FOMC Press Conference Video Coverage
Jerome Powell
March 22, 2023
2:30 PM ET
Intermarket structural analysis research
FOMC Press Conference Video Coverage
Jerome Powell
March 22, 2023
2:30 PM ET
Timing is important.
JPMorgan scoops up troubled Bear
March 16, 2008
JP Morgan Chase to Buy Bear Stearns
March 19, 2023
UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Swiss central bank confirms
More Bank Failures Are Imminent as Liquidity Crisis Exposes Major Problems With the Banks
This clip has appeared on various platforms. It is my understanding that the video came from a meeting at the FDIC in November of 2022.
FDIC Bankers Discuss ‘Bail-Ins’
A Massive Bank Run Threatens to Crash a Major Bank as They Desperately Try to Avoid Insolvency
In the future energy related commodities will become very expensive.
Intensifying War, Enormous Upside for Gold – Charles Nenner
Inflation: The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind – Hidden Secrets of Money Ep 4
Three economic rescue packages were signed between 1970 and 1971. What followed was a run up in silver prices until the first quarter of 1974. Three economic rescue packages were signed between 2020 and 2022. Based on history, the result will be another run up in gold and silver prices.
Cause:
Economy/Gold/Silver: Impact of Congressional Spending
Effect:
Silver prices could touch a 9-year high in 2023 — with a bigger upside than gold
Gold price backs off on rising dollar, but set for fifth weekly rise
Stock market faces collision of bullish and bearish forces, says Tom McClellan
When taxes, as a percentage of GDP, are greater than 18% a recession follows.
The $2 trillion Cares Act was signed on March 27, 2020. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed on March 11, 2021. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was signed on August 16, 2022. Signing three economic rescue bills within three years to provide $4.7 trillion in funding is extreme.
The last time two economic rescue bills were passed was when the $152 billion Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was signed on February 13, 2008, followed by the $831 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that went into effect on February 17, 2009. On February 17, 2009 gold futures closed at $967.50 and moved up to a high in the futures market of $1923.70 on August 5, 2011. Silver futures closed at $14.03 on February 17, 2009 and moved up to a high in the futures market of $49.56 on April 28, 2011.
A similar series of events took place between 1975 and 1977. In 1975 the $23 billion Tax Reduction Act was signed on March 29, 1975. This was followed by the Economic Stimulus Appropriations Act of 1977 that was signed on May 13, 1977. Following the approval of these two bills, gold futures hit a closing high of $909.9 on January 22, 1980 and silver futures closed at $41.50 on January 21, 1980.
The source of funding many of these bills goes back to August 15, 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window and stopped the international convertibility of U.S. Dollars to gold. On August 15, 1970 the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 was passed to stabilize prices, rents, wages, salaries, interest rates, dividends, etc. as part of a price control program. On July 12, 1971 Nixon signed the $2.25 billion Emergency Employment Act of 1971. After closing the gold window on August 15, 1971, Nixon expanded the size of the next stimulus bill by signing the $15 billion Revenue Act of 1971 on December 10, 1971. Gold futures then went from $44 on December 10, 1971 to $179.80 on April 3, 1974. Silver futures went from $1.43 on December 10, 1971 to $6.29 on February 26, 1974.
The impact of approving very large rescue plans through consecutive stimulus bills has historically been followed by significantly higher gold and silver prices within 9 to 11 calendar quarters of the last bill being approved. In this case it would be the $739 billion Inflation Reduction Act signed on August 16, 2022. Based on this timeline the next peak in gold and silver is expected to occur between November 2024 and May 2025.
Citadel Securities Opens Up After Record $7 Billion Windfall
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/citadel-securities-opens-up-after-record-7-billion-windfall
Scott, from The Real Economy shows examples of retail business failures in Florida. This trend will continue all over the U.S.
A recession is on the way.
Since 1943, it appears the M2 money supply has been a leading indicator for inflation. When the M2 yearly growth rate moved above 13%, there was a three to four year delay before inflation moved up within 1.1% of, or above, the M2 growth rate.
M2 Monty Supply Growth vs. Inflation Chart
Source: Longtermtrends
M2 yearly growth rate | Subsequent Inflation rate | |
1 | December 31, 1943 – 17.46% | February 28, 1947 – 19.67% |
2 | June 30, 1971 – 13.44% | November 30, 1974 – 12.34% |
3 | January 31, 1976 -13.81% | February 28, 1980 – 14.76% |
4 | January 31, 2021 – 26.89% | 25+% as early as 2024? |
Key words from the media push pessimism in retail trading for Market Makers to acquire additional inventory.
A move up in the Dow is still expected.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole — 8/26/2022
Powell: “A sustained period of below trend growth is coming.”
Translation: Expect stock markets to move significantly lower over the next four months.