Category: Dow

On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.

Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.

Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On February 9, 2026 it was observed that during September 2025 Microsoft had multiple $2.0B big blocks crossing the tape. This inventory  was distributed to large institutions. At this point it appears big blocks are moving out of Apple and into Microsoft. If this continues Microsoft could continue to stay above its lower trend line and provide a repeat performance of the last half of 1999.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.

Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On January 22, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 2 day moving average provided an early warning for a potential market decline. A similar event occurred on January 6, 2025. A second signal occurred on January 21, 2025. This was followed by an S&P500 decline that ended during the week of April 7, 2025. During this decline, Market Maker’s moved in to accumulate inventory for another move to higher levels. This was during the April 2025 lows when extremely large seven figure block trades crossed the tape in big tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, MSFT, and NVDA. Recently, between October 2025 and January 2026, similar large trades occurred as Market Maker’s distributed their inventory to bullish investment managers, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

 

As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.

Key data points include the following.

December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38

February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer