Category: Silver

Posted on

S&P500/Silver: 1980 Pattern

On February 3, 2026 it was noted that the parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. In addition to this a decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 would be expected. This could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Since January 29, 2026, when silver peaked, the S&P500 has started a February 1980 decline pattern. A 17% decline would take the S&P500 down to 5784 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver/S&P500: 1980 2011 2026

S&P500 and silver data covering January1980, April 2011 and January 2026 were reviewed for consistent patterns. After the peak in 1980 and 2011 the S&P550 fell between 16.9% and 17%. The parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. A decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 is expected and could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. During this decline, profits from the peak in metals should move into stocks. The S&P500 would then move higher for the remainder of 2026. In addition to this the current VIX chart structure is similar to 2011 providing a leading indicator for a decline in the S&P500.

Data points:
On January 18, 1980 silver hit a record close of 49.45 with the S&P500 closing at 111.07.
On April 28, 2011 silver hit a record close of 48.41 with the S&P500 closing at 1360.48.
On January 29, 2026 silver hit a record high of 115.79 with the S&P500 closing at 6969.01

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: 2011 vs 2025 SLV Fibonacci Points

On December 24, 2023 it was noted how money from numerous bailouts and rescue packages were approved by Congress between 2020 and 2022. At the time a silver chart structure was developing within an ascending triangle that was on course to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. A quick move up in silver during 2024 was expected. In 2024 precious metals prices started to move higher and are now hitting another peak similar to 2011. The following charts provide some perspective on the current position of SLV compared to 2011.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver/S&P500: Silver Peak – Market Decline

In 1980 silver hit its peak on January 18, 1980 with a close of 49.45. The S&P500 started a 16.69% decline 18 trading days after this peak in silver. The 1980 stock market decline was attributed to an early recession.

In 2011 silver hit a peak on April 29, 2011 with a close of 47.95. The S&P500 started a 17.76% decline 68 trading days from the peak in silver. The August 2011 stock market decline was due to Standard & Poor’s downgrading America’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.

Once again silver is reaching new parabolic highs with the CME raising margin rates. When silver peaks, a decline in the range of 17 percent for the S&P500 would be expected. As of today it would come close to filling the gap created on May 12, 2025 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2025 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts

On June 23, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to increase their holdings of precious metals contracts.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 1974 to 1979

On December 24, 2023 it was noted that during a five year period between 1974 and 1979 various bills with an accumulated cost of $129 billion were approved to stimulate the economy. What followed was a parabolic rise in the price of gold and silver. Between 2020 and 2022 $7.85 trillion in economic stimulus packages were approved. The latest Senate version of their “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” has an estimated cost of $4.2 trillion. Approval of this and economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially, over a five year period this cost will be exponentially larger than what was passed between 1974 and 1979. Using 1974 to 1979 as a model the following charts provide a representation of where gold currently stands compared to where it would be expected to peak.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Rise in 2025

On December 24, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving quickly in a direction to complete a move out of its long term ascending triangle structure. The first chart shows silver moving out of this ascending triangle. The second chart indicates a rise in 2025 will be similar to 2010 – 2011. Trillions of Congressional approved Dollars between 2020 and 2022 have finally made their way through the system. This will drive silver prices much higher.

The following chart percentages are structural measurements not Fibonacci ratios.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Tracking 2007

Silver is currently on track with 2007 based on Non-Commercial Trader weekly net positions vs. the U.S. Dollar. Silver is also in a position similar to where it was in late April 2007. A brief decline is expected between now and October 2025. After this decline, interest rates will affect silver. If rates start to fall, as they did in October 2007, silver should respond by moving higher and peak in the first quarter of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver

On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2024 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts

On March 21, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to hold precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: 400% Fibonacci Level

On February 18, 2024 research indicated silver was expected to move though its ascending triangle. As of March 6, 2025 silver has moved through its ascending triangle and has a Fibonacci structure similar to 1973. On December 24, 2023 major Economic Recovery and Bailout Package approvals were included. The 2020 – 2022 packages were significantly larger than what was approved between 1970 and 1972. This is expected to cause another wave of inflation and rising silver prices. At this point there is no indication silver will move away from the previous 1973 – 1974 chart structure. It is expected to move up to the 400% Fibonacci level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Silver: 2024 Q3 Precious Metal Contracts

On December 12, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to move into precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Relative Value

On October 14, 2024 it was noted that “Engrbytrade™ daily and weekly silver calculations are currently not indicating consistent readings where a significant decline would be expected”. These calculations were based silver bullion and U.S. Dollar values. Additional research indicates the relative value of silver to the U.S. Dollar is provided through their derivatives, SLV and UUP. Calculations for the relative value chart below indicates silver is undervalued and in a position similar to where it was on July 2, 2010.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Silver charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Psychological Gamesmanship

Unlike gold, Engrbytrade™ daily and weekly silver calculations are currently not indicating consistent readings where a significant decline would be expected. There are current structural changes related to 2007. The charts below indicate silver is following a path similar to that of late 2007. What would be expected is a change in silver derivatives that reflect a move to the $40 mark in silver. In 2007 it was the $20 mark where investors were lured as Market Makers sold their inventory to the public. What followed was a sharp decline going into 2008.

Market Makers are once again working on the investor’s anticipation of higher prices in order to sell their inventory to the public. This time it would be expected to see a level of $40 in silver before a decline begins in 2025. This type of psychological gamesmanship is explained in Richard Ney’s book, “Making it in the Market”.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

Gold: 2024 Q2 Derivative Contracts

On September 24, 2024, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities.  Figure 18 on PDF page 42 shows precious metals derivative contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. The banks continue to move into precious metals contracts.

Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks were required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Gold derivatives were considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: To Go Parabolic

On July 10, 2024 it was noted that the current gold pattern was similar to that of the late 1970s. After four years of economic stimulus packages gold will move higher. The reason for this rise was explained in the Silver Ascending Triangle article posted on December 24, 2022. This move upward is expected to go parabolic, as it did in 1979.

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

2020 – 2024

1975 – 1979

 

Posted on

Silver: Upward Direction Confirmation

On August 10, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated traders expect silver to move significantly higher, just as it did in 2010. On August 12, 2024 daily Engrbytrade™ silver derivative calculations provided an upward direction confirmation of futures trader expectations. The following chart indicates silver is on a path that is similar to what occurred in 2010.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: BRICS Development Bank

On August 15, 1971 Richard Nixon announced the suspension of converting dollars into gold or other reserve assets. This event was followed by silver prices moving higher between 1971 and 1974.

On June 6, 1974 the Saudi Petrodollar Memorandum of Conversation was issued. This initiated the process of Saudi Arabia investing proceeds of oil sales into U.S. Treasury’s. It also provided the U.S with a global reserve currency. The price of silver continued to rise as Economic Recovery and Bailout Packages continued to grow exponentially.

Forty years later a select group of countries signed the BRICS Development Bank Treaty in July, 2014. This bank will simplify settlement and lending among BRICS countries and reduce the dependence on U.S. Dollars and Euros for trade. It will also start a long term trend of Dollars moving back to the U.S. as countries around the world conduct trade with their own currencies. The price of silver is expected to move higher over the long term as this process continues.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

 

Posted on

S&P500/Silver: 1973 Structures

On April 17, 2024, a pull back within silver’s ascending triangle was expected. Silver did pull back into May and then continued to move higher. This move is consistent with the 1971 – 1973 silver structure shown below. As silver started to move higher in 1973, the S&P hit its peak on January 11, 1973 and started a decline the following day.  The current 2024 structures are expected to continue on a path that is similar to the 1973 structures.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

1971 – 1973

2021 – 2024

Posted on

Silver: Computer Program Selling

On March 30, 2024 it was noted that confirmation was needed in silver before it could move higher. A review of daily Engrbytrade™ calculations currently indicate a pullback within silver’s long term ascending triangle is planned. Similar pullback signals occurred on August 10, 2020 and February 1, 2021. Since April 3, 2024, computer program selling of very large block trades in derivative products, such as SLV, has increased. The long term move upward from silver’s ascending triangle is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Distribution Trades

On March 7, 2024 it was noted that a confirmation move above silver’s ascending triangle was needed before both metals are expected to move higher. The chart below illustrates a technique used by Market Makers to distribute their inventory to retail investors. Prior to the move up in April 2024, short term computer algorithms were initiated by Market Makers to accumulate inventory. A move upward was then made for distribution trades between April 2, 2024 and April 3, 2024. Silver is still expected to stay within its ascending triangle based on the need to fill a futures market gap created on March 1, 2024 at 11:05 a.m.

“If specialists want investors to buy stock, they simply raise stock prices sharply. This creates demand. If they want to cause massive selling, they drop prices precipitously. It is merely a problem in engineering.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 85

Note that the chart shown below is for research purposes only and is not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer