On March 16, 2024 a comparison was made between 10-Yr Note non-commercial futures trader net positions and the 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in 2018 and 2024. Futures traders are currently repositioning trades with the expectation of declining rates, just as they did on November 13, 2018. This has placed the 10-Yr Note interest rate on a 2018 path shown in the charts below. With the current situation, a decline in rates is still expected during 2024 and 2025. Note that during the 2018 interest rate decline between October 4, 2018 and December 24, 2018 the S&P500 dropped 18.9%.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
