Intermarket structural analysis research
On May 18, 2023, it was noted that a significant decline in the S&P500 is expected over the coming weeks. The following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart update illustrates how traders are continuing to move to extremes beyond what was recorded on September 25, 2018. The following S&P500 charts also illustrate a consistent pattern within a Fibonacci range of 300% – 327.20% where a downturn is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On May 30, 2023 it was noted that the NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987. In addition to this the following charts from 2008 and 2023 provide some perspective on this move. Fibonacci is a guide. Detail calculations show the NASDAQ 100 conducted a 67.73% retracement from March 17, 2008 to June 5, 2008 before it started to decline. Today, a 67.73% move up from October 13, 2022 would provide a peak of 14,724.44 before a decline starts.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations for May 31, 2023 show a record decline reading that is the highest since calculations began in January 2019. It was also observed that a significant number of large block trades in the tech sector crossed the tape.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
With NVIDIA being the latest to hit the $1 trillion valuation mark, it should be noted that there are companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (Facebook) and Tesla that have faced declines after reaching their $1 trillion valuation point. The following history provides some perspective on this.
August 2, 2018 – Apple is now a $1 trillion company
August 2, 2018 – $50.216
January 3, 2019 – $34.67
Declined 30.95%
September 4, 2018 – Amazon becomes second trillion-dollar Company in U.S.
September 4, 2018 – $101.97
December 24, 2018 – $67.19
Declined 34.10%
April 25, 2019 – Microsoft is now a $1 trillion company
April 25, 2019 – $126.18
June 3, 2019 – $117.51
Declined 6.87%
January 16, 2020 – Google parent Alphabet is now a $1 trillion company
January 16, 2020 – $72.50
March 23, 2020 – $52.70
Declined 27.31%
June 28, 2021 – Facebook (Meta) has become a $1 trillion company
June 28, 2021 – $355.64
November 3, 2022 – $88.91
Declined 75%
October 26, 2021 – Tesla is now worth more than $1 trillion
October 26, 2021 – $339.47
January 6, 2022 – $113.06
Declined 66.6%
The November 22, 2021 to May 30, 2023 NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dot Com Bubble Wall Street Documentary
December 2, 2018
Today you can substitute “Dot Com bubble” with “Artificial Intelligence bubble”.
Intermarket futures trading data 10-Yr note calculations indicate that on May 23, 2023 the Dow was in a structural position similar to where it was on September 26, 2018. A 23% decline is still expected, as noted on May 21, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The development of parabolic structures is progressing. An Engrbytrade™ model representation of parabolic structures provides a comparison between the 1913 – 1933 Dow structure and 1993 – 2023 Dow structure. This parabolic structure also crosses over to the NASDAQ Composite, as shown below. A sharp decline in the NASDAQ is expected in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
JP Morgan’s Secret About The Fed And CBDCs (EXPOSED!)
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Between April 28, 1971 and August 10, 1971, the following 1971 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 839.60 on August 10, 1971 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between late August 1971 and early September 1971 before starting a decline that would end on November 23, 1971.
Between December 1, 2021 and October 13, 2022 the 2021 – 2023 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 30,038 on October 13, 2022 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between November 2022 and May 2023. It appears the Dow is in the process of repeating the 1971 structure shown below. Using this model, the Dow is expected to move down to 25,738 by mid- July 2022. This 23% decline would be twice as large as the 11.5% decline from October 7, 1971 (901.8) to November 23, 1971 (798).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On May 15, 2023 it was observed that a descending triangle was forming in the S&P500 1-hour chart. Since that time a broadening top formation has developed in the 1-hour chart. This formation is similar to what occurred between December 2021 and January 2022 prior to a sharp decline, as shown below.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 26, 2018, just before the Dow and S&P500 peaked on October 3, 2018 Jerome Powell said, “The economy is strong.” This was followed by a 19% decline in the S&P500 and a 24% decline in the Dow. On May 3, 2023 Jerome Powell said “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.” Another collapse is expected.
In addition to the May 13, 2023 near term update, the following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart indicates a significant decline in the S&P500 is expected over the coming weeks. This is similar to what occurred between September 25, 2018 and December 24, 2018, as shown in the chart below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Markets Are About to Be Hit With a Wave of Machine Selling Sending Stocks Crashing as Momentum Wanes
On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 3,887 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate S&P500 algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 3,872 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 31,465 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate Dow algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 30,808 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow and S&P500 calculations continue to indicate Market Makers are still in the process of distributing large quantities of stock during the latest 2023 time frame shown below. This process is described in Richard Ney’s books when NYSE Specialists managed the order flow. During the last quarter of 2021 Market Makers conducted a similar distribution process before moving markets lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on the 1973 Model Representation update shown below, the Dow and S&P500 are still within range of Point #14. It was observed that computers initiated a series of repetitive programs during the last week of April 2023. This is similar to what occurred during the second week of February 2023. A decline is still expected.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The declining S&P500 and Dow 1-hour futures charts are in the process of developing chart structures that are similar to 1-hour futures charts developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Based on this development, the S&P500 futures chart is expected to move down to 3887 by May 15, 2023 and the Dow futures chart is expected to move down to 31,465 by May 15, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow daily chart (and 1-hr futures chart) structure between March 1, 2022 and April 20, 2022 is similar to the S&P500 chart structure developed between March 6, 2023 and May 1, 2023. Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations and technical indicators show that upon completion a Dow structure this week that is similar to what was developed between March 1, 2022 and April 21, 2022, a sharp decline is expected with the Dow and S&P500 moving below 31,874 and 3,855 respectively.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
