Category: VIX

On October 15, 2025 an initial review identified the VIX was providing an early warning signal. The initial 3 point peak structure in 2025 was similar to the structure developed in 2011. As weeks passed this structure was compared to 2006-2007, and 2019-2020. The result as of March 6, 2026 shows this chart structure is very close to 2010-2011 with the final move starting on a 44.05 degree trend line. If this move continues, a rise above 55 would be expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On January 14, 2026 it was noted that the VIX developed a 44.05 degree angle during the first half of January 2026. The VIX continues to follow this trend line as shown below.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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On December 21, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. If retail investors continued on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.

During the first half of January 2026 the VIX developed a 44.05 degree angle. This is the same angle that was developed in July 2011. It is very unusual and would indicate a market decline is very close.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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The following charts show the VIX is developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. A review of trades in VIX ETFs revealed very few big blocks along with a large number of small trades. Retail investors are increasing their activity while hedge funds are selling. If retail investors continue on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.

CNBC – November 13, 2025
“Hedge funds are still dumping stocks while retail investors keep the bull market alive”

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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The VIX continues to follow its 2011 structure. Note that the VIX hit a low of 15.12 on July 1, 2011. Watch for news from the financial media on topics ranging from disappointing earnings, slow growth, etc. As soon as markets start to turn the media will provide a long list of reasons.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On November 18, 2025 the VIX hit 25 as it aligned with June 2011. Now it appears to be moving to align with July 2011. December 2025 should reveal the direction of markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

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On November 13, 2025 the VIX was in the process of moving toward a structure that was similar to May 2011. After hitting 25, it appears the current chart aligns with June 2011. Using 2011, a quick rally followed by a decline in the markets would be expected. Market adjustments will made based on economic data provided to the Government.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On October 29, 2025 VIX charts were in the process of providing an early warning signal for future volatility. Initial readings indicated the VIX was similar to its 2020 structure. At this point the November 2025 readings indicate the VIX is moving toward a structure that is similar to May 2011. A decline in the markets is expected as adjustments are made due lack of economic data related to the Government shutdown.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The following charts indicate the VIX is still in the process of providing an early warning signal for future volatility. It appears the current VIX chart structure was directly or indirectly developed based on its 2019 chart structure. In either case, a decline in the markets is expected. The timeline and depth of this decline has yet to be determined.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The following charts indicate the VIX is providing an early warning signal for future volatility. The 3 point peak structure in 2025 is similar to the structure developed in 2011. This is expected to lead to a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ going into the first quarter of 2026. This is also expected to lead to a sharp drop in interest rates, just as they did in 2011.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations show that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018. This indicates stock markets will continue to move higher, as they did between October 30, 2018 and November 8, 2018, with an eight day trading rally. Based on this comparison, a brief rally is expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets start to move lower.

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The following 1-hour VIX rising wedge pattern is based on the August – October S&P500 falling wedge data points identified on October 4, 2023.

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On November 15, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirmed the VIX would move below 22 to a lower trend line illustrated on November 11, 2022. This move was completed in late November as the Dow and S&P500 continued to move higher while Market Makers distributed their inventory. Since that time, the VIX has moved below 18 and is expected to decline below 16.44 based on a 1-hour futures gap created on September 7, 2021 that will need to be filled. The structural design of the January 2022 to February 2023 chart shown below is very similar to that of the chart structure created between September 2007 and May 2008. The details needed to create the current 2022 to 2023 chart based on a 2007 to 2088 chart structure indicates a significant amount of planning went into this effort. Additional data will be needed to confirm the probability of a repeat performance of 2008 in 2023.

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Filling the gap in slow motion. Be patient.

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A drop below 21.67 is expected to complete filling the gap created on August 22, 2022. An intraday move down to the red trend line shown in the chart below is also needed before moving significantly higher as it did during September – October 2008.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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One example of market structures created and implemented during the course of predetermined time frames. It appears a significant decline is coming and 2023 will not be a good year based on the following weekly charts.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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