Intermarket structural analysis research
The declining S&P500 and Dow 1-hour futures charts are in the process of developing chart structures that are similar to 1-hour futures charts developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Based on this development, the S&P500 futures chart is expected to move down to 3887 by May 15, 2023 and the Dow futures chart is expected to move down to 31,465 by May 15, 2023.
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The Dow daily chart (and 1-hr futures chart) structure between March 1, 2022 and April 20, 2022 is similar to the S&P500 chart structure developed between March 6, 2023 and May 1, 2023. Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations and technical indicators show that upon completion a Dow structure this week that is similar to what was developed between March 1, 2022 and April 21, 2022, a sharp decline is expected with the Dow and S&P500 moving below 31,874 and 3,855 respectively.
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Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and 85% of technical indicators indicate the chart structure between April 14, 2023 and April 27, 2023 is similar to the chart structure between November 8, 2021 and November 16, 2021 with a 73.6% retracement. A decline is expected to continue.
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The 1974 Dow Model Page has been updated with the following charts. A comparison of the 1973 and 2022 – 2023 charts illustrates how Market Makers are currently using algorithms designed to repeat a decline similar to 1973. This decline will continue and ultimately lead to a repeat of a 1974 style decline in 2024.
On April 18, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculations (from April 17, 2023) indicated a change in direction was imminent. A second daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures change in direction signal occurred on April 18, 2023. The last time two signals occurred in two days was on October 10 – 11, 2022. This was followed by a 34 trading day rise. The two signals from April 17 – 18, 2023 indicate a sharp decline is expected.
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In the March 27 – April 13 Dow Summary post it was noted that the 1-hour chart was expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower. On April 18, 2023 at 06:45 a.m. the Dow futures chart hit a high of 34,279, well within the 1% range and just 108 points from the target of 34,387. It is still possible for the Dow to briefly move up and touch 34,279 this week before declining.
Daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculation results indicate a change in direction is imminent. This signal is similar to the change in direction calculation results from February 1, 2023. Technical analysts should note that the following indicators for the Dow are peaking: CCI, Stochastic %D, Williams %R, MFI, and RSI.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On March 27, 2023, it was noted that algorithms had been developing a 1-hour chart structure that was similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
On March 29, 2023 it appeared the Dow was on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Based on its rate of speed, it was expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) (33,280 – 33,952} by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. The Dow futures price crossed the 33,616 mark on April 3, 2023, one week earlier than expected, and continued to move sideways within its 1% range.
On March 31, 2023 it was observed that the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. was similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow was expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) (33,963 – 34,649) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day). On April 12, 2023 the Dow futures moved into the lower 1% range of 34,306.
This summary concludes that the 1-hour chart is expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower.
On February 25, 2023 Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 illustrated the expectation that this year would be similar to April through December 1974. Updated estimates indicate the end result would be near 18,000 for the Dow and 2400 for the S&P500. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1974 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023.
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In addition to S&P500 positioning for distributions, daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between March 6, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 19, 2021 through November 11, 2021, as well as December 8, 2021 through January 6, 2021. This positioning indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow briefly moved outside of its Symmetrical Collapse Structure between April 3, 2023 and April 4, 2023, as shown below. On April 4, 2023 Dow futures moved within 86 points of the lower range of the target noted on March 31, 2023. The Dow is expected to continue moving lower within this structure during 2023. On February 25, 2023 it was noted that the end result will be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow.
The rate of change has accelerated. As of 4:00 p.m. ET, the Dow futures price is within 1.1% of its target noted on March 31, 2023.
As noted on March 29, 2023, Dow algorithms initiated a chart structure on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET to recreate a Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Since that time, machine driven algorithms include calculations for the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. This is similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow is expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Starting on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET Dow futures have been on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. The Dow is currently in a similar position to where it was on May 25, 2022. Based on the current rate of speed, it is expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. This move would keep the Dow on the edge of the 2020 – 2023 Dow Symmetrical Collapse model boundary. Data will continue to be monitored for any changes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since March 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET it appears that machine driven algorithms have been developing a 1-hour chart structure that is similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Although the current 1-hour chart trajectory is similar to October 2022, volatility in March 2023 is significantly higher. In the past It has also been observed that machine driven algorithms start developing a chart structure from a previous period, but may shift to using a chart structure from a different time period as prices move higher. Speed of travel and volatility will be monitored for updates if needed.
It should be noted that the collapse in 2023 is expected to be significantly worse than 2008. Bear Stearns failed in March of 2008, Indy Mac failed in July 2008 with the majority of institutions failing in September 2008. In March 2023 alone, several institutions have already failed, received a bailout, or are in the process of merging. This is an ominous sign of things to come. Few remember that during the last half of 2008 when the financial system was collapsing, institutions and traders were selling precious metals to cover their losses. The charts below show a comparison between 2008 and 2023 for the Dow and Silver.
2008
Bear Stearns – March 16, 2008
Indy Mac, F.S.B, Pasadena, CA – July 11, 2008
Fanny Mae – September 6, 2008
Freddy Mac – September 6, 2008
Merrill Lynch & Co. – September 14, 2008
Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008
AIG – September 16, 2008
WaMu – September 25, 2008
2023
Silvergate Capital – March 8, 2023 – shut down
Silicon Valley Bank – March 10, 2023 – bankrupt
Signature Bank – March 10, 2023 – failed
First Republic – March 17, 2023 – bailout rescue package
Credit Suisse – March 19, 2023 – Merger with UBS
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023. Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.
Based on the falling wedge pattern noted on March 18, 2023 and an update of preliminary futures structural data, a 28 trading day (+/- 1 trading day) rally to April 27, 2023 appears to have started today (March 20, 2023). This is similar to the move up between October 13, 2022 and November 23, 2022. Following this rally another decline is expected to continue into the end of 2023.
The current falling wedge shown in the first chart is a repeat of September 2022. Completion of this wedge is expected to fill a gap located between 31,517 and 31,523 that was created in the Dow futures chart on October 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m. EST. A move upward will start when this is complete.
Watch the 5-minute futures chart. It appears an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading chart was initiated on March 17, 2023 at 4:25 a.m. EST. It is currently on point 6. This move down could fill the 5-min chart gap developed above 31,517 on 10/25/22 at 9:45 a.m. before moving higher.
A gap was created in the Dow 5-minute futures chart on March 15, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. EST. A brief drop below 31,691 to fill this gap should be anticipated before moving higher. Volatility will continue.
Preliminary structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up until April 13, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). This is the time frame when Federal Reserve Meeting minutes from March 21-22, 2023 would be scheduled for release on April 12, 2023. Additional data will be required to determine a price target range.
Technical analysts should note that October 3, 2022 – October 4, 2022 and March 16, 2023 contain similar values for the following lower tier technical indicators. Default settings are included.
Commodity channel Index CCI (periods =14)
Stochastic %D (periods=15,%K avg=3,%D=3)
Volume Oscillator OSCV (fast avg=9, slow avg=18)
Relative Momentum Index RMI (periods=20,momentum=5)
Relative Strength Index RSI (periods=15)
On March 13, 2023 a 3 point gap was created in the Dow futures index at 8:55 a.m. EST as the Dow started to move higher. On March 15, 2023 that gap was filled when the Dow dropped to 31,774 at 6:50 a.m. EST.
A gap created at the NYSE market open on March 14, 2023 was filled by 3:12 p.m. EST when the Dow fell to 31,828. This was followed by a rally back up to a close of 32,155.40. Based on Engrbytrade daily calculations and sentiment readings for the last two trading days, a potential exists for another rally similar to what occurred between September 30, 2021 and November 8, 2021.
