On October 25, 2026 a review of previous Dow Index patterns revealed the end of 17 turning point patterns appeared in 2011, 2018, 2020, and 2025. As of November 4, 2026 it appears the Dow has made a sharp upward turn completing turn 15. It is very similar to what occurred in November 2018. The next several trading days should provide some clarity on the direction of the Dow. Based on previous charts, when the 16th turning point is complete, a sharp decline is expected going into the end of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On October 27, 2026 identical measurements on daily 2025 and 2026 S&P500 chart structures indicate a pull back is expected. Reviewing measurements on the monthly 1998 – 2000 and 2025 – 2026 structures provides a 59.10 angle for each lower trend line of their rising wedge. This indicates a larger pull back is expected in 2027.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On October 1, 2026 the Swiss Franc hit a low of 1.1928 and on October 6, 2026 the NASDAQ100 hit a record high of 31,361.37. Since that time the NASDAQ has started a decline while the Swiss Franc moved higher. If this is a repeat of the first quarter of 2025, the NASDAQ should move lower going into the end of the year.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Quick measurements of the S&P500 chart revealed identical angles for the 2025 and 2026 rising wedge. A 125 day moving average was included. This is used in the Market Momentum component of the CNN Fear & Greed calculation. If this really is heading on the same path as early 2026 it won’t take long to find out.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On October 1, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers were continuing their accumulation of interest rate derivatives, such as TLT. Currently TLT is in the process of following its own structure that developed during the last quarter of 2018. If the 2026 TLT structure continues to follow its 2018 pattern, short positions will unwind quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
A review going back to 2010-2011 identified a repetitive Dow Index pattern that can be seen covering various time lines. Each of the following time lines produced a chart with 17 turning points. Additional research is still needed to determine the reason(s) why these charts consistently develop 17 points. But, at the moment the Dow is in the process of developing its 14th turning point. Based on previous charts, when the 14th turning point is complete, a sharp decline is expected within a two month window.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On September 20, 2026 Non-Commercial Futures Traders continued to hold net long positions in Bitcoin. This is still the case. Bitcoin continues to follow the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is still expected to move higher before making a long term decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On October 16, 2026 the CNN Fear and Greed index dropped below 20 with a reading of 18 at the market close. The following charts provide some perspective on the meaning of this reading. Readings below 20 should also align with a follow up of a CNN 5-day average put/call ratio of 0.90 (or greater) before markets are expected to move higher. The reading of 20 on November 7, 2025 is a good example. The highest follow up reading in the put/call ratio was only 0.82 on November 21, 2025. That meant markets were not expected to continue with a meaningful move to higher levels. This was also followed up by a decline in early 2026. So, monitoring the CNN put/call ratio for a reading of 0.90 or higher at the close will start on Monday, October 19, 2026.
On September 11, 2026 it was noted that based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers it appears they are still expecting a pull back in the markets followed by lower interest rates. In addition to this the 30-Yr rate is in a rising wedge. Taking an additional measurement on this pattern shows a 7.75 degree angle on the upper trend line. This is exactly the same as what happened in 2018. Additional time will be needed to validate this.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On September 17, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was reviewed. At that time the Swiss France/USD was 1.211. Today it hit 1.198. This declining trend indicates the NASDAQ is still expected to move lower. From the time the Swiss Franc starts to turn and move higher until the NASDAQ reaches a low is estimated to be approximately 3 months based on previous data.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The following is simple comparison of Oracle’s 1999 and 2025-2026 chart pattern. This is not, in any way a recommendation. It is simply a Deja Vu moment where Oracle Market Maker(s) appear to be repeating a chart and accumulation pattern. There are many pitfalls with this company, as noted below.
On August 26, 2026 it was noted that Oracle’s volume had taken on the characteristics of what has typically been seen as extremely large Market Maker accumulation activities. This is very similar to what occurred in 1999.
Grok provided the following summary: The sharp decline in 1999 was attributed to: – weaker-than-expected license revenue growth (database licenses ~+10% vs. expectations of 15–20%; applications ~+5% vs. ~20%), – a delay in shipping the Oracle 8i database – subsequent analyst downgrades – Y2K-related slowdowns in enterprise software purchases and – lingering concerns from prior soft results.
In 2025–2026, the stock declined to its current range due to: – Explosive capital expenditures for AI data centers producing large negative free cash flow and requiring heavy debt/equity financing – Heavy dependence on OpenAI contracts and skepticism about that customer’s ability to meet massive commitments amid its own revenue figures, ongoing losses, and “circular” AI deal dynamics. – Execution risks such as power/infrastructure delays at major sites, slower conversion of backlog into near-term revenue and profits, missed forecasts, and a broader shift in investor focus from growth backlog metrics to balance-sheet and cash-burn risks amid AI spending concerns.
Looking at this from a Market Maker’s perspective…..
When corporate insiders are selling, institutions and Market Makers are buying. The following shows their activity.
1,599 institutions decreased their positions
1,832 institutions increased their positions, including Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, Morgan Stanley, etc. Note that Susquehanna International Group, and Citadel Advisors (both Market Makers) also increased their holdings. Caution: Do not try to outsmart these groups. They can see your order flow and limit orders.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Without a doubt, the financial news media is a well oiled machine. If you wanted everyone to sell treasuries what would you do? Try the following news headlines.
Worst period in a decade
US Treasuries are bid-less
10Y highest yield since 2002
30Y yield is highest since 2004
Bessent considering increased Treasury buybacks
In the meantime, if you review the 2018 Dow chart and 2026 Dow chart you will find a striking resemblance. Between mid-March and October in both charts a similar pattern emerges. There is a high probability we will have to wait until December to see the end result.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
A review of the Engrbytrade™ 1975 gold model verified the current 2020 to 2026 gold structure shown below is similar to what was developed between 1974 and 1980.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In early 2025 the NASDAQ Composite started a monthly rising wedge formation that is still in progress today. In 1999 – 2000 and 2006 – 2007 a similar formation led to a sharp rally followed by a long decline. The current wedge formation by itself is not expected to have a direct relationship with a future rally or decline. Market Maker activity within this formation is what is important.
Extremely large block trades have been increasing in size and frequency at the close for Dow stocks such as aapl, amzn, csco, and nvda. In this case trades at the close have moved up to the 6 to 9 million share range. It appears Market Makers are working to raise prices and sell as many shares as possible to institutions, brokerages, banks, or anyone willing to buy them. If the NASDAQ breaks sharply higher in the coming months a long decline is expected to follow. If it declines quickly out of the rising wedge that will give Market Makers additional time to accumulate inventory before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. A total value of $664.9 billion in precious metal contracts were recorded. That is a decline of $155.5 billion from the first quarter with a level of $820.4 billion.
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
On September 11, 2026 the CME FedWatch showed a probability of 86.3% for a rate hike. After the Fed meeting on September 15th -16th they announced a change in the target range to 3.75 – 4.00. US10Yr rates rose quickly from 5.01% on September 15, 2026 to 5.29% on September 30, 2026. The US30Yr rate moved from 5.37% to 5.63%.
In the interim, Market Makers continue their accumulation of interest rate derivatives, such as TLT. This accumulation has been underway for three years, and is much longer and larger than previous periods, such as 2018. They are also accumulating US7-10Yr derivatives such as IEF. In both cases volume is more important than price. Market Makers and insiders are preparing for rates to collapse.
As always, volume, not price, is the principal guarantor of the markets direction.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 129
Over the last two years the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) has been a leading indicator for a decline in the NASDAQ 100. The following chart shows the XLU declined before July 2024, late 2024 and late 2025. All occurred before a decline in the NASDAQ 100. With the recent decline of XLU, there is a high probability the NASDAQ 100 will move lower. As the NASDAQ 100, and other markets decline, indicators such as the 5-day average put/call ratio should provide guidance on when a turn to higher levels is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Biggest Energy Shock of Our Lifetime. You Don’t Own Enough Gold- Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson explains why oil shortages, diesel inflation and global supply disruptions could hit the economy harder than most expect — and why he believes investors still don’t own enough gold.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In August 2025 the Utilities Index initiated a head and shoulders pattern that has matured and this index is in the process of declining. In 2007 a similar pattern formed and resulted in a sharp drop going into October 2008. In addition to this the Transportation Index is repeating a pattern from 2021 to 2022. The Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ have not initiated a decline that is similar to the Utilities or Transportation Index yet. Indicators, such as the Move Index, rising interest rates, Swiss Franc vs NASDAQ index, etc., show the stock markets should be in a decline. When a decline does occur, it could be swift, targeting a large number of stop loss orders.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The ICE BofA high yield option adjusted spread index has been moving in a pattern similar to that of late 2024 and early 2025. When the index dropped below 2.65 a decline in the stock markets followed. This was also the case in 2007. The latest readings starting on January 22, 2026 indicates a stock market pullback is expected this year.
January 24, 2007 = 2.63
April 26, 2007 = 2.63
November 8, 2024 = 2.63
January 17, 2025 = 2.64
January 22, 2026 = 2.64
June 17, 2026 = 2.63
August 27, 2026 = 2.63
On 8/23/26 it was noted that the data continued to align with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is still expected to move higher before making a long term decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As markets roll over, it looks like the Dow will move down toward its lower 38.9 degree trend line. Other factors, such as oil prices, interest rates, etc. will continue to put pressure on stocks. Sentiment is changing quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On September 13, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was shown in the first chart. In this case, as the Swiss Franc moves lower, the NASDAQ is expected to follow with a decline going into December. As this decline continues, the CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio 5 day moving average should be monitored. A move above 1.0 indicates the NASDAQ is within range of its low before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Since the invasion of Iran on February 27, 2026, oil (WTIC) went into a parabolic move hitting $119 on March 9, 2026. The price has dropped back to $100, but this will still have an impact on stock markets. Retail products such as gasoline and heating oil are also in a position to affect the public. Stock markets are still expected to pull back, and this will be a contributing factor.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
