Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 14 2025

On May 1, 2025 it was noted that a move higher was expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. The upcoming 2025 pattern should be similar to 2019.  NAAIM Exposure Index charts shown below indicate investment managers have recently reacted in a manner similar to 2019. This move by itself is not an indication that markets will move higher or lower. But, when asset exposure moves  to extremes it is an indication that markets are oversold or overbought.

Markets are still expected to move higher. Confirmation is needed from Indicators, such as the weekly NYSE Hindenburg Omen index. As markets move higher, investment managers will adjust their exposure.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Silent Collapse List

On January 15, 2025 a list of 6 companies were identified for the Engrbytrade™ Silent Collapse List. Since that time the list has grown to 12 companies. These are companies that have not materially participated in the stock market rally over the last few years. Or, like Apple, they are in the process of breaking down. A review of 2007 was conducted for a comparison to 2025. Between 2002 and 2007 there were 10 companies that did not participate or were breaking down. Some companies have since been removed from the Dow, such as Alcoa and Citigroup. The Dow is still expected to move higher, as noted on May 9, 2025 based on sentiment and other technical indicators. But, this lack of participation with stocks breaking down is a risk that needs to be monitored closely.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 7 2025

To provide some context for the current NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.06, a comparison was done between the NAAIM 2019 and 2025 charts.  After the S&P500 declined in December 2018, the NAAIM Index moved up to 83.39 on February 6, 2019. After the recent S&P500 decline in April 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 81.06 on March 7, 2025. There were numerous reasons for market declines in 2018 and 2025. But, the reaction from investment managers was the same. Based on similar S&P500 chart structures and investment manager reactions, it appears markets should move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple’s 2025 Decline

Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: Volatility In 2025

In August of 2011 a series of events led to extreme volatility while stock markets declined. One event included a US credit rating downgrade by the Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency. Accumulation of bond related shares using very large block trades, along with similar TLT chart structures shown below, indicates trouble is on the way. It appears Exchange Insiders are preparing for volatility in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: 2010 vs 2025

Research indicates gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. This 2010 vs 2025 position is based on a representative average value of gold derivatives vs the U.S. Dollar. Gold hit an extremely undervalued position on September 27, 2022 and has doubled in price since then. A move to higher levels is still expected over the next several months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 30 2025

The NAAIM Index hit a reading of 59.92 on April 30, 2025. This is very close to the reading of 59.43 on January 2, 2019.  Note that patterns in the Dow during 2024-2025 and 2018-2019 are similar.  These structures were developed over a period of time when tariffs were being applied. A move higher is expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. They should follow the 2019 pattern. The charts below illustrate this comparison.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: S&P500 Monthly Chart

The Engrbytrade™ 1929 Dow Model has been updated based on positioning of the S&P500 monthly chart. The S&P500 monthly chart for April 2025 has a bullish long tail candlestick pattern. This is similar to what was recorded in March 1929. This aligns with other bullish indicators discussed in April 2025. Extremely large block trades have also continued to cross the tape. A move up into September and October is expected.

 

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Dow: Optimism Will Prevail

Market Makers, formerly known as Specialists, and bankers leave nothing to chance. Structures repeat based on the needs of Exchange Insiders. Tariffs in 2025 were the perfect motive to repeat previous structures from 2018 and 1928-1929. In both cases a rally followed ultimately leading to a significant market collapse. It looks like 2025–2026 will be no exception. Optimism will prevail as markets move higher.

“One can trade on the knowledge that the Exchange operates according to the principle “the best way to control history is to shape it yourself.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 258

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Waiting for October

During February, March and April 2025 Market Makers (and Bankers) pulled the markets back by using tariffs as an excuse. It appears Exchange Insiders are waiting for October, after the end of the fiscal year, before starting a significant decline. That is when the Washington D.C. corporation is expected to pay its creditors. Unfortunately, this corporation has trillions in debt and unfunded liabilities. They do not have the assets to pay their creditors and will do what ever is needed to to avoid it, including a market collapse. Time will tell. In the interim, a steady move up into August and September is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Depression Cycle Arrives in 2025 and 2026

Charles Nenner notes that a depression is expected to start by the end of 2025. A stock market decline should start by the end of 2025 and continue through 2026. Based on history, the last quarter of 2025 would be a logical starting point for this decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold

On March 23, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar would not be expected to move higher. Since that time the Dollar has continued to move lower as other currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, move higher. Gold has also continued to move higher. A comparison between 2005 to 2009 and the current move in gold shows two things. One, the Dollar is expected to move lower. Two, gold is expected to move higher as the value of the Dollar declines. Non-commercial traders will slowly move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dollar: 2017 vs 2025 Dow

On April 12, 2025 it was noted that as the U.S. Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008. In addition to this Engrbytrade™ trade markers identified in the following 2015 Dollar chart structure are similar to what was identified in the 2023 chart structure. This indicates the Dollar is expected to continue moving lower through 2025 and into 2026. A decline in the Dollar will affect the stock market. When the Dollar declined in 2017, 25 out of 30 Dow stocks moved higher that year. The Dollar’s expected move to lower levels also aligns with several independent stock market indicators.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 16, 2025

On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Exposure Index data courtesy of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Johnson & Johnson

Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver

On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Dow Stocks

Very large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for a select group of Dow stocks since April 1, 2025. Apple, Cisco, and Microsoft are a few examples. This type of action would typically be made by Market Makers in order to accumulate inventory in preparation for a move higher. While this is happening there are indications from S&P Sector readings that the current market decline is nearing an end. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

“To know your adversary, you must know his customs; to understand the influence that specialists [Market Makers] exercise over the market you must be able to identify the practices they employ to rig stock prices.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 85

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: Late 2018

On March 15, 2025 it was noted that a brief rally in the Dow was expected, but this would be followed by an increase in volatility. And, there would be a sequence of declines. It was also noted that there was no expectation of the Fed lowering its range for the federal funds rate. This is still the case. At this point Non-commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the 10-Yr Note. The current 10-Yr yield is in a structural position similar to where it was on December 11, 2018. While stock markets decline rates are expected to move lower just like they did in late 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 2020 Fibonacci

On March 16, 2025 a preliminary conclusion was made that a decline was expected in the coming weeks. Last week financial news media outlets, in coordination with stock exchanges, have provided a dire picture of global tariff policies that will force a review of corporate stock values. Hedge funds are liquidating assets and have been hit with Lehman-style margin calls. The most recent chart structure similar to what was developed in 2024 and 2025 is the 2019 to 2020 Dow chart. Based on the 2020 Fibonacci structure shown below the Dow should move down to 28,000.

On March 29, 2025 it was noted that between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape. All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appeared this was part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. On March 31, 2025, pension funds conducted the largest buy session on record. Market makers would have supplied a majority of the stock they accumulated in March.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Accumulation Process

On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc

Overall, the US Dollar has been moving sideways since January 2023. The following charts should provide some insight for movements of the US Dollar. Key dates are provided to illustrate turning points over the last several years. The last peak in the US Dollar occurred in October 2022 as Non-Commercial Trader data readings dropped below the 0.6 level in the following US Dollar chart. At this point a steady move upward in the US Dollar would not be expected until Non-Commercial Trader Net positions relative to open interest are below the -0.2 level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Gold/Silver: 2024 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts

On March 21, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to hold precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

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