Economy: Depression Cycle Arrives in 2025 and 2026

Charles Nenner notes that a depression is expected to start by the end of 2025. A stock market decline should start by the end of 2025 and continue through 2026. Based on history, the last quarter of 2025 would be a logical starting point for this decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Gold is Coming to America

Greg Hunter:  “So, why are all these reports coming out in the last few months about gold coming to America from Europe?”
Armstrong says, “Last week, I was on the phone, and I can’t tell you how much, but when you are about to go into war, capital moves. Right now, I am concerned from about May 15th on. Our computer (Socrates) says Europe is going into war, and I put it into this report, Europe will lose. This is why the gold is coming to America.”

Full interview: EU Falling & Needs War with Russia – Martin Armstrong  

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Economy/Interest Rates: Trade Wars = Recession

U.S. and Canada Trade Wars = Recession | Steve Hanke and Jimmy Connor

Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University discusses the recent decision by the Fed to cut rates, for the third time, the impact of a Trade War between the U.S. and Canada.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Economy: Jim Rickards 2025 Recession

Jim Rickards: Weakness, Recession in 6-9 Months, But a Very Strong Economy in 2-4 Years

00:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Rickards
01:18 2024 election review
05:07 Economic implications of election results
07:24 Trade policies and auto industry tariffs
09:29 The “American System” explanation
16:32 Analysis of Trump victory/Harris loss
21:45 Inflation discussion and public impact
24:24 Economic outlook: recession in the near-term vs. long-term growth
29:00 Jerome Powell and Fed leadership discussion
31:32 Labor market analysis and job revisions
36:45 “MoneyGPT” book and AI in daily life
41:56 AI’s impact on market crashes
45:23 AI, nuclear warfare, and empathy limitations
47:36 Historical nuclear war prevention examples
49:32 AI limitations in crisis management
51:01 MoneyGPT book release details and closing

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Economy: August 2007 Press Conference

On August 9, 2007 George Bush gave a press conference on the economy. He provided the following key points that sound similar to recent economic related comments from the White House.

“Fundamentals of our economy are strong..”
“..job creation is strong..”
“..real after tax wages are on the rise..”
“..inflation is low..”
“..the global economy is strong..”
“..there is enough liquidity in the system..”

Clip from Bush’s Press Conference on 8-9-07

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Economy: Professor Steve Hanke

Professor Steve Hanke Discusses the Economy

Professor Steve Hanke discusses the most misunderstood economic events affecting global markets.

0:00 Introduction
0:35 Economic Events
6:07 Impact of Money Supply on Economy
10:08 Rising Rates and Their Impact
12:23 Gold Market Outlook
14:05 Two Big Wars and Their Economic Impact
18:48 Market Overvaluation
21:18 Investment Strategy Advice
23:12 Book Preview: Capital, Interest, and Waiting
27:27 The Concept of Waiting in Economics
39:45 Conclusion

M2 and Components

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Economy: Big Short 2.0

The following describes a prelude to The Big Short 2.0. Video quality is problematic, but the audio is good. Fraud and corruption are expected to appear this summer.

Are $Trillions Of New Loans About To Be Pumped Into The Housing Market? | Melody Wright

0:00 – Less Home Equity Than Estimated
4:33 – Role of The GSEs
9:23 – Government Holds 85% Of Mortgages Now
13:16 – Does The Market Need More Home Equity Loans?
19:35 – What Are The Biggest Risks Here?
24:12 – Is This A Bad Idea?
34:48 – Is This Setting Up The Big Short 2.0?
41:09 – Melody’s Latest Housing Market Update

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Economy: June 14, 2023 FOMC Press Conference

In this FOMC Press Conference Powell noted the following key points:

  • We have covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt.
  • Today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and continue to reduce our securities holdings.
  • Nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time.
  • Committee participants generally expect subdued growth to continue in our summary of economic projections. The projection has real GDP growth at 1.0% this year and 1.1% next year, well below the median estimate of the longer-run normal growth rate.
  • Inflation remains well above our longer-run 2% goal.
  • If the economy evolves as projected the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.6% at the end of this year.
  • Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.

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