There is a 70% chance of a sharp decline in the 10-Yr Note rate before the end of 2024. This is based on the 2024 descending triangle that is similar to what occurred in 1982 and 2000. The reasons for each of the previous declines varied, but the end result was the same.
The latest 10-Yr Non-Commercial Trader Net chart is attached. In this chart the 10-Yr Note rate positions are near an extreme level, just as they were in 2018. The difference between the two extremes is the chart formations used during the topping process. In 2018 an ascending broadening formation was used. In 2024 a descending triangle is developing. The end result is both have the same goal of dropping rates.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Interest Rate charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
