A summary of an interview with World Gold Council Senior Market Strategist, Joe Cavatoni.
The full interview: Gold’s Volatility Is Actually A Good Thing
Gold/Silver: 2026 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. A total value of $820 billion in precious metal contracts were recorded.
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R
Source: Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Gold/Silver: 2025 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continued to increase their exposure each quarter in 2025.
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation. Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R
Gold: Swiss Franc vs Gold
Research indicates non-commercial futures trader contract positions for Swiss Francs inherently provides a leading indicator for gold. The following charts show a relationship between Swiss France contracts and gold going back to 2018. The most recent signal on January 27, 2026 indicates gold is expected to continue moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dollar/Gold: Weak Dollar 2017 vs 2025
Between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 the Dollar declined 9.4% while gold rose 64.70%. When you compare this to the previous Trump administration where the Dollar declined 10.41% and gold rose 13.11%, it is not about the price of gold. It is about the value of the Dollar. Steve Mnuchin (Investment Banker) was the Treasury Secretary between February 2017 and January 2021. Scott Bessent (hedge fund manager) was appointed in January 2025. Based on their actions both Treasury Secretaries prefer a weak Dollar policy regardless of who is President. It is apparent they were looking for an immediate 10% decline in the Dollar during the first year of their appointment. After the 2017 Dollar decline, it retraced up to the 103.0 range before dropping once again in 2020.
As of January 20, 2026, Commitment of Traders futures data patterns and calculations indicated Gold, Silver, S&P500, and 30 year treasury bond (relative to the Dollar) were in a position similar to where they were on December 18, 2007. Based on this data, it appears gold and silver still have some room to move higher. As additional data is provided adjustments may be needed.
Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Janet Yellen – Feb 3, 2014 – Feb 3, 2018
Strong Dollar policy
Treasury Secretary: Steven Mnuchin, Investment Banker
(February 13, 2017 – January 20, 2021)
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 2, 2017 – December 29, 2017
1151.46 to 1302.45 = 13.113% increase
USD – January 2, 2017 – December 31, 2017
102.83 to 92.12 = 10.41% decrease
Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Jerome Powell – Feb 5, 2018 –
Treasury Secretary: Scott Bessent, Hedge Fund Manager
(January 28, 2025…… )
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
2624.38 to 4322.61 = 64.70% increase
USD – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
108.48 to 98.28 = 9.4% decrease
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Consolidation Phase
On October 4, 2025 data indicated that a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD would result in the start of a consolidation phase. On October 9, 2025 daily volume moved above 33 million shares as the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) moved lower. A slow consolidation phase should start from here. A change in direction would be expected if the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index reading dropped below 15.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: 1979 vs 2025
On June 30, 2025 it was noted that approval of economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially,this cost is exponentially larger than the economic stimulus packages passed between 1974 and 1979. The following charts are an updated comparison of how economic stimulus affects gold.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Watch GLD
Gold continues to move higher. On September 5, 2025 it was noted that the current peak in the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When this occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This is still the case.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Volume Needed for Consolidation Phase
On August 26, 2025 it was noted that the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This peak should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When that occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This happened after the July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020 bullish peaks. The next move upward is expected to start when the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index drops below 20.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
GOLD: Consolidation Period Starts
On May 2, 2025 research indicated gold was in a position that was similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. Since that time the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPDGM) hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This is similar to what occurred on July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020. Both dates were followed by a consolidation period in gold. It appears Market Makers have run out of buyers in products such as the GDX, and another consolidation period is expected to begin.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold/Silver: 2025 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts
On June 23, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to increase their holdings of precious metals contracts.
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
Gold/Silver: 1974 to 1979
On December 24, 2023 it was noted that during a five year period between 1974 and 1979 various bills with an accumulated cost of $129 billion were approved to stimulate the economy. What followed was a parabolic rise in the price of gold and silver. Between 2020 and 2022 $7.85 trillion in economic stimulus packages were approved. The latest Senate version of their “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” has an estimated cost of $4.2 trillion. Approval of this and economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially, over a five year period this cost will be exponentially larger than what was passed between 1974 and 1979. Using 1974 to 1979 as a model the following charts provide a representation of where gold currently stands compared to where it would be expected to peak.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: 2010 vs 2025
Research indicates gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. This 2010 vs 2025 position is based on a representative average value of gold derivatives vs the U.S. Dollar. Gold hit an extremely undervalued position on September 27, 2022 and has doubled in price since then. A move to higher levels is still expected over the next several months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold
On March 23, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar would not be expected to move higher. Since that time the Dollar has continued to move lower as other currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, move higher. Gold has also continued to move higher. A comparison between 2005 to 2009 and the current move in gold shows two things. One, the Dollar is expected to move lower. Two, gold is expected to move higher as the value of the Dollar declines. Non-commercial traders will slowly move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver
On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold/Silver: 2024 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts
On March 21, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to hold precious metals contracts.
Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
Gold/Dollar: Deflationary Forces
On October 12, 2024 three Non-Commercial gold futures trading points (1, 2, and 3) were identified in the following chart. What followed was a deflationary period where gold declined and the U.S. Dollar moved higher between 2011 and 2015.
Non-Commercial gold futures trader positions are currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three point trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6). What is expected to follow over the next four years are lower gold prices and an increasing value of the Dollar. This will be due to deflationary forces, which are not yet visible. It is expected to occur between 2025 and 2029. This also aligns with what was discussed on November 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Economy: Devalued Dollar and Market Collapse
Devalued Dollar Will Crash the DOW – Martin Armstrong
Trump might try to lower the value of the US dollar to help offset the trade deficit. Lowering the value of the Dollar will cause oil, gold, etc., to rise. The stock market could also collapse by 40% to 50%.
Gold/Silver: 2024 Q3 Precious Metal Contracts
On December 12, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to move into precious metals contracts.
Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
Gold: 2008 vs. 2024 Fibonacci
On October 12, 2024 it was noted that a move up in gold will have to wait. This is based on the completion of a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence. In addition to this the 2008 chart structure is similar to the current 2024 chart Fibonacci sequence. At this point a decline is expected in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Futures Trader Positions
On September 17, 2024 it was noted that after four years of economic stimulus packages gold was expected to move higher. A detailed review of Non-Commercial Gold Futures Trader positions revealed that, at this point, a move up will have to wait. Gold is currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6) shown below. This sequence is similar to what occurred between 2009 and 2011. After 2011 a decline continued until 2020 when economic stimulus packages were once again issued to bail out the economy.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Gold charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: 2024 Q2 Derivative Contracts
On September 24, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on PDF page 42 shows precious metals derivative contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. The banks continue to move into precious metals contracts.
Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks were required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Gold derivatives were considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Gold: To Go Parabolic
On July 10, 2024 it was noted that the current gold pattern was similar to that of the late 1970s. After four years of economic stimulus packages gold will move higher. The reason for this rise was explained in the Silver Ascending Triangle article posted on December 24, 2022. This move upward is expected to go parabolic, as it did in 1979.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
2020 – 2024
1975 – 1979
Gold: Pullback Is Expected
Gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was in the second quarter of 2022. A pullback is expected in 2024 prior to moving higher. This pattern is also similar to that of the late 1970s.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Signal Dates
On June 2, 2024, it was noted that structural calculations revealed gold was in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. In addition to this, a review of separate volume related interface calculations indicate a move upward is still expected. Signal dates from this review include March 31, 2020, September 16, 2021, April 22, 2024, and June 7, 2024.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
