Engrbytrade Posts

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S&P500: Structured Block Trading

In a process of structured block trading, market makers (and computer algorithms) have created the following chart patterns. While it has been noted that S&P500 futures traders are positioned for a decline, it appears Market Makers are planning to recreate a structure that is similar to what was developed between April 1, 2022 and June 16, 2022. Underlying data within the Apple charts show a total volume of very large block trades processed between December 13, 2021 and March 30, 2022 (point 1 through point 7) are within .01% of the total volume of very large block trades processed between July 19, 2023 and November 27, 2023 (point 1 through point 7). This would indicate a top is close.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: November 2018 Chart Structure

On November 2, 2023 the following charts were included with a comparison between 2018 and 2023 10-Yr note rates when the Dow was expected to move up to 35,078 +/- 1%. Since November 2, 2023 the Dow has moved up in a chart structure similar to what was developed between November 2, 2018 and November 9, 2018. On November 15, 2023 the Dow hit a high of 35,051.10. This move indicates 10-Yr rates could start to move lower sooner than expected while stock markets decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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NASDAQ 100: Filling August Gap

Market Makers took the opportunity today to setup a process of filling any remaining gaps going back to August 2, 2023 and distribute significant quantities of inventory as the financial news media encourages retail investors to move into the markets. This opportunity was coordinated with the financial news media based on lower than expected Consumer Price Index numbers. A very large gap was created in the NASDAQ futures chart today when the CPI announcement occurred. Large gaps in the futures market are all filled within a relatively short period of time.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: Fourth Quarter Rally

Engrbytrade™ weekly futures trading data calculation updates indicate the Euro is conducting a rally similar to what occurred in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and December 2009 to January 2010. Based on this update, there is an expectation the Euro will start to turn lower between December 2023 and January 2024. Additional data will be needed to identify a turning point.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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NASDAQ 100: December 2021 vs November 2023

It has been observed that structural changes in the NASDAQ 100 between November 10, 2021 and December 27, 2021 have similar characteristics to what occurred over a longer time frame in the NASDAQ 100 between July 10, 2023 and November 10, 2023. Underlying data indicates significant short selling occurred in the first half of November 2023, just as it did during the last half of December 2021. Technical indicators such as the CCI, Chalkin oscillator, and 15 day Stochastic are also in alignment between December 2021 and November 2023.

On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 and markets would move higher until November 8, 2023. As of November 10, 2023 the VIX continues to move lower with a close of 14.17. Stock markets are expected to move sideways during the week of November 13, 2023 while Congress struggles with the passage of a Government funding bill before November 17, 2023. Additional data will be needed to confirm markets move lower, just as they in in January 2022.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Dow/NASDAQ: Eight Point Decline Structure

The S&P500, Dow and NASDAQ are all using an eight point decline structure in their daily charts. This structure is typically found within a shorter duration, such as 1-hour futures charts, and was categorized as an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM.  Based on Engrbytrade™ VIX futures trading data calculations noted on November 4, 2023 and eight point trading model structure development, this decline is expected to continue with the potential for completion in the first quarter of 2024.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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NASDAQ: VIX vs. NASDAQ

On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 with a stock market rally expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets started moving lower. The following NASDAQ 100 charts provide a comparison to the position of the VIX. Based on Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations the NASDAQ is expected to move lower for the remainder of 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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VIX: October 30, 2018 vs October 31, 2023

Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations show that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018. This indicates stock markets will continue to move higher, as they did between October 30, 2018 and November 8, 2018, with an eight day trading rally. Based on this comparison, a brief rally is expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets start to move lower.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates/Dow: 10-Yr Double Top

On October 10, 2023 it was noted that the 10-Yr note charts shown below carry similar underlying characteristics based on Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions. Structural similarities of the 2018 and 2022-2023 charts indicates a double top in the 10-Yr note is expected when the Dow moves up to 35,078 +/- 1%, as discussed on October 26, 2023, prior to moving lower.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 2021 vs 2023 Structure Perspective

Daily engrbytrade™ structural calculation results have shown the Dow’s decline from July 21, 2023 to October 6, 2023 is similar to what occurred between October 26, 2021 and December 1, 2021. To put this in perspective, the move down from July to October 2023 is part of a long term process for moving the Dow to lower levels. The Dow is currently in a process of repeating a move similar to what occurred between December 2, 2021 to January 5, 2022 in order to fill the Dow futures gap created on August 1, 2023 at 6:00 p.m. and S&P500 futures gap created on August 2, 2023 at 9:30 a.m. This will also provide Market Makers with the means to distribute their inventory before moving markets lower.

Note: The Dow structure developed in the last quarter of 2023 is not expected to be an exact replica of December 2021.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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July 21, 2023 – October 6, 2023

October 26, 2021 – December 1, 2021

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Dow/S&P500: Sharp Rally Expected

Stock Markets have a history of moving higher within 5 trading days of Congress adopting a resolution for war powers. By November 1, 2023 a sharp rise in the stock market is expected to start.

Congress adopts resolution to support Israel

Biden sends War Powers notification to Congress following strikes in Iraq and Syria

Here are previous examples of Congress adopting a resolution for war or military force. All were followed by a stock market rally.

Oct 2, 2002
Congress adopts resolution for Iraq war

Jan 12, 1991
Congress approves use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution of 1991

Aug 25, 1982
Congress invoked War Powers Resolution for Lebanon

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: October 2002, 2022 and 2023

A closer look at the timing of Congressional military support resolutions, daily fear and greed readings, and block trading patterns revealed the following observations.

  • S&P500 chart structure Fibonacci measurements for the move down in October 2023 are similar to what was developed in October 2002.
  • CNN Fear and Greed Index readings between October 3, 2023 and October 27, 2023 are similar to what occurred between September 29, 2022 and October 11, 2022.
  • Very large block trade patterns between September 21, 2023 and October 27, 2023 are similar to trade patterns between September 19, 2022 and October 10, 2022.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Defense Spending

As the Middle East conflict escalates Congress adopted a resolution on October 25, 2023 for increased military defense spending. This is similar to when Congress said yes to the Iraq resolution, as reported on October 3, 2002. After adopting the October 3, 2002 resolution, stock markets started moving higher going into the end of 2002. A similar move upward is expected during the last quarter of 2023. This is based on the adopted October 25, 2023 resolution and very large block trades that continue to cross the tape.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: September – October 2022

On October 19, 2023 it was noted that the Dow structure was in a similar position to where it was on March 22, 2023. Additional research revealed the September 1, 2023 to October 26, 2023 Dow structure is very similar to its structure that was developed between September 1, 2023 and October 12, 2022. Large block trades are also in a pattern that is similar to what occurred between September 26, 2022 and October 12, 2022. A move up to 35,078 +/- 1% is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Futures Trading Data

The current 2020-2023 gold chart structure shown below is what would typically be called a triple top formation. This by itself does not necessarily confirm that a decline is expected. The underlying futures trading data behind this structure is important. In September 2021 and October 2023 Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations show that traders have been positioning their trades with the expectation of a long term decline. Similar moves occurred in 2012, and 1994-1995 as identified by arrows in the charts below.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: March 2023 vs October 2023

A review of large block trading patterns, comparable fear and greed index readings and engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicates the current Dow and S&P500 chart structures are in a similar position to where they were on March 22, 2023. This update indicates a move up to 35,078 +/- 1% on the Dow and 4522 +/-1% on the S&P500 are expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Market Decline Structure Setup Update

On October 12, 2023, it was noted that a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 is similar to what occurred in 2018. A detailed review of the 1973 vs 2023 19 point chart posted on September 29, 2023 against the charts shown below revealed that Market Makers shifted away from the 1973 model to a 2018 chart structure starting in mid-March 2023, just  prior to the start of interest rates moving higher in the 2nd quarter of 2023. A move up to 34,598 +/- 1% by October 18, 2023 is expected before starting a sharp decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow: Market Decline Structure Setup

On October 10, 2023 it was noted that the 2018 and 2023 10-Yr interest rate charts had similar underlying characteristics based on 10-Yr Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions. The following 2023 Dow chart also illustrates a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 that is similar to what occurred in 2018.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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