing costs, mortgage loans, and consumer credit rates will move higher as well.
Based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers it appears they are still expecting a pull back in the markets followed by lower interest rates.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Between 2004 and 2006 the NYSE Common Stock Only Advance-Decline Line developed a rising wedge using a 36.34 degree lower trend line.
Between 2024 and 2026 the same pattern has appeared using the same angle in the lower trend line. There is a high probability it will drop below this trend line before the end of 2026. If Market Makers, etc. repeat 2006, the move down should be relatively brief before a final move upward. Sentiment indicators would be expected to provide some input for a change in direction.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On May 26, 2026 it was noted that the next move up is expected to be parabolic. A review of the Silver Non-Commercial Trader Weekly Net (Long-Short) vs. U.S. Dollar chart shows that a brief decline is expected first. Between October 2025 and September 2026 Non-Commercial Traders followed a pattern similar to that of October 2007 to September 2008. This also aligns with the expectation of a brief decline in the stock markets before the end of the year. Upon the completion of this brief decline another steady move to the upside is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Since early 2023 there has been a steady increase in the number of big block trades at the close in the 9 million share range for stocks such as NVDA and INTC. Recently, they are using two large trades at the close that appear to keep a single trade from going over 10 million shares. This could revolve around any number of reasons, but it comes at a time when a pullback in the market is expected. Will continue to monitor this.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On August 7, 2026 it was noted that the CNN Fear & Greed Index was expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s over the next couple of months. It hit a high of 66 on August 13, 2026 and moved down to 33 on September 2, 2026. At this point the index is repeating a pattern from early 2023. If the index drops below 20, it would be a tuning point for markets to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On July 23, 2026 it was noted that the NAAIM Exposure Index continued to follow the summer 2021 pattern. The Exposure Index data has since been placed behind a paywall, and evaluating investment managers expectations is not possible. In addition to the NAAIM Index, the New Highs – New Lows index indicates a very short term move to its upper trend line is possible before moving lower. This move is expected to happen in a matter of days. The S&P500 is also following a 8.99 degree upper trend line, just like it did in 2021. It appears time is short before markets start moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Salesforce is currently a component of the Dow 30 and a good example of how Market Makers accumulate stock prior to moving prices higher. During the first half of 2026 this stock was quietly accumulated in preparation for a 22% gain on August 27, 2026. This was based on a beat on their second quarter earnings forecast and expanded partnership with Anthropic. Market Makers were well aware of this and positioned to take advantage of it.
Accumulation of stock by insiders has a long history. DuPont was a component of the Dow 30 in 1974 when Specialists accumulated a significant amount of their stock. This was prior to issuing the February 1975 Economic Report of the President developed by the Council of Economic Advisors. The economy was in a recession with high unemployment, high inflation and numerous economic issues. Specialists knew the $23 billion Tax Reduction act of 1975 would be signed by March 29, 1975. They were well positioned to take advantage of this.
Richard Ney provided a DuPont chart showing this example on page 270 of his 1975 book, Making It In the Market.
