Engrbytrade Posts

Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023.  Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17^th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.

Disclaimer

Based on the falling wedge pattern noted on March 18, 2023 and an update of preliminary futures structural data, a 28 trading day (+/- 1 trading day) rally to April 27, 2023 appears to have started today (March 20, 2023). This is similar to the move up between October 13, 2022 and November 23, 2022. Following this rally another decline is expected to continue into the end of 2023.

Disclaimer

The current falling wedge shown in the first chart is a repeat of September 2022. Completion of this wedge is expected to fill a gap located between 31,517 and 31,523 that was created in the Dow futures chart on October 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m. EST. A move upward will start when this is complete.

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Watch the 5-minute futures chart. It appears an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading chart was initiated on March 17, 2023 at 4:25 a.m. EST. It is currently on point 6. This move down could fill the 5-min chart gap developed above 31,517 on 10/25/22 at 9:45 a.m. before moving higher.

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A gap was created in the Dow 5-minute futures chart on March 15, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. EST. A brief drop below 31,691 to fill this gap should be anticipated before moving higher. Volatility will continue.

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Preliminary structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up until April 13, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). This is the time frame when Federal Reserve Meeting minutes from March 21-22, 2023 would be scheduled for release on April 12, 2023. Additional data will be required to determine a price target range.

Technical analysts should note that October 3, 2022 – October 4, 2022 and March 16, 2023 contain similar values for the following lower tier technical indicators. Default settings are included.

Commodity channel Index CCI (periods =14)
Stochastic %D (periods=15,%K avg=3,%D=3)
Volume Oscillator OSCV (fast avg=9, slow avg=18)
Relative Momentum Index RMI (periods=20,momentum=5)
Relative Strength Index RSI (periods=15)

Disclaimer

On March 13, 2023 a 3 point gap was created in the Dow futures index at 8:55 a.m. EST as the Dow started to move higher. On March 15, 2023 that gap was filled when the Dow dropped to 31,774 at 6:50 a.m. EST.

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A gap created at the NYSE market open on March 14, 2023 was filled by 3:12 p.m. EST when the Dow fell to 31,828. This was followed by a rally back up to a close of 32,155.40. Based on Engrbytrade daily calculations and sentiment readings for the last two trading days, a potential exists for another rally similar to what occurred between September 30, 2021 and November 8, 2021.

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It appears an attempt may be made for a move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%). This was originally noted on March 8, 2023. A move up to 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is still expected, regardless of a drop to 31,071.

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Dow futures hit a low of 31,787 on March 10, 2023. This was 1.3% above a projected high in a target range of 31,071 (+/- 1%) (31,381 – 30,760) on March 10, 2023. It is possible that the Dow may move slightly lower, but daily engrbytrade™ calculations show the Dow turning and moving above its high on December 13, 2022 (34712 on the NYSE). A target of 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is expected. This target is based on Dow calculation results between January and March 2023 being similar to what was produced between October and November of 2021, as discussed on March 7, 2023. A declining trend, similar to 2022, is expected for the first half of 2023. Ultimately, a market collapse planned for September 26, 2023 will take the Dow below 14,000, as shown on February 25, 2023.

Between March and August of 2023 various corporations, banks, and/or brokerages, etc. will fail, just as Enron, WorldCom, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers did  during 2001, 2002, and 2008 prior to markets collapsing between September and October.  Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank are just the beginning.

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As of March 10, 2023 at 11:00 AM ET the Fear and Greed Index was 25. Looking back, the index hit 25 on September 23, 2022 just five days prior to the Dow hitting a low on September 30, 2022.  Markets started moving higher in October 2022.

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The decline in 2022 is a reflection of what occurred during 1973. The chart below shows a trend line of 33.72 degrees below the x-axis and it appears this will be used during the first half of 2023, as it was in 1974. A move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%) is still expected to occur. Everything is planned.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer