Scott, from The Real Economy shows examples of retail business failures in Florida. This trend will continue all over the U.S.
Economy: Earnings Recession
Strategist Mike Wilson: Earnings Recession May Rival ’08
Economy: US Commercial & Industrial Loans
Economy: Recessionary Indicators
A recession is on the way.
Economy: Inflation vs M2
Since 1943, it appears the M2 money supply has been a leading indicator for inflation. When the M2 yearly growth rate moved above 13%, there was a three to four year delay before inflation moved up within 1.1% of, or above, the M2 growth rate.
M2 Monty Supply Growth vs. Inflation Chart
Source: Longtermtrends
| M2 yearly growth rate | Subsequent Inflation rate | |
| 1 | December 31, 1943 – 17.46% | February 28, 1947 – 19.67% |
| 2 | June 30, 1971 – 13.44% | November 30, 1974 – 12.34% |
| 3 | January 31, 1976 -13.81% | February 28, 1980 – 14.76% |
| 4 | January 31, 2021 – 26.89% | 25+% as early as 2024? |
Economy/Dow: Retail Trading
Key words from the media push pessimism in retail trading for Market Makers to acquire additional inventory.
A move up in the Dow is still expected.
September 15, 2008
September 2022 will be an interesting month.
Economy: Powell Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole — 8/26/2022
Powell: “A sustained period of below trend growth is coming.”
Translation: Expect stock markets to move significantly lower over the next four months.
Economy: Real Estate Bubble
- THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop – The Big Boys Leave, Waiting for Reset
August 7, 2022
Economy: Asset Deflation
Tim Wood interviews former BlackRock & hedge fund manager Edward Dowd. Beginning of the end for rate hikes.
Economy: BlackRock’s Robot
This supports the engrbytrade™ hypothesis that market movements are based on structures created prior to, and implemented during, the course of predetermined time frames.
Economy: Dotcom Bust 2
From those of us who experienced the Dotcom bust, Wolf Richter provides his perspective.
Wolf Street
June 5, 2022
Economy: Converging Forces
Ed Dowd Interview:
The Four Converging Forces That Will Destroy the Economy
Economy: Business Cycles
The Future According to the ECM
Economy: Recession Isn’t Imminent?
February 28, 2008
Does this sound familiar? You know the rest of the story.
Economy: Destruction of Wealth
Economy: Bretton Woods III
The Roundtable Insight – Zoltan Pozsar & Yra Harris on the Economy, Fin Markets & Bretton Woods III
Economy: Stocks and Commodities
Note that after reaching the time frame between April 15, 2022 and April 25, 2022, as noted in the Volatile Time Frame post, stocks and commodities are expected to collapse during the last half of 2022.
Economy: Collapse Is Inevitable
Covid Investigative Committee
Grand Jury Proceeding: Day 5
Economical & Financial Destruction
https://gettr.com/streaming/pvr11i8098
Destruction of the economy (Technocracy)
27:02 to 1:49:00
Patrick Wood
Economist & Author
Controlled Demolition of the Political and Economic System
1:49:00 to 2:59:34
Leslie Manookian
Former Investment Banker
Financial Destruction
3:05:59 to 3:54:55
Bjorn Pirwitz
Lawyer and Finance Expert from Germany
Financial Destruction (Part II)
3:55:00 to 4:40:00
Dr. Christian Kreiss
Professor of Economics & Former Investment Banker, Germany
Economy: Jeremy Grantham
Calling a Super Bubble: Front Row with Jeremy Grantham
Notes from this interview:
U.S. stocks are in a super-bubble like 1929.
The upcoming crash will rival the 1929 crash and dot.com bust of 2000-2001.
In the last year stocks in the Russell 2000 are down.
The current bubble is a very rare pattern.
The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are weak against blue chip stocks.
The trend line is (at most) 2500 for the S&P500.
Do not short individual stocks.
The global housing market is currently more overpriced than it was in the housing bubble of 2006-2008.
Inflation will be part of the discussion and move higher from now on.
We are in the early stages of running out of raw materials.
Selected commodity prices will move higher.
Live within your means.
Economy: Trade Deal Expiration
On January 15, 2020 China signed an Economic and Trade Agreement with the U.S. Within 30 days of signing this agreement, the Dow started a sharp decline on February 13, 2020. This was just one day before the trade agreement went into effect, as noted in the following article.
US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods in 2020 and 2021
This trade agreement expires on December 31, 2021. Watch for a stock market decline to start in January 2022.
Economy: Global Collapse Guaranteed
A global market collapse and depression are guaranteed using the following plan.
Economy: Labor Shortage
Small businesses frustrated by labor shortages afflicting the economy, NFIB finds
Small businesses cannot find enough skilled workers or supplies to keep up with demand.