Category: Dow

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Dollar: 2017 vs 2025 Dow

On April 12, 2025 it was noted that as the U.S. Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008. In addition to this Engrbytrade™ trade markers identified in the following 2015 Dollar chart structure are similar to what was identified in the 2023 chart structure. This indicates the Dollar is expected to continue moving lower through 2025 and into 2026. A decline in the Dollar will affect the stock market. When the Dollar declined in 2017, 25 out of 30 Dow stocks moved higher that year. The Dollar’s expected move to lower levels also aligns with several independent stock market indicators.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 16, 2025

On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Exposure Index data courtesy of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Johnson & Johnson

Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Dow Stocks

Very large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for a select group of Dow stocks since April 1, 2025. Apple, Cisco, and Microsoft are a few examples. This type of action would typically be made by Market Makers in order to accumulate inventory in preparation for a move higher. While this is happening there are indications from S&P Sector readings that the current market decline is nearing an end. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

“To know your adversary, you must know his customs; to understand the influence that specialists [Market Makers] exercise over the market you must be able to identify the practices they employ to rig stock prices.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 85

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 2020 Fibonacci

On March 16, 2025 a preliminary conclusion was made that a decline was expected in the coming weeks. Last week financial news media outlets, in coordination with stock exchanges, have provided a dire picture of global tariff policies that will force a review of corporate stock values. Hedge funds are liquidating assets and have been hit with Lehman-style margin calls. The most recent chart structure similar to what was developed in 2024 and 2025 is the 2019 to 2020 Dow chart. Based on the 2020 Fibonacci structure shown below the Dow should move down to 28,000.

On March 29, 2025 it was noted that between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape. All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appeared this was part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. On March 31, 2025, pension funds conducted the largest buy session on record. Market makers would have supplied a majority of the stock they accumulated in March.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Accumulation Process

On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple Market Maker

After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.

Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.

Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.

Step 3. Fear: March 4, 2025 through March 8, 2025
March 4, 2024, CNBC discussed the potential impact tariffs will have on Apple.

March 8, 2025,  Forbes Article– Apple Stock To Fall 30%?

Step 4. Sell: March 10, 2025

Market Makers accelerate the decline with a 4.8% drop during the day.

Step 5. Extreme Fear: March 11, 2025

The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 13.

Step 6. Buy: March 18, 2025

Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of  $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.

Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: 1973 vs 2025 Dow Index

On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.

1. Alignment of the 2018 and 2025 US 10-Yr Note vs 2025 Dow index.

2. Indications of capital moving to Swiss Francs.

3. The expectation of crude oil moving lower.

4. Market Maker accumulation of TLT.

5. The growing number of Dow stocks collapsing since 2020.

6. Engrbytrade markers pointing to a decline going into the end of 2026

7. As of November 9, 2024 the Buffett Indicator (Market Valuation to GDP) was 209%.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates/Dow: Current Data Alignment

On January 14, 2025 it was noted that the 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader net position continued to remain in an extreme range away from the mean. This is still the case indicating the current data aligns with October 30, 2018. The following charts illustrate this alignment between the 10-Yr Note and Dow. A brief rally in the Dow is expected, but this will be followed by an increase in volatility, and a sequence of declines. As of March 14, 2025, the 10-Yr Note structural position aligned with the October 30, 2018 position. There is no expectation of the Fed lowering its range for the federal funds rate.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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2018

2025

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – March 12, 2025

On March 10, 2025 it was reported that hedge funds were unwinding risk just as they did in the early days of COVID. On March 11, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 17. During the trading day the index hit a low of 13. On March 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 68.80. The following NAAIM chart is an update of an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points. This chart illustrates how Fear & Greed Index lows are following a trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move sideways for at least one week. This could last as long as 30 days before moving higher.

In addition to this, the CNN “Safe Haven Demand” chart shown below provides some perspective on the long term performance expectations between stocks and bonds. The last low point was on August 5, 2024.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – March 5, 2025

On March 4, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 22. During the trading day the index hit a low of 14. On March 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 74.96. The following chart provides an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points on top of the NAAIM Exposure Index. This chart illustrates how three out of five Fear & Greed Index lows are in alignment on the same NAAIM trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move higher for the next four months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers

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Dow: 1929 vs 2025

On February 28, 2025 the Fear and Greed Index hit a low of 15 during the trading day. Over the last two years when the index dropped between 14 and 17 stock markets continued to move higher. To put this in perspective with 1929 vs 2025, the following charts align with current calculations. The 1929 chart shows a 300% move based on the May 1929 decline structure. The current Dow structure has moved 200% based on the 2022 decline structure. In this case the Dow is in a position similar to where it was in July 1929 and would be expected to move above 50,000. This will cause retail investors to chase stock markets and should be monitored closely for any significant change in direction.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Canadian Dollar

On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started moving higher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.

Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.

The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.

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Dow: Eight Point Trading Model – February 25, 2025

On December 10, 2024 it was noted that the Dow was going through a process of completing a short term Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. The first chart shows the final results. The second chart identifies a new preliminary Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure that was initiated on February 14, 2025. This decline is not complete and it is a clear case of algorithms controlling the decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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U.S. Dollar: Major Signals from 2011

There are major signals from 2011 that are repeating today.
They include:
1. A significant accumulation of TLT,
2. Extreme futures trader positions in the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, 10-Yr Note, and
3. The completion of a gold cycle.

In addition to the above signals a silent collapse of Dow stocks is in progress.

Based on the above signals a significant event is coming in the weeks ahead and would be expected to shake the financial system. It may not have an immediate impact on stock markets, but the flight to safety will be obvious. Interest rates will decline. A short quick decline in the stock market could occur, but affected stocks will drop dramatically as the year progresses. This also means the U.S. Dollar will start a long term trend to move higher over the next several years. Gold will immediately hit a peak and then start a long term decline as the Dollar moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar/Dow/S&P500: Move to Swiss Francs

The following charts indicate Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders are near the end of a short selling cycle. Based on Commercial Trader positions, countries repatriating gold, tariffs, etc., banks, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and global corporations expect stock market and currency volatility in 2025 and 2026. They will move to Swiss Francs, among other stable assets, for safety just as they did in 2019 and 2020.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Currency chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: British Pound Connection

On July 23, 2024 British Pound Non-Commercial Futures Trader positions hit a record level. This British Pound connection has an intermarket relationship with U.S. stock markets. On July 17, 2007 British Pound Non-Commercial Trader positions peaked, as shown below. This was followed by a decline in the British Pound and U.S. stock markets in 2008. The British Pound just moved into a position that is similar to where it was in March 2008. Futures trader positions indicate a significant amount of capital is moving in preparation for a major stock market decline in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Decrease In Volume

During the first seven trading days of February 2025 there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of six and seven figure block trades within the Dow. This includes AXP, BA, CAT, GS, HD, HON, MCD, MMM, SHW, TRV, and UNH. This decrease in volume can also be observed in the following chart as the S&P500 moves through a rising wedge. Either someone cut off a funding source(s) or Market Makers are waiting for something.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Walmart Going Parabolic

A previous post on February 3, 2025 noted that a global financial crisis is on the way. A closer look at Dow stocks on an arithmetic scale shows that it can be interesting to watch companies such as Walmart going parabolic. Walmart may stall, as it did in 2000 and move sideways for several years. But after Walmart hit its peak in 2000, the “tech bubble” popped and brought about losses that are still discussed today. There are numerous headlines about reducing the debt, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos selling stock, jobs, inflation, etc., etc. What is important are the positions that Market Makers are taking to setup for a decline. Since they run a “merchandising operation”, sales to pension funds, hedge funds, and large institutions would be in order at this point. In January 2025 there was a significant increase in the number of extremely large blocks of stock crossing the tape. As this occurred, active investment managers increased their exposure between the end of January and beginning of February.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Global Financial Crisis

On December 19, 2024 it was noted that over the last several years Market Makers have been working on a parabolic structure for IBM. The following IBM charts include Engrbytrade™ markers within the structures. Connecting markers between 2010 and 2025 shows a projected low in the $60 to $70 range by mid- 2026. This aligns with the following S&P500 chart showing a projected low in 2026. A similar collapse occurred with Intel between April 2021 and February 2025. Markers still indicate Intel could drop below $10.

The following charts are also an indication that a global financial crisis is on the way. In 1987, Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued the “Stock Market Crash of 1987” essay. They included the following point. “….a new product from US investment firms, known as “portfolio insurance,” had become very popular. It included extensive use of options and derivatives and accelerated the crash’s pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling.”

Today the growth of derivatives continues toward estimated values as high as $2.3 quadrillion. New speculative products such as Zero-Day options, Bitcoin ETFs, etc. are just a repeat of what led up to the 1987 crash.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – January 29, 2025

Based on extremely large block trades crossing the tape over the last four weeks, it appears capital has been moving out of stocks. This aligns with what occurred in August 2022 and August 2023 when active managers were reducing their risk exposure. In order for a sustainable rally to continue the index would first need to drop below the lower trend line with a reading of 60 or below. This would provide Market Makers with an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving prices higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers

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Dow: 2025 Algorithms

On November 9, 2024 it appeared that Market Makers were using algorithms to reproduce mathematical relationships used in the 2018 Dow chart structure. The first chart shown below is an extension of the January – November 2024 chart. It shows 2025 algorithms are definitely continuing to build out a replica of the 2019 – 2020 Dow structure. It appears a decline is near.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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