Intermarket structural analysis research
On November 22, 2024 it was noted that Heating Oil (NY Harbor ULSD No. 2 Diesel) was expected to decline going into 2025. This is based on Commercial Trader positions, which are currently above the previous reading recorded on February 25, 2020. The descending triangle formation indicates a sharp decline is expected. Stock markets are also expected to fall.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
$HOIL chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 4, 2024 it was noted that a descending triangle was developing that is similar to what occurred between 2017 and 2019. In addition to this a similar setup occurred between 2013 and 2014.
NY Harbor ULSD No. 2 Diesel provides a predictive structure using commercial trader positions. Prior to the 2014 and 2020 declines, peak commercial trader positions were identified in the following Commitment of Traders data chart. This same setup is currently under development within a 2022 – 2024 descending triangle. A decline would be expected to occur going into 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
WTIC charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil is clearly in the process of developing a descending triangle similar to what occurred between 2017 and 2019. That led to a market collapse in 2020 when the pandemic hit. The current formation is not a coincidence.
A meeting was held on October 10, 2024 to discuss the development of bird flu pandemic vaccines. Participants included members from the World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, National Institutes of Health, etc. They also discussed mandatory vaccinations. One presentation explained how grocery stores can report customers who purchase food contaminated with a bacteria or virus on their rewards program card. If you did, the CDC can then tell you to quarantine for three weeks.
If this plan is not stopped, 2025 is expected to be a repeat of 2020.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On December 6, 2023 initial market calculations indicated crude oil was under accumulation. As time progressed, a descending triangle took shape in 2024. Reviewing CVX, it was clear that significant distributions occurred on March 8 and March 9, 2022. This completed Market Maker objectives above the $150 range. Based on the descending triangle in CVX, there is a high probability of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 23, 2023 it was noted that crude oil was under accumulation. Additional futures trading data from crude oil and related natural gas market calculations indicate crude oil is in a long term accumulation period. Crude oil is also in a similar position to where it was in November 2016. Note that as of 12:00 p.m. on December 6, 2023 WTIC dropped below 69.50 and fell within the accumulation channel noted below.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ intramarket energy derivative futures trading data calculations indicate crude oil is under accumulation. Calculations also show crude oil is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on March 31, 2020. Additional data will be needed from a move similar to what occurred between April 2020 and November 2020 in order to calculate a longer term peak.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intensifying War, Enormous Upside for Gold – Charles Nenner
The shift in Euro futures trading data noted on January 8, 2023 will also have a long term effect on the price of Crude Oil. Current data indicates crude oil is expected to continue moving higher over the next 12 months.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The deflationary decline in Crude Oil is in progress, as noted on December 21, 2022. The current January 2023 Brent price structure aligns with its mid-August 2008 structure in the charts shown below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on Dow futures spread data noted on December 18, 2022, and current December 2022 intermarket Crude Oil futures trading data aligning with data from December 2019, a deflationary decline is expected during the first quarter of 2023. This decline should be similar to what occurred during the last quarter of 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket futures trading data calculations confirm crude oil is in a structural position similar to where it was on October 23, 2001, September 9, 2003, November 1, 2005 and December 2, 2008. Crude oil is still expected to continue moving higher over the long term, as noted on November 20, 2022.
Since April 2020 Crude Oil has developed a 12 point structure (shown below) that is similar to what was developed between January 2007 and February 2008 due to the $2 Trillion Cares Act that was signed on March 27, 2020. Two years and 3 months after the Cares Act was signed inflation pushed the Consumer Price Index 12-month percentage change up to 9.1% in June 2022. Crude Oil is expected to continue moving higher as it did in 2008 due the next wave of inflation in 2023 caused by the $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan that was signed on March 11, 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
$WTIC 2020 – 2022
WTIC 2007 – 2008
Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate crude oil will continue to move higher and reach 110 (+/- 4%) before changing direction. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between February 2016 to June 2016, and December 2018 to April 2019.
In addition to what was noted on August 7, 2022, Heating Oil related futures trading data calculations support a decline in crude oil with structural attributes similar to what occurred between August 21, 2014 to December 31, 2014,
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate oil will change direction with a move down that is expected to be similar to what occurred between August and December of 2014. The chart shown above illustrates a descending triangle that has formed this year with oil starting to move below its support line. As the US Dollar continues to rise, it is having an impact on commodities and currencies such as silver, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc shown below.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Structural calculations and daily engrbytrade™ crude oil calculations indicate a move to higher levels is still expected to be similar to what is shown in the following chart. It has been observed that significant investments by corporations are occurring during the same time period that engrbytrade™ calculations indicate a move upward. At this point it is unknown if large corporations are trying to capitalize on an expected rise in crude oil prices due to limited production rates, Government funded carbon capture programs, or other factors.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Today, futures trader actions revealed their intent to repeat a 2008 strategy with a chart structure that will ultimately lead to $300 Brent Crude Oil. Based on several weekly engrbytrade intermarket calculations, crude oil moving up to $300 will drive the next stock market collapse.
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate Crude Oil (WTI) is in a similar position to where it was on November 29, 2021 and is expected to continue moving higher going into July 2022.
Disclaimer
Crude oil is still on track to reach 222.95, as noted on May 1, 2022. Calculations indicate the rate of ascent has slowed over the last month, but a Saudi price increase and limited OPEC+ spare capacity will result in an upcoming parabolic move that is expected to peak by October 2022.
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations continue to indicate crude oil will move higher. For those who prefer chart analysis, underlying calculations validate the chart below, which includes a Flag (pennant).
Daily engrbytrade™ crude oil calculations and structural analysis indicate crude oil (WTI) is currently in a similar position to where it was in early May 2008. Based on the current rate of acceleration, crude oil is expected to reach 222.95 by mid July 2022.
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate crude oil is currently in a position similar to where it was on December 20, 2021. Regardless of actions taken to release oil from strategic reserves, a move above $200 is still expected.
In theory, all indications show that based on growth of the Federal Reserve’s M1 money supply and Consumer Price Index, it appears the U.S. will repeat a 1973-1980 inflationary cycle.
In April 1973 a barrel of oil was $3.56 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $0.39. By April 1980 a barrel of oil was $39.50 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $1.19. As of April 5, 2022 overnight trading for a barrel of oil was in the range of $104.08 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump was $4.16.
Following inflation rates for 1973-1980 this would mean, in theory that the U.S. Dollar would decline in value to the point where a barrel of oil would cost $1,154 and a gallon of gasoline would be $12.69 by April 2029. This appears to be one reason why there is a dramatic push for electric vehicles and the end of gasoline powered car sales in states such as Washington by 2030.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicated traders are still expecting higher prices during the second quarter of 2022, even with a release from the strategic petroleum reserve. Structural calculations currently indicate a high for crude oil (WTI) of 226.89 before prices start to decline.
History is repeating with crude oil and gasoline prices moving higher just as they did in 2008. Based on the current Dow structure aligning with May 2008, the following news article from May 20, 2008 provides some insight on what occurred during this time frame.
Oil close to $130 after buying surge
The Guardian
May 20, 2008
