Category: Gold

Posted on

Gold: Consolidation Phase

On October 4, 2025 data indicated that a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD would result in the start of a consolidation phase. On October 9, 2025 daily volume moved above 33 million shares as the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) moved lower. A slow consolidation phase should start from here. A change in direction would be expected if the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index reading dropped below 15.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 1979 vs 2025

On June 30, 2025 it was noted that approval of economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially,this cost is exponentially larger than the economic stimulus packages passed between 1974 and 1979. The following charts are an updated comparison of how economic stimulus affects gold.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Watch GLD

Gold continues to move higher. On September 5, 2025 it was noted that the current peak in the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When this occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This is still the case.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Volume Needed for Consolidation Phase

On August 26, 2025 it was noted that the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM)  hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This peak should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When that occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This happened after the July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020 bullish peaks. The next move upward is expected to start when the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index drops below 20.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

GOLD: Consolidation Period Starts

On May 2, 2025 research indicated gold was in a position that was similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. Since that time the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPDGM)  hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This is similar to what occurred on July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020. Both dates were followed by a consolidation period in gold. It appears Market Makers have run out of buyers in products such as the GDX, and another consolidation period is expected to begin.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2025 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts

On June 23, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to increase their holdings of precious metals contracts.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 1974 to 1979

On December 24, 2023 it was noted that during a five year period between 1974 and 1979 various bills with an accumulated cost of $129 billion were approved to stimulate the economy. What followed was a parabolic rise in the price of gold and silver. Between 2020 and 2022 $7.85 trillion in economic stimulus packages were approved. The latest Senate version of their “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” has an estimated cost of $4.2 trillion. Approval of this and economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially, over a five year period this cost will be exponentially larger than what was passed between 1974 and 1979. Using 1974 to 1979 as a model the following charts provide a representation of where gold currently stands compared to where it would be expected to peak.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2010 vs 2025

Research indicates gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. This 2010 vs 2025 position is based on a representative average value of gold derivatives vs the U.S. Dollar. Gold hit an extremely undervalued position on September 27, 2022 and has doubled in price since then. A move to higher levels is still expected over the next several months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold

On March 23, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar would not be expected to move higher. Since that time the Dollar has continued to move lower as other currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, move higher. Gold has also continued to move higher. A comparison between 2005 to 2009 and the current move in gold shows two things. One, the Dollar is expected to move lower. Two, gold is expected to move higher as the value of the Dollar declines. Non-commercial traders will slowly move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver

On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2024 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts

On March 21, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to hold precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Dollar: Deflationary Forces

On October 12, 2024 three Non-Commercial gold futures trading points (1, 2, and 3) were identified in the following chart. What followed was a deflationary period where gold declined and the U.S. Dollar moved higher between 2011 and 2015.

Non-Commercial gold futures trader positions are currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three point trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6). What is expected to follow over the next four years are lower gold prices and an increasing value of the Dollar. This will be due to deflationary forces, which are not yet visible. It is expected to occur between 2025 and 2029. This also aligns with what was discussed on November 23, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2024 Q3 Precious Metal Contracts

On December 12, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to move into precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2008 vs. 2024 Fibonacci

On October 12, 2024 it was noted that a move up in gold will have to wait. This is based on the completion of a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence. In addition to this the 2008 chart structure is similar to the current 2024 chart Fibonacci sequence. At this point a decline is expected in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

Gold: Futures Trader Positions

On September 17, 2024 it was noted that after four years of economic stimulus packages gold was expected to move higher. A detailed review of Non-Commercial Gold Futures Trader positions revealed that, at this point, a move up will have to wait. Gold is currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6) shown below. This sequence is similar to what occurred between 2009 and 2011. After 2011 a decline continued until 2020 when economic stimulus packages were once again issued to bail out the economy.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Gold charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2024 Q2 Derivative Contracts

On September 24, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 18 on PDF page 42 shows precious metals derivative contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. The banks continue to move into precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks were required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Gold derivatives were considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: To Go Parabolic

On July 10, 2024 it was noted that the current gold pattern was similar to that of the late 1970s. After four years of economic stimulus packages gold will move higher. The reason for this rise was explained in the Silver Ascending Triangle article posted on December 24, 2022. This move upward is expected to go parabolic, as it did in 1979.

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

2020 – 2024

1975 – 1979

 

Posted on

Gold: Signal Dates

On June 2, 2024, it was noted that structural calculations revealed gold was in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. In addition to this, a review of separate volume related interface calculations indicate a move upward is still expected. Signal dates from this review include March 31, 2020, September 16, 2021, April 22, 2024, and June 7, 2024.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Trend Upward

On May 26, 2024 it was noted that gold’s relative value against the U.S. Dollar was in a position similar to where it was on May 4, 2010. In addition to this, daily Engrbytrade™ structural calculations show gold is in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. A pullback is possible, but the trend upward is expected to remain intact in 2024.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Relative Value

Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold’s relative value to the U.S. Dollar is currently in a position similar to where it was on May 4, 2010. This is due, in part, to numerous U.S. Congressional spending bills passed between March 2020 and March 2024.  As a result of this spending, a move similar to what occurred between 2010 and 2011 is expected.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2024 Angle Rise

On December 22, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Gold/U.S Dollar derivative calculations have moved quickly in a direction that confirms gold is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure. This is similar to what developed during 2008 and 2009. Gold’s recent move confirms a 2024 angle rise of 44.43 degrees. This is similar to the angle rise in 2009. Gold is still expected to conduct a move that is similar to what occurred between 2010 and 2011.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Banks Precious Metal Contracts

On March 27, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Table 21 on PDF page 25 shows precious metals derivative contracts held by four major banks. This includes Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank and Bank of America. Figure 18 on PDF page 42 shows Notional Amounts of Precious Metal Contracts by Maturity for the 4th quarter of 2023. This move into precious metals by the banks continues to be consistent with data and chart structures discussed in the following Engrbytrade™ posts.

Gold: Long Term Ascending Triangle

Silver: Ascending Triangle

It should be noted that prior to January 1, 2022, gold derivatives were categorized with exchange rate derivative contracts rather than precious metals derivative contracts. This changed reported precious metals derivative contract values in 2022 and future years.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Silver Confirmation Move

On December 22, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Gold/U.S Dollar derivative calculations moved quickly in a direction confirming gold was nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure that is similar to what was developed during 2008 and 2009. On February 18, 2024 it was noted that Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving in a direction confirming silver is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure.

What is needed at this point is a silver confirmation move above its ascending triangle before both metals are expected to continue moving significantly higher.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer