Category: VIX

Posted on

NASDAQ: VIX vs. NASDAQ

On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 with a stock market rally expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets started moving lower. The following NASDAQ 100 charts provide a comparison to the position of the VIX. Based on Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations the NASDAQ is expected to move lower for the remainder of 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

VIX: October 30, 2018 vs October 31, 2023

Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations show that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018. This indicates stock markets will continue to move higher, as they did between October 30, 2018 and November 8, 2018, with an eight day trading rally. Based on this comparison, a brief rally is expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets start to move lower.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

VIX: 2007 – 2008 Structure

On November 15, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirmed the VIX would move below 22 to a lower trend line illustrated on November 11, 2022. This move was completed in late November as the Dow and S&P500 continued to move higher while Market Makers distributed their inventory. Since that time, the VIX has moved below 18 and is expected to decline below 16.44 based on a 1-hour futures gap created on September 7, 2021 that will need to be filled. The structural design of the January 2022 to February 2023 chart shown below is very similar to that of the chart structure created between September 2007 and May 2008. The details needed to create the current 2022 to 2023 chart based on a 2007 to 2088 chart structure indicates a significant amount of planning went into this effort. Additional data will be needed to confirm the probability of a repeat performance of 2008 in 2023.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

VIX: Final Gap Up

The VIX has been following a pattern similar to what occurred between 2007 and 2008 as shown in the VIX 2023 Outlook. On November 23, 2022 the VIX filled its August 22, 2022 gap. This is similar to what occurred between January 27, 2022 and February 12, 2020 as shown in the 2020 chart below. The VIX is currently in the process of repeating the final gap up that is similar to what occurred on February 18, 2020. This would mean that the Dow / SP500 would be expected to start a significant decline this week.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

August – November 2022

January – February 2020

Posted on

Dow /VIX: Filling VIX Gap

Over the last three trading days daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate Market Makers have been distributing (selling) very large blocks of stock as the Dow moves higher. This distribution process is expected to continue until the VIX gap (created on August 22, 2022) has been filled. This means the VIX will need to drop below 21.27 before moving higher.  The Dow futures gap created on 8/21/22 was filled on November 10, 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

VIX: October – December 2022

Weekly engrbytrade™ VIX calculations indicate futures traders are making preparations for a stock market decline. The VIX is also in the process of developing an inverse version of the 15-minute futures chart structure noted on October 14, 2022. This structural development indicates that when markets start to decline the potential exists for a move down into December 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer