Interest rate futures data continues to show the 10-Yr Note rate is expected to decline in 2024. In comparison to this data, products such as the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF appear to be under accumulation by Market Makers with extremely large block trades observed crossing the tape since October 2023. This does not mean that the Federal Reserve will be the first to lower rates. Wall Street will be first in line to accumulate notes, resulting in lower rates as stock markets decline. When volatility increases in the stock market, the Fed will eventually step in to lower rates while the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” starts buying stock futures, as they did in December 2018.
Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.
The cultural response of most investors is based on the assumption that “if somebody is buying, somebody is selling; not for a moment is it recognized that, in most cases “if somebody is buying,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is selling; and if “somebody is selling,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is buying.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 150
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
