Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Options vs S&P500

On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – April 15, 2026

As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Put/Call Ratio Input

On April 14, 2026, the CBOE Put/Call ratio index dropped to 0.68. The last two times this occurred was on June 12, 2024 (0.66) and May 15, 2025 (0.68). At this point the Equity Put/Call ratio does not indicate that a top is near. Using this input, markets would be expected to continue moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Index Gap

On Thursday, April 9, 2026 it was noted that stock market indices opened higher on April 8, 2026 with a significant gap. This did not occur in a majority of index related charts in the extended session. Additional research shows a gap in the DDM derivative that could be filled within the next 30 days. This will depend on computer algorithm decisions to address this gap before markets move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: 2026 Decline

On August 24, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated the Euro would continue to follow a descending broadening wedge. Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations also indicated the Euro would move to its upper trend line. Since that time the Euro hit the upper trend line between 120 and 121. Futures trading data currently indicates another decline has started.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Extended Hours Trading

On Wednesday, April 8, 2026 stock markets opened higher with a significant gap. In some cases a pull back to fill this gap would be expected. What many investors did not catch is what happened in the previous extended hours session. A steady flow of trades through index derivatives such as SPY, DIA, UPRO, occurred prior to the open on Wednesday. A pull back is possible to fill specific gaps, but unlikely based on the level of trading conducted prior to the 9:30 open.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – April 8, 2026

As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Gold/Silver: 2025 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continued to increase their exposure each quarter in 2025.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation. Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R

Derivatives Report PDF Source

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Silver: $3.4 Trillion Economic Stimulus Package

Silver has had a history of rising rapidly one to two years after bailout and rescue packages are approved. The most recent stimulus package of $3.4 trillion is still expected to push silver prices higher in 2026 or 2027. Funds approved in this package are affecting corporate project plans, and military contractors are not too far behind. Commodities, such as silver, will be on their procurement list.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Silver: 2011 Pattern

On February 7, 2025 it was noted that the S&P500 was expected to follow the 1980 pattern. Since January 29, 2026 the S&P500 has declined 8.6%. Volume has remained relatively constant while the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio and sentiment indicators point to a very short term low. If this is the case, it would appear the S&P500 is following a pattern similar to 2011. Over the next several days, trading activity or geopolitical events should provide clarity to the direction of markets. A nominal decline of 17% is still expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: AAII Sentiment Survey

The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10Yr Non-Commercial Trader Adjustments

On February 28, 2026 it was noted that Non-Commercial Traders were holding a significant number of short positions. A slow and deliberate decline in rates was expected over the coming months. On March 10, 2026, Non- Commercial Traders adjusted their positions in what appears to be a preliminary move for declining rates. This is similar to what occurred on November 6, 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – March 11 2026

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Index Decline

On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Bitcoin vs. S&P500

On February 4, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin’s structural point was similar to where the Bitcoin Model was in March 1980. Bitcoin appears to have hit a low as the S&P500 starts to roll over. Just as it did in January 2022. This aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. A bitcoin move to its previous highs would be expected before a significant decline. During this decline bankers and hedge funds would buy as many bitcoins as possible. It is obvious that bankers are attempting to use the Euro as a model to develop bitcoin as a new “digital currency”. Will they be successful? That remains to be seen.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear and Greed March 6 2026

March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.

Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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VIX: Final Move

On October 15, 2025 an initial review identified the VIX was providing an early warning signal. The initial 3 point peak structure in 2025 was similar to the structure developed in 2011. As weeks passed this structure was compared to 2006-2007, and 2019-2020. The result as of March 6, 2026 shows this chart structure is very close to 2010-2011 with the final move starting on a 44.05 degree trend line. If this move continues, a rise above 55 would be expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 2026 Rate Decline

On May 24, 2025 it was noted that the 2022 to 2025 10Yr Note structure was duplicating the 2005 to 2007 chart structure. The 10Yr rate has fallen below the 19.3 degree trend line as it did in late August 2007. The Non-Commercial Trader chart shown below continues to indicate traders are holding a significant number of short positions. A slow and deliberate decline is expected over the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 25 2026

As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: IBM 1999 vs 2026

During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.

Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 18 2026

As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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S&P500: Rising Wedge Block Trades

The current rising wedge in the S&P500 appears to be very similar to the last half of 2024. This by itself could be something to be concerned about. What is striking are the number of extremely large seven figure block trades that have been crossing the tape since November 2025. As time passes, the trades have been increasing in their appearance and size. This includes companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. This type of activity also happened on a smaller scale in late 2024 and early 2025 prior to the S&P500 decline between February and April.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Stocks Decline

On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 11 2026

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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