As with silver, calculations continue to indicate Commercial Futures Traders hold significant gold short positions with the expectation of a decline. There is a 60% chance gold will have a repeat performance of the May-November 2008 decline based on Dow key events discussed in the May 12, 2021 post. Using the 2008 decline model would take gold down to 1424 (+/- 1%) prior to moving higher as it did between 2009 and 2011.
Intermarket structural analysis research