Intermarket structural analysis research
In less than two years, the following corporate high yield vs investment grade bond index experienced three declines between 2.60 and 2.70. The latest readings between July and August indicate another S&P500 short term decline is possible.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
Non-commercial futures traders have been quietly sending a message that they are expecting a change in the value of the Dollar. The number of long dollar contracts has been increasing while the number of short contracts declined since November 2025. This is similar to what occurred between September 2007 and August 2008. The end result was a sharp decline in the S&P500 and interest rates as the Dollar moved higher between August and November 2008. Based on Non-Commercial futures trader positioning the Dollar is expected to move higher as stock markets move lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
BlackRock Insider Reveals What’s REALLY Happening in Private Credit
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On July 18, 2025 a comparison of 2001, 2007, and 2025 NVIDIA five point charts was reviewed. NVIDIA completed a 5 point chart in 2002 and 2007 with a process that took approximately 1 ½ years to move from point 1 to point 5. During each process a stock split occurred during the 2nd year. The 2026 5 point chart has developed over a 3 year period with a stock split in the 2nd year. Since March 2026, very large 7 figure block trades have been crossing the tape at the close. This pattern is similar to what occurred in October and November 2024. During that time smaller 7 figure block trades crossed the tape at the close before a decline started in November 2024. This was after NVIDIA replaced Intel in the Dow Index. The current April to August 2026 structure appears to be similar to what occurred between July and December 2007.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Based on previous readings in 2024 this is expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s for the next couple of months. A pull back with a CNN 5-Day average put/call ratio reading greater than or equal to 0.90 would be bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of July 31, 2026, the NASDAQ monthly chart remained within its ascending wedge boundaries. You can see from previous major monthly market rallies and peaks, Market Makers and Liquidity Providers are consistent. Based on the 2000 and 2007 NASDAQ charts a significant monthly market rally is needed for at least three to five months before hitting a top. This is after it moves out of its ascending wedge. There will be declines along the way before moving higher. In the end Market Makers will be working to meet their corporate client commitments while selling as much inventory as possible to retail customers. This is just a merchandising operation. Market Makers buy low and sell high by design.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 25, 2026 it was noted that there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term. At this point we are right back where we were in October 2018. Jerome Powell started his term on February 5, 2018 when the 10-Yr rate was 2.7% and the 30-Yr rate was 3.0%. By October 5, 2018 the 10-Yr closed at 3.2% and the 30-Yr hit 3.4% after moving out of its ascending triangle. By October 10, 2018 stock markets started a sharp decline going into late December 2018.
Kevin Warsh started his term as Fed Chairman on May 22, 2026. The 10-Yr was 4.5% and the 30-Yr was 5.0%. On July 31, 2026 the 30-Yr made a steady move out of its ascending triangle structure, just as it did on October 3, 2018.
Based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers, a pull back in the markets with lower rates should follow.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Burt Dohmen discusses Wars, Famine and a 90% Crash Ahead – ‘Worse Than the 1930s’
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
If you are recording daily CNN Fear & Greed data you will see patterns and readings between November 29, 2024 (66) and February 20, 2025 (44) that are similar to what was recorded between May 7, 2026 (68) and July 31, 2026 (42). The Fear & Greed data runs in a cyclical pattern and is in the process of repeating a 2025 decline setup. The 2025 decline led to a CNN 5-day average put/call ratio of 1.0 on April 9, 2025, before moving lower. A market decline is still expected, but the duration will depend on options positioning. Upon completion of this decline, markets should continue to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 12, 2026 it was noted that overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term. Market Makers and insiders have been accumulating the 10-Yr (TLH) and 30-Yr (TLT) derivatives for some time now. TLH has seen serious accumulation activity since the first quarter of 2025. TLT continues to ride the 8.32 degree trend line with a steady rate of accumulation. Not unusual, but it appears Liquidity Providers are targeting stop losses along this algorithmic path. The “Bond Market” and Market Makers have control of this situation and it appears they certainly could drive rates lower based on any number of local or international events.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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After the crisis in 2008 subsided, market makers started accumulating Cisco as inventory between 2011 and 2014. The price rose slowly for several years until 2024 when it started going parabolic and hitting a high of 129 on June 4, 2026. Since the peak occurred, extremely large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape (at the close) between mid-June and mid-July. This type of activity is typically from market maker’s distributing their inventory. The end result is expected to be a situation similar to what occurred between 2000 and 2001.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 16, 2026 it was noted that a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. The Exposure Index continues to follow the summer 2021 pattern and investment managers remain bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On June 6, 2026 it was noted that the weekly Semiconductor index (SOX) would briefly decline before markets started moving higher. The SOX index did move lower between mid-June and mid-July. Since Micron is a component of this index, it provides some insight on what to expect. Back in 1999- 2000 everyone was afraid of the Y2K apocalypse and extremely bullish on the stock market. Money was pouring into tech stocks. Today trillions are planned for AI.
After the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000, Micron did not hit its peak until July 2000. Not much has changed. The 2026 chart below is showing similar structural patterns to that of 2000. It appears corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much and are repeating the year 2000. After the current expected pullback another brief push upward would be in order. A diverse change in direction for many stocks should be expected in 2026 and 2027. Some will continue to move higher while others drop quickly.
Booming stock market led by tech has some saying it feels like the 1999 internet bubble – October 13, 2025
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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During July 2026 Caterpillar moved from its July 1, 2026 high to a July 17, 2026 low for a 21.9% decline.
This is similar to the following.
a) May 10, 2006 high to a January 22, 2007 low for a 28.3% decline.
b) July 31, 1997 high to a November 14, 1997 low for a 26.43% decline.
Based on the previous moves in 1997 and 2006 Caterpillar is expected to move sideways in 2026 and 2027. This is also a very early warning signal for the markets. A brief pullback in the indices is still expected this year to be followed by a move higher in 2027. The Dow and S&P500 could hit their peak in 2027 with the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2028 before starting a significant decline.
.Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On June 11, 2026 the NASDAQ Hindenburg Omen 4 day moving average hit a peak of 3.0 and then dropped to 2.0 on June 19. It moved back up to 3.0 on June 25. It is currently 2.5 as of July 17, 2026. Since the 3.0 hits in June are not similar to previous years, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. The market is still expected to pull back between now and the mid-term elections.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 9, 2026 it was noted that a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July. In addition to this the Exposure index is in the process of developing a pattern that is similar to what occurred between June 16, 2021 (98.52) and September 22, 2021 (77.70). Based on this pattern a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. Investment managers are still bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Trading patterns within the Dow stocks are replicating what occurred in January 2026. Trades at the close are crossing the tape with over 8 and 9 million shares again. This by itself would not be a problem except the Dow is in a rising wedge format that is similar to the 2025 – 2026 structure. Other stocks that are seeing very large blocks are Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Microsoft trades are starting to move into the $3 billion range at the close. If we see another 1,000+ point day, it could be a problem, depending on what Market Makers have in mind.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was their first rate cut in four years. In late October 2007 rates started dropping until the end of March 2008.
On September 18, 2024 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was also their first cut in four years. Since their last rate cut occurred the 10-Yr rate has moved up 0.86% to 4.56%.
Non-Commercial futures traders are still positioned where interest rates are expected to fall. It appears the Fed, bond market, or both are waiting for something to trigger a rate decline. Overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On Friday morning, June 10, 2026, the news wire was hit with “President Trump agrees to continue talks with Iran, but says ceasefire is over”. Shortly after 10:30 a. m. ET algorithms picked on this news and immediately started repricing stocks relative to risk. Four and five figure trades in Dow stocks were running through the system hitting tight stop-loss orders along the way. This provided additional inventory for Market Makers and Liquidity Providers. After this repricing event they used this inventory to distribute stock while moving prices higher until the end of the day. The public looked at a market close that did not warrant their attention and moved on. The Dow closed up 149 points (+0.29%).
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of July 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 82.95. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on July 5, 2023. Investment managers are still bullish.
July 8, 2026
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 58.71
NAAIM Number: 82.95
July 5, 2023
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 50.49
NAAIM Number: 83.11
S&P500 peak: July 27, 2023
Dow peak: July 27, 2023
NASDAQ 100 peak: July 19, 2023
Based on NAAIM readings, 5-Day Moving Average put/call option positions, etc., a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On July 6, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin Non-Commercial futures traders net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. Traders are also providing some intermarket insight to the direction of the Dollar and Gold as well. Their Bitcoin positions have been building since the beginning of 2026 and link indirectly to the U.S. Dollar and Gold. Based on the latest data it is expected that Bitcoin will move higher, the Dollar will move lower and Gold will move higher during the coming months. The following charts provide a general direction for each.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On June 7, 2026 it was noted that futures traders confirmed their expectation that Bitcoin would move higher in the coming months. Net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. This still aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is expected to move higher before making a long term decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow and other indices work within a programmed range using a margin of error over the long term. When a shift occurs, as it did during the first four months of 2025, parameters reset and the system continues. This type of behavior was addressed by Richard Ney in the 1970s. Is it that simple. No. Today, everything is handled by high speed computers. There are also many factors that interact with these boundaries. Investor sentiment, liquidity providers order flow interaction with trader stop loss orders, news events causing a sharp change in direction are just a few. The Dow may bump against the current upper trend line and then move back down to the next channel as it moves higher. Still monitoring sentiment, options positions and very large block trades to see where the next turning point will be.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The Dow Jones Index continues to move upward on a path within a rising wedge, just as it did between late 2025 and early 2026. In addition to this, Alphabet replaced Verizon in the Dow Jones Index on June 29, 2026. Alphabet joins a group of Dow stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft, and NVIDIA that move very large seven figure trades on a regular basis. The inclusion of Alphabet sounds like November 8, 2024 when NVIDIA replaced Intel and Sherman-Williams replaced Dow, Inc. That change was followed by a decline that started in February 2025. Based on the current chart structure, a change in a Dow component, and large distributions, it appears a decline is being planned for the near future.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
