The following charts provide a comparison between 10-Yr Note non-commercial futures trader net positions and 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in 2018 and 2024. Following extreme futures trading net positions taken in September 2018, the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average dropped from 4.72% on September 27, 2018 to 2.67% on December 31, 2020.
Current futures trader net positions identified between May 30, 2023 and January 16, 2024 are similar to what occurred between May 26, 2009 and April 13, 2010. Extreme positions taken in 2009 and 2010 were followed by the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average dropping from 4.91% on May 28, 2009 to 3.31% on November 21, 2012.
Noting that the current situation is similar to what occurred between May 2009 and April 2010, a slow decline in the 10-Yr Note rate and 30-Yr fixed rate mortgage average is expected to continue through 2024 and 2025.
