Category: Dow

As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On June 24, 2026 it was noted that the 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio was expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback. At this point the ratio is 0.994 as the S&P500 and SPY continue to decline. Market Makers did not disappoint on Friday with significant volume and the reallocation of capital. Volume was well above average for stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft. A pullback in the markets is still expected as volatility increases.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 24, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.59. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish, as they were on August 20, 2025.

With the end of the second quarter it was observed in Dow stock trading that investment managers, hedge funds, etc., were reducing their risk by moving into stocks with lower volatility. Very large seven figure block trades crossed the tape on June 18, 2026 (Options Expiration) as well as June 22 and June 24.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Between April and June 2026, Market Makers were in the process of positioning for another pullback in the markets as the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. The 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio is currently expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback.

During the end of options expiration week on June 18, 2026, the S&P500 rose 1.08% and the Semiconductor ETF, SOXX moved up 6.62%. The financial media provided investors with a positive outlook prior to a long weekend in order to keep them in the market.
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2% as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off

The type of activity mentioned above also occurred between December 2017 and January 2018. During that time the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. A decline in the S&P500 followed in January 2018 and ended in late March 2018, as shown in the following chart.

During the options expiration week on January 17, 2018 the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time with a 1.08% move. The S&P500 moved up 0.77%. The media convinced investors that the bull market was still intact prior to a sharp decline starting on January 30, 2018.
Dow spikes 322 points, closes above 26,000 for the first time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 17, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 92.83. This position is similar to where it was on August 6, 2025 with a reading of 96.25. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Up to this point Microsoft’s (MSFT) stock price is in a structural position similar to where it was in July 2000. This time AI is involved. On March 31, 2026 it was noted that Microsoft closed their worst (first) quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. It is interesting that the Microsoft Market Maker, exchange insiders, etc., are using a similar price structure from 2000. It is also unknown if this same pattern will continue. But, if it does the outlook for MSFT is not good.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of June 10, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 79.27. This position is similar to where it was on July 23, 2025 with a reading of 81.07. For the moment the index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

While markets move lower at an increasing rate, the CNN Fear & Greed Index will adjust accordingly. Two key readings have been under observation at market lows over the last few years that fall into the following parameters.
1. CNN Fear & Greed Index less than or equal to 20.
2. CNN Put and Call Options Index greater than or equal to 0.90.
Generally, when readings have met these parameters at the same time, markets are in, or are moving into, a range of another low as shown in the following chart.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Disclaimer

It is apparent that Market Maker and Liquidity Provider algorithms are providing a road map for Apple based on its 2024 structure. A move below the lower trend line will indicate a steady short term decline is in progress. This will provide all the liquidity needed for exchange insiders when markets turn and move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The SOX Semiconductor Index finished the week with a 4.74% decline and a very long shooting star candle. Semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Micron, and NVIDIA also ended lower with similar candles for the week. Typically, a sharp decline would be expected to follow this type of candle. But, the Fear & Greed cycle has already moved into the Fear category, as it did in late 2022. It hit a low of 35 on December 30, 2022 before the S&P500 and NASDAQ started moving higher. At this point a brief decline would be expected before markets start moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Disclaimer

As of June 3, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.82. This position is similar to July 9, 2025. What followed in 2025 was the Dow moved sideways with a quick drop at the end of July, after the Fed Reserve Meeting on July 29-30, 2025. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. A quick decline after this meeting would not be a surprise. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of May 27, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved to 98.39. Up until May 13, 2026 patterns in the index were similar to late 2024. Currently the index resembles 2025. The February – April 2025 broad based sell off, due to an increase in tariffs, pulled the index down to 35.16 before recovering in May and June. The latest decline, due to the Iran war, started in February 2026 and pulled the index down to 60.24. During this decline buyers were focused on technology stocks, as shown in the Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV). Heavy volume between February and April indicated insiders, market makers, etc. were buying whatever they could. This type of activity should push markets higher going into the summer months.  Investment Managers remain bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

After several weeks of watching a sharp rise in stock markets during April and May, investor optimism would be expected to move higher. In this case Investment Managers were optimistic, but AAII investors were not. The Fear & Greed indicator did not move above the Greed range. It appears retail investors are in a holding pattern waiting for a resolution to the middle east conflict, higher gas prices, inflation, layoffs, and more. The following charts show a snapshot of investor sentiment.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

AAII Sentiment Survey – https://www.aaii.com/sentiment-survey

CNN Fear & Greed Index – https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

NAAIM Exposure Index – https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

Once a week a sentiment survey is conducted by AAII Investors. They provide their opinion on the direction of markets over the next six months. When there is a large divergence between Bulls and Bears a turning point is near. This, along with other technical indicators, can be helpful.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Reference: American Association of Individual Investors Survey

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of May 6, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 96.67.  NAAIM data indicates investment managers are leveraged long and still extremely bullish. The current 2026 NAAIM index pattern is similar to late 2024 and near the reading of 98.93 on November 27, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

 

 

As of April 22, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 94.15. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are extremely bullish. Previous bullish positions with similar characteristics are shown below.
Dates with comparative NAAIM readings:
January 17, 2018 – 94.09 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 8, 2020 – 94.16 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 6, 2021 – 94.51 – markets continued to move higher

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer