The Market’s Dirty Little Secret w/ Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley | On The Tape Podcast
Silver: 2023 vs 2019
Based on weekly Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations, silver is in the process of repeating chart structures developed between 2017 and 2019, as shown below. The result of this structural development indicates a sharp decline is expected in 2023 that is similar to what occurred during the first quarter of 2020.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Positioning for Distributions
In addition to S&P500 positioning for distributions, daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between March 6, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 19, 2021 through November 11, 2021, as well as December 8, 2021 through January 6, 2021. This positioning indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Positioning for Distributions
Daily Engrbytrade™ S&P500 calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021. This positioning also indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Symmetrical Collapse Continues
The Dow briefly moved outside of its Symmetrical Collapse Structure between April 3, 2023 and April 4, 2023, as shown below. On April 4, 2023 Dow futures moved within 86 points of the lower range of the target noted on March 31, 2023. The Dow is expected to continue moving lower within this structure during 2023. On February 25, 2023 it was noted that the end result will be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow.
Dow: March 31 Target
The rate of change has accelerated. As of 4:00 p.m. ET, the Dow futures price is within 1.1% of its target noted on March 31, 2023.
Dow: 2021 Algorithms
As noted on March 29, 2023, Dow algorithms initiated a chart structure on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET to recreate a Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Since that time, machine driven algorithms include calculations for the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. This is similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow is expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Fast Track
Starting on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET Dow futures have been on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. The Dow is currently in a similar position to where it was on May 25, 2022. Based on the current rate of speed, it is expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. This move would keep the Dow on the edge of the 2020 – 2023 Dow Symmetrical Collapse model boundary. Data will continue to be monitored for any changes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: Trend Higher
Engrbytrade™ daily calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. This turn follows a similar three month pattern setup when calculations from December 23, 2021 and March 21, 2022 indicated a move up was expected. On December 27, 2022 the first signal was received. Three months later on March 28, 2023 the second signal was received. This move upward aligns with an expectation of a decline in the stock markets during 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: October 2022 vs March 2023
Since March 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET it appears that machine driven algorithms have been developing a 1-hour chart structure that is similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Although the current 1-hour chart trajectory is similar to October 2022, volatility in March 2023 is significantly higher. In the past It has also been observed that machine driven algorithms start developing a chart structure from a previous period, but may shift to using a chart structure from a different time period as prices move higher. Speed of travel and volatility will be monitored for updates if needed.
Interest Rates: U.S. 10-Yr Note Yield Decline
On November 6, 2022 it was noted that weekly futures trading data calculations indicated the 10-Year note yield was peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018. The 10-Year note has slowly declined from 4.218 on November 7, 2022 to 3.373 on March 24, 2023. As of March 24, 2023 the 10Y-Yr note is in a similar position to where it was on November 16, 2018. Current weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Yr note yield is expected to conduct a decline similar to what occurred between November 2018 and September 2019. The 2022 to 2023 chart shown below provides a trend line of 18.25 degrees below the x-axis and overlays Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 2017. This indicates a steady decline below 1.5% is expected by the end of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Ed Dowd – Rate Cuts
‘Emergency’ Fed rate cut by June, only 6 U.S. banks will be left by 2025 paving way for CBDC – Dowd
Economy: Collapse Process on Track
Yellen Calls for Emergency Meeting as Surging Depositor Outflows Threaten to Crash More Banks
Dow/Silver: Dow vs Silver 2008 – 2023
It should be noted that the collapse in 2023 is expected to be significantly worse than 2008. Bear Stearns failed in March of 2008, Indy Mac failed in July 2008 with the majority of institutions failing in September 2008. In March 2023 alone, several institutions have already failed, received a bailout, or are in the process of merging. This is an ominous sign of things to come. Few remember that during the last half of 2008 when the financial system was collapsing, institutions and traders were selling precious metals to cover their losses. The charts below show a comparison between 2008 and 2023 for the Dow and Silver.
2008
Bear Stearns – March 16, 2008
Indy Mac, F.S.B, Pasadena, CA – July 11, 2008
Fanny Mae – September 6, 2008
Freddy Mac – September 6, 2008
Merrill Lynch & Co. – September 14, 2008
Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008
AIG – September 16, 2008
WaMu – September 25, 2008
2023
Silvergate Capital – March 8, 2023 – shut down
Silicon Valley Bank – March 10, 2023 – bankrupt
Signature Bank – March 10, 2023 – failed
First Republic – March 17, 2023 – bailout rescue package
Credit Suisse – March 19, 2023 – Merger with UBS
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Timeline Reset
Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023. Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: FOMC Press Coverage
FOMC Press Conference Video Coverage
Jerome Powell
March 22, 2023
2:30 PM ET
Dow: Rate of Rise Accelerating
Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.
Dow: Rally to April 27, 2023
Based on the falling wedge pattern noted on March 18, 2023 and an update of preliminary futures structural data, a 28 trading day (+/- 1 trading day) rally to April 27, 2023 appears to have started today (March 20, 2023). This is similar to the move up between October 13, 2022 and November 23, 2022. Following this rally another decline is expected to continue into the end of 2023.
Economy: Bear Stearns
Timing is important.
JPMorgan scoops up troubled Bear
March 16, 2008
JP Morgan Chase to Buy Bear Stearns
Economy: Credit Suisse
March 19, 2023
UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Swiss central bank confirms
Dow: Falling Wedge Pattern
The current falling wedge shown in the first chart is a repeat of September 2022. Completion of this wedge is expected to fill a gap located between 31,517 and 31,523 that was created in the Dow futures chart on October 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m. EST. A move upward will start when this is complete.
Dow: 5-Min Chart
Watch the 5-minute futures chart. It appears an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading chart was initiated on March 17, 2023 at 4:25 a.m. EST. It is currently on point 6. This move down could fill the 5-min chart gap developed above 31,517 on 10/25/22 at 9:45 a.m. before moving higher.
Dow: March 15 Gap
A gap was created in the Dow 5-minute futures chart on March 15, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. EST. A brief drop below 31,691 to fill this gap should be anticipated before moving higher. Volatility will continue.
Dow: April 13, 2023
Preliminary structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up until April 13, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). This is the time frame when Federal Reserve Meeting minutes from March 21-22, 2023 would be scheduled for release on April 12, 2023. Additional data will be required to determine a price target range.
Technical analysts should note that October 3, 2022 – October 4, 2022 and March 16, 2023 contain similar values for the following lower tier technical indicators. Default settings are included.
Commodity channel Index CCI (periods =14)
Stochastic %D (periods=15,%K avg=3,%D=3)
Volume Oscillator OSCV (fast avg=9, slow avg=18)
Relative Momentum Index RMI (periods=20,momentum=5)
Relative Strength Index RSI (periods=15)
Dow: Futures Gap Filled
On March 13, 2023 a 3 point gap was created in the Dow futures index at 8:55 a.m. EST as the Dow started to move higher. On March 15, 2023 that gap was filled when the Dow dropped to 31,774 at 6:50 a.m. EST.