Gold/Dollar/Euro: Gold 2023 Decline

Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 1971 vs 2023

Between April 28, 1971 and August 10, 1971, the following 1971 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 839.60 on August 10, 1971 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between late August 1971 and early September 1971 before starting a decline that would end on November 23, 1971.

Between December 1, 2021 and October 13, 2022 the 2021 – 2023 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 30,038 on October 13, 2022 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between November 2022 and May 2023. It appears the Dow is in the process of repeating the 1971 structure shown below. Using this model, the Dow is expected to move down to 25,738 by mid- July 2022.  This 23% decline would be twice as large as the 11.5% decline from October 7, 1971 (901.8) to November 23, 1971 (798).

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: 2018 vs 2023 Fed Outlook

On September 26, 2018, just before the Dow and S&P500 peaked on October 3, 2018 Jerome Powell said, “The economy is strong.” This was followed by a 19% decline in the S&P500 and a 24% decline in the Dow. On May 3, 2023 Jerome Powell said “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.” Another collapse is expected.

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  • FOMC Press Conference – Sept. 26, 2018

  • FOMC Press Conference, May 3, 2023

S&P500: May 13, 2023 Calculation Update

On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 3,887 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate S&P500 algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 3,872 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: May 13, 2023 Calculation Update

On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 31,465 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate Dow algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 30,808 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Distribution Time Frames

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow and S&P500 calculations continue to indicate Market Makers are still in the process of distributing large quantities of stock during the latest 2023 time frame shown below. This process is described in Richard Ney’s books when NYSE Specialists managed the order flow. During the last quarter of 2021 Market Makers conducted a similar distribution process before moving markets lower.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: 1973 Point 14

Based on the 1973 Model Representation update shown below, the Dow and S&P500 are still within range of Point #14. It was observed that computers initiated a series of repetitive programs during the last week of April 2023. This is similar to what occurred during the second week of February 2023. A decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Dow: Decline to May 15, 2023

The declining S&P500 and Dow 1-hour futures charts are in the process of developing chart structures that are similar to 1-hour futures charts developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Based on this development, the S&P500 futures chart is expected to move down to 3887 by May 15, 2023 and the Dow futures chart is expected to move down to 31,465 by May 15, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: April 2022 vs April 2023

The Dow daily chart (and 1-hr futures chart) structure between March 1, 2022 and April 20, 2022 is similar to the S&P500 chart structure developed between March 6, 2023 and May 1, 2023. Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations and technical indicators show that upon completion a Dow structure this week that is similar to what was developed between March 1, 2022 and April 21, 2022, a sharp decline is expected with the Dow and S&P500 moving below 31,874 and 3,855 respectively.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Global Project

A series of documented global project events were initiated between 2020 and 2023 that will require reimbursement beyond $12.5 trillion to financiers in the form of a market collapse that is expected to occur in 2023.

Project Scope:
Initiate public/private partnerships necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences. Monitor the effects of a coronavirus passing to humans with “no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year”. (Derived from Event 201)

Project Schedule:
This project schedule was initiated on January 1, 2020 when Xinhua News reported the Huanan Seafood Market was closed on 1 January 2020 for cleaning and disinfection. This project will be complete when the Public Health Emergency expires on May 11, 2023.

Project Cost:
IMF sees pandemic cost rising beyond $12.5 trillion estimate by 2024.

Payment must be made with a market collapse in 2023.

Engrbytrade™ calculations to date support the expectation of a decline in 2023.

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Interest Rates: 2023 30-Yr vs 2018 10-Yr

Weekly Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate a situation exists where futures traders are creating a 30-Yr yield descending triangle that is similar to the 2018 10-yr yield descending triangle shown below. A brief move upward in the 10-Yr and 30-Yr yield is expected. This will be followed by a decline during the remainder of 2023 as stock markets move lower.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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