Category: Dow

After the crisis in 2008 subsided, market makers started accumulating Cisco as inventory between 2011 and 2014. The price rose slowly for several years until 2024 when it started going parabolic and hitting a high of 129 on June 4, 2026. Since the peak occurred, extremely large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape (at the close) between mid-June and mid-July. This type of activity is typically from market maker’s distributing their inventory. The end result is expected to be a situation similar to what occurred between 2000 and 2001.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On July 16, 2026 it was noted that a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. The Exposure Index continues to follow the summer 2021 pattern and investment managers remain bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On June 6, 2026 it was noted that the weekly Semiconductor index (SOX) would briefly decline before markets started moving higher. The SOX index did move lower between mid-June and mid-July. Since Micron is a component of this index, it provides some insight on what to expect. Back in 1999- 2000 everyone was afraid of the Y2K apocalypse and extremely bullish on the stock market. Money was pouring into tech stocks. Today trillions are planned for AI.

After the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000, Micron did not hit its peak until July 2000. Not much has changed. The 2026 chart below is showing similar structural patterns to that of 2000. It appears corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much and are repeating the year 2000. After the current expected pullback another brief push upward would be in order. A diverse change in direction for many stocks should be expected in 2026 and 2027. Some will continue to move higher while others drop quickly.

Booming stock market led by tech has some saying it feels like the 1999 internet bubble – October 13, 2025

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

During July 2026 Caterpillar moved from its July 1, 2026 high to a July 17, 2026 low for a 21.9% decline.
This is similar to the following.
a) May 10, 2006 high to a January 22, 2007 low for a 28.3% decline.
b) July 31, 1997 high to a November 14, 1997 low for a 26.43% decline.

Based on the previous moves in 1997 and 2006 Caterpillar is expected to move sideways in 2026 and 2027. This is also a very early warning signal for the markets. A brief pullback in the indices is still expected this year to be followed by a move higher in 2027. The Dow and S&P500 could hit their peak in 2027 with the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2028 before starting a significant decline.

.Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On July 9, 2026 it was noted that a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July. In addition to this the Exposure index is in the process of developing a pattern that is similar to what occurred between June 16, 2021 (98.52) and September 22, 2021 (77.70). Based on this pattern a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. Investment managers are still bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On Friday morning, June 10, 2026, the news wire was hit with “President Trump agrees to continue talks with Iran, but says ceasefire is over”. Shortly after 10:30 a. m. ET algorithms picked on this news and immediately started repricing stocks relative to risk. Four and five figure trades in Dow stocks were running through the system hitting tight stop-loss orders along the way. This provided additional inventory for Market Makers and Liquidity Providers. After this repricing event they used this inventory to distribute stock while moving prices higher until the end of the day. The public looked at a market close that did not warrant their attention and moved on. The Dow closed up 149 points (+0.29%).

 

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

As of July 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 82.95. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on July 5, 2023. Investment managers are still bullish.

July 8, 2026
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 58.71
NAAIM Number: 82.95

July 5, 2023
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 50.49
NAAIM Number: 83.11

S&P500 peak: July 27, 2023
Dow peak: July 27, 2023
NASDAQ 100 peak: July 19, 2023

Based on NAAIM readings, 5-Day Moving Average put/call option positions, etc., a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On June 24, 2026 it was noted that the 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio was expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback. At this point the ratio is 0.994 as the S&P500 and SPY continue to decline. Market Makers did not disappoint on Friday with significant volume and the reallocation of capital. Volume was well above average for stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft. A pullback in the markets is still expected as volatility increases.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 24, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.59. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish, as they were on August 20, 2025.

With the end of the second quarter it was observed in Dow stock trading that investment managers, hedge funds, etc., were reducing their risk by moving into stocks with lower volatility. Very large seven figure block trades crossed the tape on June 18, 2026 (Options Expiration) as well as June 22 and June 24.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Between April and June 2026, Market Makers were in the process of positioning for another pullback in the markets as the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. The 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio is currently expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback.

During the end of options expiration week on June 18, 2026, the S&P500 rose 1.08% and the Semiconductor ETF, SOXX moved up 6.62%. The financial media provided investors with a positive outlook prior to a long weekend in order to keep them in the market.
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2% as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off

The type of activity mentioned above also occurred between December 2017 and January 2018. During that time the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. A decline in the S&P500 followed in January 2018 and ended in late March 2018, as shown in the following chart.

During the options expiration week on January 17, 2018 the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time with a 1.08% move. The S&P500 moved up 0.77%. The media convinced investors that the bull market was still intact prior to a sharp decline starting on January 30, 2018.
Dow spikes 322 points, closes above 26,000 for the first time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 17, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 92.83. This position is similar to where it was on August 6, 2025 with a reading of 96.25. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Up to this point Microsoft’s (MSFT) stock price is in a structural position similar to where it was in July 2000. This time AI is involved. On March 31, 2026 it was noted that Microsoft closed their worst (first) quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. It is interesting that the Microsoft Market Maker, exchange insiders, etc., are using a similar price structure from 2000. It is also unknown if this same pattern will continue. But, if it does the outlook for MSFT is not good.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 10, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 79.27. This position is similar to where it was on July 23, 2025 with a reading of 81.07. For the moment the index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

While markets move lower at an increasing rate, the CNN Fear & Greed Index will adjust accordingly. Two key readings have been under observation at market lows over the last few years that fall into the following parameters.
1. CNN Fear & Greed Index less than or equal to 20.
2. CNN Put and Call Options Index greater than or equal to 0.90.
Generally, when readings have met these parameters at the same time, markets are in, or are moving into, a range of another low as shown in the following chart.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Disclaimer

It is apparent that Market Maker and Liquidity Provider algorithms are providing a road map for Apple based on its 2024 structure. A move below the lower trend line will indicate a steady short term decline is in progress. This will provide all the liquidity needed for exchange insiders when markets turn and move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The SOX Semiconductor Index finished the week with a 4.74% decline and a very long shooting star candle. Semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Micron, and NVIDIA also ended lower with similar candles for the week. Typically, a sharp decline would be expected to follow this type of candle. But, the Fear & Greed cycle has already moved into the Fear category, as it did in late 2022. It hit a low of 35 on December 30, 2022 before the S&P500 and NASDAQ started moving higher. At this point a brief decline would be expected before markets start moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Disclaimer

As of June 3, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.82. This position is similar to July 9, 2025. What followed in 2025 was the Dow moved sideways with a quick drop at the end of July, after the Fed Reserve Meeting on July 29-30, 2025. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. A quick decline after this meeting would not be a surprise. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of May 27, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved to 98.39. Up until May 13, 2026 patterns in the index were similar to late 2024. Currently the index resembles 2025. The February – April 2025 broad based sell off, due to an increase in tariffs, pulled the index down to 35.16 before recovering in May and June. The latest decline, due to the Iran war, started in February 2026 and pulled the index down to 60.24. During this decline buyers were focused on technology stocks, as shown in the Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV). Heavy volume between February and April indicated insiders, market makers, etc. were buying whatever they could. This type of activity should push markets higher going into the summer months.  Investment Managers remain bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

After several weeks of watching a sharp rise in stock markets during April and May, investor optimism would be expected to move higher. In this case Investment Managers were optimistic, but AAII investors were not. The Fear & Greed indicator did not move above the Greed range. It appears retail investors are in a holding pattern waiting for a resolution to the middle east conflict, higher gas prices, inflation, layoffs, and more. The following charts show a snapshot of investor sentiment.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

AAII Sentiment Survey – https://www.aaii.com/sentiment-survey

CNN Fear & Greed Index – https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

NAAIM Exposure Index – https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer