Intermarket structural analysis research
As of June 10, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 79.27. This position is similar to where it was on July 23, 2025 with a reading of 81.07. For the moment the index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
While markets move lower at an increasing rate, the CNN Fear & Greed Index will adjust accordingly. Two key readings have been under observation at market lows over the last few years that fall into the following parameters.
1. CNN Fear & Greed Index less than or equal to 20.
2. CNN Put and Call Options Index greater than or equal to 0.90.
Generally, when readings have met these parameters at the same time, markets are in, or are moving into, a range of another low as shown in the following chart.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It is apparent that Market Maker and Liquidity Provider algorithms are providing a road map for Apple based on its 2024 structure. A move below the lower trend line will indicate a steady short term decline is in progress. This will provide all the liquidity needed for exchange insiders when markets turn and move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The SOX Semiconductor Index finished the week with a 4.74% decline and a very long shooting star candle. Semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Micron, and NVIDIA also ended lower with similar candles for the week. Typically, a sharp decline would be expected to follow this type of candle. But, the Fear & Greed cycle has already moved into the Fear category, as it did in late 2022. It hit a low of 35 on December 30, 2022 before the S&P500 and NASDAQ started moving higher. At this point a brief decline would be expected before markets start moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of June 3, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.82. This position is similar to July 9, 2025. What followed in 2025 was the Dow moved sideways with a quick drop at the end of July, after the Fed Reserve Meeting on July 29-30, 2025. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. A quick decline after this meeting would not be a surprise. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
For those who are watching this, here is a quick note to illustrate that IGV has a trading pattern history similar to the following chart.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of May 27, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved to 98.39. Up until May 13, 2026 patterns in the index were similar to late 2024. Currently the index resembles 2025. The February – April 2025 broad based sell off, due to an increase in tariffs, pulled the index down to 35.16 before recovering in May and June. The latest decline, due to the Iran war, started in February 2026 and pulled the index down to 60.24. During this decline buyers were focused on technology stocks, as shown in the Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV). Heavy volume between February and April indicated insiders, market makers, etc. were buying whatever they could. This type of activity should push markets higher going into the summer months. Investment Managers remain bullish.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
After several weeks of watching a sharp rise in stock markets during April and May, investor optimism would be expected to move higher. In this case Investment Managers were optimistic, but AAII investors were not. The Fear & Greed indicator did not move above the Greed range. It appears retail investors are in a holding pattern waiting for a resolution to the middle east conflict, higher gas prices, inflation, layoffs, and more. The following charts show a snapshot of investor sentiment.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
AAII Sentiment Survey – https://www.aaii.com/sentiment-survey
CNN Fear & Greed Index – https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
NAAIM Exposure Index – https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
History provides some insight to Market Maker activities. One example is Cisco. Based on the 2000 Cisco chart structure there was a period between 1993 and 1998 when Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory. As this occurred there were 2 cycles between 1997 and 1998 before it started to move significantly higher.
It appears Market Makers are repeating their work from 2000. The 2026 Cisco chart reflects a similar structure where Market Makers accumulated inventory between 2010 and early 2016. There were also 2 cycles between 2019 and 2022 before it started to move significantly higher.
At this point it is unknown if Market Makers will continue to use the 2000 structure as a model. If they do it will be an impressive move.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
While the NASDAQ and S&P500 moved up rapidly over the last several weeks investors have not moved to an extreme bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Once a week a sentiment survey is conducted by AAII Investors. They provide their opinion on the direction of markets over the next six months. When there is a large divergence between Bulls and Bears a turning point is near. This, along with other technical indicators, can be helpful.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Reference: American Association of Individual Investors Survey
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of May 6, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 96.67. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are leveraged long and still extremely bullish. The current 2026 NAAIM index pattern is similar to late 2024 and near the reading of 98.93 on November 27, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of April 22, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 94.15. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are extremely bullish. Previous bullish positions with similar characteristics are shown below.
Dates with comparative NAAIM readings:
January 17, 2018 – 94.09 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 8, 2020 – 94.16 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 6, 2021 – 94.51 – markets continued to move higher
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.
Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.
Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
