Up until July 2025 Market Makers have been following Apple’s January 2006 to March 2008 chart structure. In addition to this an Engrbytrade™ eight point trading model structure has formed. It is similar to what occurred between May and August of 2008 and was discussed on May 8, 2025.
Technical indicators and big block activity still point to a decline. This includes readings from the NAAIM Index, CNN Fear and Greed Index and CNN Put to Call Options indicator.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On July 9, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 86.28. A review of recent large 7-figure block trading activity in Dow tech stocks is similar to what took place in July 2023. The CNN Fear & Greed Index, as well as the CNN Put to Call Options indicator are also aligning with trading activities that took place in July 2023. Investment Managers have conducted similar positioning activities as they did in June and July 2023. A decline similar to what occurred between August and October 2023 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On February 24, 2024, research found the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF (TLT) appeared to be under accumulation. Extremely large block trades have crossed the tape since October 2023. This level of trading indicates Market Makers are involved.
In addition to this it appears Intel has been under accumulation since August 2024. Market Makers took the opportunity to drop Intel 26% on August 2, 2024 due to a big miss on earnings. Following this decline, extremely large block trades started crossing the tape. This accumulation process is still underway.
In both cases similar accumulation events occurred in 2010 and 2011 before prices started moving higher.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which [Market Makers formerly known as] specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On June 25, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 81.41. This pattern appears to be a repeat performance of June 10, 2020. Movements of the index from May 7, 2025 to June 25, 2025 are similar to what occurred between April 29, 2020 and June 10, 2020. This indicates investment managers are using similar risk management techniques that were applied in 2020. If this is a repeat of 2020, there may be some near term volatility. Based on investment manager positions markets are expected to move higher going into the end of August 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The NAAIM Exposure Index reading has moved up to 94.09. This is similar to what occurred on April 17, 2019. On that date the index hit a reading of 93.37 after recovering from a sharp market decline in December 2018. This reading was followed by a 6.12% decline in the S&P500 during May 2019.
In addition to the current NAAIM reading it was noted on June 19, 2025 that the CNN Fear & Greed reading was in a position similar to where it was on December 15, 2022. The Fear & Greed reading in December 2022 was followed by a 5.87% decline in the S&P500.
Based on both readings, a brief decline of approximately 6% in the S&P500 would be expected before moving higher. Volatility should continue to increase over the next 2 to 3 months before breaking out and moving higher.
Note that NAAIM Index readings on April 17, 2019 and June 18, 2025 were recorded during options expiration week.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In November 2024 Intel was dropped from the Dow 30 and replaced with NVDA after its decline on very light volume between March 2021 and July 2024. There is a good reason for this. It took Intel out of the day to day spotlight of the news cycle. It also allows Market Makers to accumulate what they need to eventually move prices higher. Over the last several months INTC daily volume has continued to spike with a steady flow of extremely large blocks crossing the tape. A pattern similar to this occurred after 2009. It is unknown at this time what the incentive is for initiating this type of accumulation process, but it could continue over the next few years.
“It is only when they (Specialists currently known as Market Makers) are able to decline on light volume that they can afford to carry the decline to lower prices.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The following should provide some perspective on big block trading during the decline in 2025. A 27 day period was selected during the decline in March – April 2025 and September – October 2023. Apple block trades with over 5 million shares were used as a sample base. Results showed the total number of Apple shares traded in March – April 2025 was 49% larger than September – October 2023. Since Market Makers operate a merchandising system, they will have an incentive to distribute this, and other shares accumulated, at much higher prices in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.
A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.
Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.
Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.
Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.
On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started movinghigher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.
Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.
The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.
In addition to the above signals a silent collapse of Dow stocks is in progress.
Based on the above signals a significant event is coming in the weeks ahead and would be expected to shake the financial system. It may not have an immediate impact on stock markets, but the flight to safety will be obvious. Interest rates will decline. A short quick decline in the stock market could occur, but affected stocks will drop dramatically as the year progresses. This also means the U.S. Dollar will start a long term trend to move higher over the next several years. Gold will immediately hit a peak and then start a long term decline as the Dollar moves higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On July 23, 2024 British Pound Non-Commercial Futures Trader positions hit a record level. This British Pound connection has an intermarket relationship with U.S. stock markets. On July 17, 2007 British Pound Non-Commercial Trader positions peaked, as shown below. This was followed by a decline in the British Pound and U.S. stock markets in 2008. The British Pound just moved into a position that is similar to where it was in March 2008. Futures trader positions indicate a significant amount of capital is moving in preparation for a major stock market decline in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
A previous post on February 3, 2025 noted that a global financial crisis is on the way. A closer look at Dow stocks on an arithmetic scale shows that it can be interesting to watch companies such as Walmart going parabolic. Walmart may stall, as it did in 2000 and move sideways for several years. But after Walmart hit its peak in 2000, the “tech bubble” popped and brought about losses that are still discussed today. There are numerous headlines about reducing the debt, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos selling stock, jobs, inflation, etc., etc. What is important are the positions that Market Makers are taking to setup for a decline. Since they run a “merchandising operation”, sales to pension funds, hedge funds, and large institutions would be in order at this point. In January 2025 there was a significant increase in the number of extremely large blocks of stock crossing the tape. As this occurred, active investment managers increased their exposure between the end of January and beginning of February.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On December 19, 2024 it was noted that over the last several years Market Makers have been working on a parabolic structure for IBM. The following IBM charts include Engrbytrade™ markers within the structures. Connecting markers between 2010 and 2025 shows a projected low in the $60 to $70 range by mid- 2026. This aligns with the following S&P500 chart showing a projected low in 2026. A similar collapse occurred with Intel between April 2021 and February 2025. Markers still indicate Intel could drop below $10.
The following charts are also an indication that a global financial crisis is on the way. In 1987, Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued the “Stock Market Crash of 1987” essay. They included the following point. “….a new product from US investment firms, known as “portfolio insurance,” had become very popular. It included extensive use of options and derivatives and accelerated the crash’s pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling.”
Today the growth of derivatives continues toward estimated values as high as $2.3 quadrillion. New speculative products such as Zero-Day options, Bitcoin ETFs, etc. are just a repeat of what led up to the 1987 crash.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Based on extremely large block trades crossing the tape over the last four weeks, it appears capital has been moving out of stocks. This aligns with what occurred in August 2022 and August 2023 when active managers were reducing their risk exposure. In order for a sustainable rally to continue the index would first need to drop below the lower trend line with a reading of 60 or below. This would provide Market Makers with an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving prices higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Dow and S&P500 chart structures between October 7, 2024 and January 23, 2025 are similar to the Dow and S&P500 chart structures between July 29, 1929 and October 11, 1929. Current conditions noted on January 21, 2025 showed a repeat of the October and November 2023 chart structure with the potential of moving higher in 2025. This could change quickly depending on what the Fed does with interest rates on January 29, 2025. It is a wait and see situation with the Fed.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Apple has declined 11.2% since December 26, 2024. As Apple continues to decline, the press will provide various excuses to retail investors. The press will never mention anything about Market Makers selling (distributing) big blocks of stock to institutions. Reviewing the 2024 – 2025 chart below, a continuous move upward would have been expected using an ascending triangle. There was some 2024 year-end big block selling. But, since then extremely large (7 figure) block trading activity started to increase as the stock dropped below its ascending triangle.
The current Apple chart structure and ascending triangle is a repeat of 2012, as shown in the second chart. Since Apple is 14th in the Dow’s weight ranking list, a decline should not have a dramatic impact on the index. With a mid-ranking weight Dow stock, a slow but steady decline, and the media continuously saying markets will move higher, retail investors are expected to end up with a loss.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On December 28, 2024 it was noted that the last quarter of 2024 was expected to be a market peak period. This was based on the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio hitting 203.69%. In addition to this the Dow continues to move higher while a silent collapse is in progress. The 2020 – 2025 list of stocks shown below have had significant declines from their highs as early as 2020. This is very similar to what occurred when the Dow moved sideways as stocks started a silent collapse between 2000 and 2001. By 2004 fourteen stocks in the Dow 30 had experienced a significant decline. This process started again in 2020 and will continue through 2025. Note that the 2020 – 2025 chart structure will not be similar to that of 2000 – 2004, but Market Maker techniques for a silent collapse will be.
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the specialists (Market Makers) who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
On July 23, 2024 a record level of Non-Commercial Futures Traders Net (Long-Short) positions was recorded for the British Pound. This is well above the previous record set on July 17, 2007. After the July 2007 futures positions peak there was a delay of approximately three and one half months before the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ started a decline. The 10-Yr Note yield was also in decline during this time. With a significantly larger number of futures trader positions recorded on July 23, 2024, a longer delay for a decline in the stock markets is anticipated. It has been five and one half months since the peak on July 23, 2024. The 10-Yr Note yield is currently in decline, as it was in 2007. A decline in the stock markets is still expected as capital from around the world continues to move into U.S. Dollars.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Up to December 11, 2024 investment managers were moving in a direction of being fully invested. Since that time the S&P500 moved down from 6084.19 to 5881.63 on December 31, 2024. The NAAIM index has moved back to a trend line where investment managers are expected to position for a brief rally followed by a decline. A move below the lower trend line would indicate another move upward is expected. Next week should provide additional insight into the direction stock markets.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
