Category: Dow

On October 1, 2026 the Swiss Franc hit a low of 1.1928 and on October 6, 2026 the NASDAQ100 hit a record high of 31,361.37. Since that time the NASDAQ has started a decline while the Swiss Franc moved higher. If this is a repeat of the first quarter of 2025, the NASDAQ should move lower going into the end of the year.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On October 16, 2026 the CNN Fear and Greed index dropped below 20 with a reading of 18 at the market close. The following charts provide some perspective on the meaning of this reading. Readings below 20 should also align with a follow up of a CNN 5-day average put/call ratio of 0.90 (or greater) before markets are expected to move higher. The reading of 20 on November 7, 2025 is a good example. The highest follow up reading in the put/call ratio was only 0.82 on November 21, 2025. That meant markets were not expected to continue with a meaningful move to higher levels. This was also followed up by a decline in early 2026. So, monitoring the CNN put/call ratio for a reading of 0.90 or higher at the close will start on Monday, October 19, 2026.

Reference:  CNN Fear & Greed Index

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On September 17, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was reviewed. At that time the Swiss France/USD was 1.211. Today it hit 1.198. This declining trend indicates the NASDAQ is still expected to move lower. From the time the Swiss Franc starts to turn and move higher until the NASDAQ reaches a low is estimated to be approximately 3 months based on previous data.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

In August 2025 the Utilities Index initiated a head and shoulders pattern that has matured and this index is in the process of declining.  In 2007 a similar pattern formed and resulted in a sharp drop going into October 2008. In addition to this the Transportation Index is repeating a pattern from 2021 to 2022. The Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ have not initiated a decline that is similar to the Utilities or Transportation Index yet.  Indicators, such as the Move Index, rising interest rates, Swiss Franc vs NASDAQ index, etc., show the stock markets should be in a decline. When a decline does occur, it could be swift, targeting a large number of stop loss orders.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

The ICE BofA high yield option adjusted spread index has been moving in a pattern similar to that of late 2024 and early 2025. When the index dropped below 2.65 a decline in the stock markets followed. This was also the case in 2007. The latest readings starting on January 22, 2026 indicates a stock market pullback is expected this year.

January 24, 2007 = 2.63
April 26, 2007 = 2.63

November 8, 2024 = 2.63
January 17, 2025 = 2.64

January 22, 2026 = 2.64
June 17, 2026 = 2.63
August 27, 2026 = 2.63

References:
1. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread

2. Option-adjusted spread

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On September 13, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was shown in the first chart. In this case, as the Swiss Franc moves lower, the NASDAQ is expected to follow with a decline going into December. As this decline continues, the CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio 5 day moving average should be monitored. A move above 1.0 indicates the NASDAQ is within range of its low before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Since the invasion of Iran on February 27, 2026, oil (WTIC) went into a parabolic move hitting $119 on March 9, 2026. The price has dropped back to $100, but this will still have an impact on stock markets. Retail products such as gasoline and heating oil are also in a position to affect the public. Stock markets are still expected to pull back, and this will be a contributing factor.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On August 15, 2026 an interesting correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Swiss Franc was shown on the chart provided by @i3_invest on X.com. A closer look shows a low could appear near the mid-term elections. Time will tell.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Between 2004 and 2006 the NYSE Common Stock Only Advance-Decline Line developed a rising wedge using a 36.34 degree lower trend line.
Between 2024 and 2026 the same pattern has appeared using the same angle in the lower trend line. There is a high probability it will drop below this trend line before the end of 2026. If Market Makers, etc. repeat 2006, the move down should be relatively brief before a final move upward. Sentiment indicators would be expected to provide some input for a change in direction.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Since early 2023 there has been a steady increase in the number of big block trades at the close in the 9 million share range for stocks such as NVDA and INTC. Recently, they are using two large trades at the close that appear to keep a single trade from going over 10 million shares. This could revolve around any number of reasons, but it comes at a time when a pullback in the market is expected. Will continue to monitor this.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On August 7, 2026 it was noted that the CNN Fear & Greed Index was expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s over the next couple of months. It hit a high of 66 on August 13, 2026 and moved down to 33 on September 2, 2026. At this point the index is repeating a pattern from early 2023. If the index drops below 20, it would be a tuning point for markets to move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

On July 23, 2026 it was noted that the NAAIM Exposure Index continued to follow the summer 2021 pattern. The Exposure Index data has since been placed behind a paywall, and evaluating investment managers expectations is not possible. In addition to the NAAIM Index, the New Highs – New Lows index indicates a very short term move to its upper trend line is possible before moving lower. This move is expected to happen in a matter of days. The S&P500 is also following a 8.99 degree upper trend line, just like it did in 2021. It appears time is short before markets start moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Oracle moved up 36% on September 10, 2025 based on cloud computing demand. Since that time, the stock has dropped back to the $140 range. As the stock declined in late 2025, volume has taken on the characteristics of what has typically been seen as extremely large Market Maker accumulation activities. In addition to this there are signs of accumulation in other products such as CRM, CPB, and IGV. This would indicate exchange insiders are expecting markets to move higher. A pullback in the markets between now and the end of the year is still expected. This will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to buy additional inventory before moving prices higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Previous Specialists and current Market Makers are well versed on how to move Microsoft to optimize profits for their personal and corporate accounts. Microsoft and other tech companies, such as NVIDIA and Micron continue to provide the same play book through each cycle. This includes 2000, 2008 and 2026. This is why you see similar chart structures in each case. Microsoft is currently in the phase where Market Makers distribute as much stock as possible to hedge funds, pension funds, etc. before moving prices lower in 2026 and/or 2027. There will be an endless number of excuses as tech stocks start to move lower. It has been observed that extremely large blocks are making their way into other Dow stocks. This would provide a mechanism to move prices higher in other sectors while tech stocks decline. The same trick they used in 2000.

Micron Twelve Point charts

NVIDIA Peak 2026

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

Over the past year, new short term lows have appeared as markets slowly work their way higher. At the moment markets are now within range of another short term low. As noted previously, markets are still expected to move lower going into the mid-term elections, but for now it appears a short move upward is being planned.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Disclaimer

On July 22, 2026 an update on Micron Technology noted it appeared corporate strategic plans, Market Maker activity, and algorithms have not changed much since the year 2000. Micron is currently in a position that is similar to where it was in mid-August 2000. If this trend continues, September could be a difficult month for technology stocks.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On August 14, 2026 Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest on X.com provided an interesting intermarket correlation between the NASDAQ and Swiss Franc. Since a pullback in the market was already expected, the following charts provide another perspective for the coming months.

Source: https://x.com/i3_invest/status/2088249286668472387

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On July 18, 2025 a comparison of 2001, 2007, and 2025 NVIDIA five point charts was reviewed. NVIDIA completed a 5 point chart in 2002 and 2007 with a process that took approximately 1 ½ years to move from point 1 to point 5. During each process a stock split occurred during the 2^nd year. The 2026 5 point chart has developed over a 3 year period with a stock split in the 2^nd year. Since March 2026, very large 7 figure block trades have been crossing the tape at the close. This pattern is similar to what occurred in October and November 2024. During that time smaller 7 figure block trades crossed the tape at the close before a decline started in November 2024. This was after NVIDIA replaced Intel in the Dow Index. The current April to August 2026 structure appears to be similar to what occurred between July and December 2007.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Based on previous readings in 2024 this is expected to cycle between the 30s and 60s for the next couple of months. A pull back with a CNN 5-Day average put/call ratio reading greater than or equal to 0.90 would be bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed

Disclaimer

If you are recording daily CNN Fear & Greed data you will see patterns and readings between November 29, 2024 (66) and February 20, 2025 (44) that are similar to what was recorded between May 7, 2026 (68) and July 31, 2026 (42). The Fear & Greed data runs in a cyclical pattern and is in the process of repeating a 2025 decline setup. The 2025 decline led to a CNN 5-day average put/call ratio of 1.0 on April 9, 2025, before moving lower. A market decline is still expected, but the duration will depend on options positioning. Upon completion of this decline, markets should continue to move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed

Disclaimer