The first chart shown below is the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y) within a broadening pattern. As the T10Y2Y oscillates within its upper and lower trend lines it has consistently provided major turning points since March 1989. The angle of each red trend line is 79.47 Degrees from the chart 0.00 value line and provides specific timeline information between the lower and upper trend lines.
- March 30, 1989 (-0.45) – July 15, 1992 (2.65) = 1203 days = 3 years, 3 months, 15 days
- April 7, 2000 (-0.52) – July 29, 2003 (2.75) = 1208 days = 3 years, 3 months, 22 days
- November 16, 2006 (-0.19) – February 4, 2011 (2.91) = 1542 days = 4 years, 2 months, 19 days days
Based on this timeline data and the weekly 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader Net (Long-Short) futures trading data, shown in the 2nd chart, there is an expectation that the 10-Year Note interest rate will continue to move lower in 2024.
