Intermarket structural analysis research
As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.
Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.
Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 9, 2026 it was observed that during September 2025 Microsoft had multiple $2.0B big blocks crossing the tape. This inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point it appears big blocks are moving out of Apple and into Microsoft. If this continues Microsoft could continue to stay above its lower trend line and provide a repeat performance of the last half of 1999.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.
Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On January 22, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 2 day moving average provided an early warning for a potential market decline. A similar event occurred on January 6, 2025. A second signal occurred on January 21, 2025. This was followed by an S&P500 decline that ended during the week of April 7, 2025. During this decline, Market Maker’s moved in to accumulate inventory for another move to higher levels. This was during the April 2025 lows when extremely large seven figure block trades crossed the tape in big tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, MSFT, and NVDA. Recently, between October 2025 and January 2026, similar large trades occurred as Market Maker’s distributed their inventory to bullish investment managers, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Wall street media outlets never disappoint when it comes to putting a positive spin on just about every headline in the news cycle. What they do not discuss are indicators such as the following. The NASDAQ 100 Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average. Based on previous readings, when this percentage drops and stays below the 50% level, a market decline is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.
Key data points include the following.
December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38
February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On December 11, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was continuing to follow its 2011 pattern. Along with this, research indicates the NASDAQ is also following its 2011 pattern using a 2.77 degree declining support line. Whatever Market Makers are preparing, it appears they are using 2011 as their algorithmic model.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.
Key data points include the following.
December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89
February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.
December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59
November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
