Intermarket structural analysis research
On August 7, 2026 it was noted that the CNN Fear & Greed Index was expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s over the next couple of months. It hit a high of 66 on August 13, 2026 and moved down to 33 on September 2, 2026. At this point the index is repeating a pattern from early 2023. If the index drops below 20, it would be a tuning point for markets to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 23, 2026 it was noted that the NAAIM Exposure Index continued to follow the summer 2021 pattern. The Exposure Index data has since been placed behind a paywall, and evaluating investment managers expectations is not possible. In addition to the NAAIM Index, the New Highs – New Lows index indicates a very short term move to its upper trend line is possible before moving lower. This move is expected to happen in a matter of days. The S&P500 is also following a 8.99 degree upper trend line, just like it did in 2021. It appears time is short before markets start moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Salesforce is currently a component of the Dow 30 and a good example of how Market Makers accumulate stock prior to moving prices higher. During the first half of 2026 this stock was quietly accumulated in preparation for a 22% gain on August 27, 2026. This was based on a beat on their second quarter earnings forecast and expanded partnership with Anthropic. Market Makers were well aware of this and positioned to take advantage of it.
Accumulation of stock by insiders has a long history. DuPont was a component of the Dow 30 in 1974 when Specialists accumulated a significant amount of their stock. This was prior to issuing the February 1975 Economic Report of the President developed by the Council of Economic Advisors. The economy was in a recession with high unemployment, high inflation and numerous economic issues. Specialists knew the $23 billion Tax Reduction act of 1975 would be signed by March 29, 1975. They were well positioned to take advantage of this.
Richard Ney provided a DuPont chart showing this example on page 270 of his 1975 book, Making It In the Market.
References:
1. Historical components of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages
2. Making It In The Market, Richard Ney, 1975, page 270
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Oracle moved up 36% on September 10, 2025 based on cloud computing demand. Since that time, the stock has dropped back to the $140 range. As the stock declined in late 2025, volume has taken on the characteristics of what has typically been seen as extremely large Market Maker accumulation activities. In addition to this there are signs of accumulation in other products such as CRM, CPB, and IGV. This would indicate exchange insiders are expecting markets to move higher. A pullback in the markets between now and the end of the year is still expected. This will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to buy additional inventory before moving prices higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Previous Specialists and current Market Makers are well versed on how to move Microsoft to optimize profits for their personal and corporate accounts. Microsoft and other tech companies, such as NVIDIA and Micron continue to provide the same play book through each cycle. This includes 2000, 2008 and 2026. This is why you see similar chart structures in each case. Microsoft is currently in the phase where Market Makers distribute as much stock as possible to hedge funds, pension funds, etc. before moving prices lower in 2026 and/or 2027. There will be an endless number of excuses as tech stocks start to move lower. It has been observed that extremely large blocks are making their way into other Dow stocks. This would provide a mechanism to move prices higher in other sectors while tech stocks decline. The same trick they used in 2000.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Over the past year, new short term lows have appeared as markets slowly work their way higher. At the moment markets are now within range of another short term low. As noted previously, markets are still expected to move lower going into the mid-term elections, but for now it appears a short move upward is being planned.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On July 22, 2026 an update on Micron Technology noted it appeared corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much since the year 2000. Micron is currently in a position that is similar to where it was in mid-August 2000. If this trend continues, September could be a difficult month for technology stocks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On August 14, 2026 Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest on X.com provided an interesting intermarket correlation between the NASDAQ and Swiss Franc. Since a pullback in the market was already expected, the following charts provide another perspective for the coming months.
Source: https://x.com/i3_invest/status/2088249286668472387
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On July 18, 2025 a comparison of 2001, 2007, and 2025 NVIDIA five point charts was reviewed. NVIDIA completed a 5 point chart in 2002 and 2007 with a process that took approximately 1 ½ years to move from point 1 to point 5. During each process a stock split occurred during the 2nd year. The 2026 5 point chart has developed over a 3 year period with a stock split in the 2nd year. Since March 2026, very large 7 figure block trades have been crossing the tape at the close. This pattern is similar to what occurred in October and November 2024. During that time smaller 7 figure block trades crossed the tape at the close before a decline started in November 2024. This was after NVIDIA replaced Intel in the Dow Index. The current April to August 2026 structure appears to be similar to what occurred between July and December 2007.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.
Based on previous readings in 2024 this is expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s for the next couple of months. A pull back with a CNN 5-Day average put/call ratio reading greater than or equal to 0.90 would be bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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If you are recording daily CNN Fear & Greed data you will see patterns and readings between November 29, 2024 (66) and February 20, 2025 (44) that are similar to what was recorded between May 7, 2026 (68) and July 31, 2026 (42). The Fear & Greed data runs in a cyclical pattern and is in the process of repeating a 2025 decline setup. The 2025 decline led to a CNN 5-day average put/call ratio of 1.0 on April 9, 2025, before moving lower. A market decline is still expected, but the duration will depend on options positioning. Upon completion of this decline, markets should continue to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
After the crisis in 2008 subsided, market makers started accumulating Cisco as inventory between 2011 and 2014. The price rose slowly for several years until 2024 when it started going parabolic and hitting a high of 129 on June 4, 2026. Since the peak occurred, extremely large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape (at the close) between mid-June and mid-July. This type of activity is typically from market maker’s distributing their inventory. The end result is expected to be a situation similar to what occurred between 2000 and 2001.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 16, 2026 it was noted that a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. The Exposure Index continues to follow the summer 2021 pattern and investment managers remain bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On June 6, 2026 it was noted that the weekly Semiconductor index (SOX) would briefly decline before markets started moving higher. The SOX index did move lower between mid-June and mid-July. Since Micron is a component of this index, it provides some insight on what to expect. Back in 1999- 2000 everyone was afraid of the Y2K apocalypse and extremely bullish on the stock market. Money was pouring into tech stocks. Today trillions are planned for AI.
After the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000, Micron did not hit its peak until July 2000. Not much has changed. The 2026 chart below is showing similar structural patterns to that of 2000. It appears corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much and are repeating the year 2000. After the current expected pullback another brief push upward would be in order. A diverse change in direction for many stocks should be expected in 2026 and 2027. Some will continue to move higher while others drop quickly.
Booming stock market led by tech has some saying it feels like the 1999 internet bubble – October 13, 2025
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
During July 2026 Caterpillar moved from its July 1, 2026 high to a July 17, 2026 low for a 21.9% decline.
This is similar to the following.
a) May 10, 2006 high to a January 22, 2007 low for a 28.3% decline.
b) July 31, 1997 high to a November 14, 1997 low for a 26.43% decline.
Based on the previous moves in 1997 and 2006 Caterpillar is expected to move sideways in 2026 and 2027. This is also a very early warning signal for the markets. A brief pullback in the indices is still expected this year to be followed by a move higher in 2027. The Dow and S&P500 could hit their peak in 2027 with the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2028 before starting a significant decline.
.Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 9, 2026 it was noted that a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July. In addition to this the Exposure index is in the process of developing a pattern that is similar to what occurred between June 16, 2021 (98.52) and September 22, 2021 (77.70). Based on this pattern a pullback going into the mid-term election would be appropriate. Investment managers are still bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Trading patterns within the Dow stocks are replicating what occurred in January 2026. Trades at the close are crossing the tape with over 8 and 9 million shares again. This by itself would not be a problem except the Dow is in a rising wedge format that is similar to the 2025 – 2026 structure. Other stocks that are seeing very large blocks are Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Microsoft trades are starting to move into the $3 billion range at the close. If we see another 1,000+ point day, it could be a problem, depending on what Market Makers have in mind.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On Friday morning, June 10, 2026, the news wire was hit with “President Trump agrees to continue talks with Iran, but says ceasefire is over”. Shortly after 10:30 a. m. ET algorithms picked on this news and immediately started repricing stocks relative to risk. Four and five figure trades in Dow stocks were running through the system hitting tight stop-loss orders along the way. This provided additional inventory for Market Makers and Liquidity Providers. After this repricing event they used this inventory to distribute stock while moving prices higher until the end of the day. The public looked at a market close that did not warrant their attention and moved on. The Dow closed up 149 points (+0.29%).
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of July 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 82.95. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on July 5, 2023. Investment managers are still bullish.
July 8, 2026
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 58.71
NAAIM Number: 82.95
July 5, 2023
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 50.49
NAAIM Number: 83.11
S&P500 peak: July 27, 2023
Dow peak: July 27, 2023
NASDAQ 100 peak: July 19, 2023
Based on NAAIM readings, 5-Day Moving Average put/call option positions, etc., a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The Dow and other indices work within a programmed range using a margin of error over the long term. When a shift occurs, as it did during the first four months of 2025, parameters reset and the system continues. This type of behavior was addressed by Richard Ney in the 1970s. Is it that simple. No. Today, everything is handled by high speed computers. There are also many factors that interact with these boundaries. Investor sentiment, liquidity providers order flow interaction with trader stop loss orders, news events causing a sharp change in direction are just a few. The Dow may bump against the current upper trend line and then move back down to the next channel as it moves higher. Still monitoring sentiment, options positions and very large block trades to see where the next turning point will be.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The Dow Jones Index continues to move upward on a path within a rising wedge, just as it did between late 2025 and early 2026. In addition to this, Alphabet replaced Verizon in the Dow Jones Index on June 29, 2026. Alphabet joins a group of Dow stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft, and NVIDIA that move very large seven figure trades on a regular basis. The inclusion of Alphabet sounds like November 8, 2024 when NVIDIA replaced Intel and Sherman-Williams replaced Dow, Inc. That change was followed by a decline that started in February 2025. Based on the current chart structure, a change in a Dow component, and large distributions, it appears a decline is being planned for the near future.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On June 24, 2026 it was noted that the 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio was expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback. At this point the ratio is 0.994 as the S&P500 and SPY continue to decline. Market Makers did not disappoint on Friday with significant volume and the reallocation of capital. Volume was well above average for stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft. A pullback in the markets is still expected as volatility increases.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of June 24, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.59. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish, as they were on August 20, 2025.
With the end of the second quarter it was observed in Dow stock trading that investment managers, hedge funds, etc., were reducing their risk by moving into stocks with lower volatility. Very large seven figure block trades crossed the tape on June 18, 2026 (Options Expiration) as well as June 22 and June 24.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Between April and June 2026, Market Makers were in the process of positioning for another pullback in the markets as the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. The 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio is currently expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback.
During the end of options expiration week on June 18, 2026, the S&P500 rose 1.08% and the Semiconductor ETF, SOXX moved up 6.62%. The financial media provided investors with a positive outlook prior to a long weekend in order to keep them in the market.
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2% as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off
The type of activity mentioned above also occurred between December 2017 and January 2018. During that time the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. A decline in the S&P500 followed in January 2018 and ended in late March 2018, as shown in the following chart.
During the options expiration week on January 17, 2018 the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time with a 1.08% move. The S&P500 moved up 0.77%. The media convinced investors that the bull market was still intact prior to a sharp decline starting on January 30, 2018.
Dow spikes 322 points, closes above 26,000 for the first time
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
