Intermarket structural analysis research
The Dow briefly moved outside of its Symmetrical Collapse Structure between April 3, 2023 and April 4, 2023, as shown below. On April 4, 2023 Dow futures moved within 86 points of the lower range of the target noted on March 31, 2023. The Dow is expected to continue moving lower within this structure during 2023. On February 25, 2023 it was noted that the end result will be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow.
The rate of change has accelerated. As of 4:00 p.m. ET, the Dow futures price is within 1.1% of its target noted on March 31, 2023.
As noted on March 29, 2023, Dow algorithms initiated a chart structure on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET to recreate a Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Since that time, machine driven algorithms include calculations for the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. This is similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow is expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Starting on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET Dow futures have been on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. The Dow is currently in a similar position to where it was on May 25, 2022. Based on the current rate of speed, it is expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. This move would keep the Dow on the edge of the 2020 – 2023 Dow Symmetrical Collapse model boundary. Data will continue to be monitored for any changes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since March 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET it appears that machine driven algorithms have been developing a 1-hour chart structure that is similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Although the current 1-hour chart trajectory is similar to October 2022, volatility in March 2023 is significantly higher. In the past It has also been observed that machine driven algorithms start developing a chart structure from a previous period, but may shift to using a chart structure from a different time period as prices move higher. Speed of travel and volatility will be monitored for updates if needed.
It should be noted that the collapse in 2023 is expected to be significantly worse than 2008. Bear Stearns failed in March of 2008, Indy Mac failed in July 2008 with the majority of institutions failing in September 2008. In March 2023 alone, several institutions have already failed, received a bailout, or are in the process of merging. This is an ominous sign of things to come. Few remember that during the last half of 2008 when the financial system was collapsing, institutions and traders were selling precious metals to cover their losses. The charts below show a comparison between 2008 and 2023 for the Dow and Silver.
2008
Bear Stearns – March 16, 2008
Indy Mac, F.S.B, Pasadena, CA – July 11, 2008
Fanny Mae – September 6, 2008
Freddy Mac – September 6, 2008
Merrill Lynch & Co. – September 14, 2008
Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008
AIG – September 16, 2008
WaMu – September 25, 2008
2023
Silvergate Capital – March 8, 2023 – shut down
Silicon Valley Bank – March 10, 2023 – bankrupt
Signature Bank – March 10, 2023 – failed
First Republic – March 17, 2023 – bailout rescue package
Credit Suisse – March 19, 2023 – Merger with UBS
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023. Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.
Based on the falling wedge pattern noted on March 18, 2023 and an update of preliminary futures structural data, a 28 trading day (+/- 1 trading day) rally to April 27, 2023 appears to have started today (March 20, 2023). This is similar to the move up between October 13, 2022 and November 23, 2022. Following this rally another decline is expected to continue into the end of 2023.
The current falling wedge shown in the first chart is a repeat of September 2022. Completion of this wedge is expected to fill a gap located between 31,517 and 31,523 that was created in the Dow futures chart on October 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m. EST. A move upward will start when this is complete.
Watch the 5-minute futures chart. It appears an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading chart was initiated on March 17, 2023 at 4:25 a.m. EST. It is currently on point 6. This move down could fill the 5-min chart gap developed above 31,517 on 10/25/22 at 9:45 a.m. before moving higher.
A gap was created in the Dow 5-minute futures chart on March 15, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. EST. A brief drop below 31,691 to fill this gap should be anticipated before moving higher. Volatility will continue.
Preliminary structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up until April 13, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). This is the time frame when Federal Reserve Meeting minutes from March 21-22, 2023 would be scheduled for release on April 12, 2023. Additional data will be required to determine a price target range.
Technical analysts should note that October 3, 2022 – October 4, 2022 and March 16, 2023 contain similar values for the following lower tier technical indicators. Default settings are included.
Commodity channel Index CCI (periods =14)
Stochastic %D (periods=15,%K avg=3,%D=3)
Volume Oscillator OSCV (fast avg=9, slow avg=18)
Relative Momentum Index RMI (periods=20,momentum=5)
Relative Strength Index RSI (periods=15)
On March 13, 2023 a 3 point gap was created in the Dow futures index at 8:55 a.m. EST as the Dow started to move higher. On March 15, 2023 that gap was filled when the Dow dropped to 31,774 at 6:50 a.m. EST.
A gap created at the NYSE market open on March 14, 2023 was filled by 3:12 p.m. EST when the Dow fell to 31,828. This was followed by a rally back up to a close of 32,155.40. Based on Engrbytrade daily calculations and sentiment readings for the last two trading days, a potential exists for another rally similar to what occurred between September 30, 2021 and November 8, 2021.
Starting at 11:41 a.m. today, the Dow and S&P500 1-minute chart followed the Engrbytrade eight point trading model shown below. This is typically followed by a rally.
Update. Rally to continue.
Put/Call Ratio = 0
Rally to Follow.
It appears an attempt may be made for a move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%). This was originally noted on March 8, 2023. A move up to 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is still expected, regardless of a drop to 31,071.
Dow futures hit a low of 31,787 on March 10, 2023. This was 1.3% above a projected high in a target range of 31,071 (+/- 1%) (31,381 – 30,760) on March 10, 2023. It is possible that the Dow may move slightly lower, but daily engrbytrade™ calculations show the Dow turning and moving above its high on December 13, 2022 (34712 on the NYSE). A target of 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is expected. This target is based on Dow calculation results between January and March 2023 being similar to what was produced between October and November of 2021, as discussed on March 7, 2023. A declining trend, similar to 2022, is expected for the first half of 2023. Ultimately, a market collapse planned for September 26, 2023 will take the Dow below 14,000, as shown on February 25, 2023.
Between March and August of 2023 various corporations, banks, and/or brokerages, etc. will fail, just as Enron, WorldCom, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers did during 2001, 2002, and 2008 prior to markets collapsing between September and October. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank are just the beginning.
As of March 10, 2023 at 11:00 AM ET the Fear and Greed Index was 25. Looking back, the index hit 25 on September 23, 2022 just five days prior to the Dow hitting a low on September 30, 2022. Markets started moving higher in October 2022.
The decline in 2022 is a reflection of what occurred during 1973. The chart below shows a trend line of 33.72 degrees below the x-axis and it appears this will be used during the first half of 2023, as it was in 1974. A move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%) is still expected to occur. Everything is planned.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The projected move to 31,071 is ahead of schedule and accelerating. A date of intersection with 31,071 is now expected occur on March 15, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). Fear is building at a rapid pace.
Engrbytrade Dow futures structural calculations indicate the decline is expected to continue. Using its current rate of acceleration a projected target of 31,071 (+/- 1%) is expected by March 21, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Between October 19, 2021 and November 22, 2021 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculation results were found to be similar to results produced between January 19, 2023 and March 6, 2023. This comparison indicates the Dow January 2023 to March 2023 structure is expected to be a prelude for a decline over the next several months. It would also align with the expectation of a decline discussed on February 25, 2023. Similarities were also found for the S&P500 between October 20, 2021 to November 19, 2021 and January 17, 2023 to February 28, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
