Intermarket structural analysis research
As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 9, 2026 it was observed that during September 2025 Microsoft had multiple $2.0B big blocks crossing the tape. This inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point it appears big blocks are moving out of Apple and into Microsoft. If this continues Microsoft could continue to stay above its lower trend line and provide a repeat performance of the last half of 1999.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.
Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On January 22, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 2 day moving average provided an early warning for a potential market decline. A similar event occurred on January 6, 2025. A second signal occurred on January 21, 2025. This was followed by an S&P500 decline that ended during the week of April 7, 2025. During this decline, Market Maker’s moved in to accumulate inventory for another move to higher levels. This was during the April 2025 lows when extremely large seven figure block trades crossed the tape in big tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, MSFT, and NVDA. Recently, between October 2025 and January 2026, similar large trades occurred as Market Maker’s distributed their inventory to bullish investment managers, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Wall street media outlets never disappoint when it comes to putting a positive spin on just about every headline in the news cycle. What they do not discuss are indicators such as the following. The NASDAQ 100 Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average. Based on previous readings, when this percentage drops and stays below the 50% level, a market decline is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.
Key data points include the following.
December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38
February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 11, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was continuing to follow its 2011 pattern. Along with this, research indicates the NASDAQ is also following its 2011 pattern using a 2.77 degree declining support line. Whatever Market Makers are preparing, it appears they are using 2011 as their algorithmic model.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.
Key data points include the following.
December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89
February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.
December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59
November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 26, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 89.92. Investment Managers are still bullish with hedge positions similar to December 23, 2020. At that point the Exposure Index number was 89.11
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. During this process TLT followed its 2010 – 2011 chart structure. Another stock market structure appeared recently in the S&P500 during October and November 2025. This is similar to the February to June 2011 S&P500 chart peak structure. In 2011 the S&P500 structure formed prior to an announcement of a U.S Credit Downgrade on August 5, 2011. It resulted in a sharp decline in the stock markets as interest rates dropped quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On November 3, 2025 the New York Financial Index was showing a RSI divergence that appeared to be a repeat of 2021. Today the S&P500 is showing a RSI divergence that is similar to what occurred between late 2024 and early 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
For a second day in a row, the Fear & Greed Index closed below 20. It was observed that the index dropped to a trading range of 8 during the day. This has not happened since the decline going into April 3, 2025 when the index hit 9 at the close.
The 5-day average put/call ratio hit 0.73. This is the same as February 25, 2025. If the ratio moves above 0.78, a move to 0.90 would be expected. This will take some time for algorithms to move investors out of a large number of call positions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 14, 2025 it was noted that a reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. On November 7, 2025 the index hit a market close reading of 20. Today the index closed at 14. A confirmation of the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio above 0.90 will be needed.
Note:
On August 8, 2024 and April 4, 2025 the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio moved above 0.90 to confirm a turning point in the markets. Be aware that financial media outlets will step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.
Previous turning point confirmation dates.
September 28, 2022 = 17
September 29, 2022 = 14
March 13, 2023 = 20
March 15, 2023 = 19
October 3, 2023 = 17
October 4, 2023 = 19
August 5, 2024 = 16
August 7, 2024 = 20
February 24, 2025 = 20
February 27, 2025 = 18
November 7, 2025 = 20
November 17, 2025 = 14
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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