Engrbytrade Posts

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Interest Rates: 10Yr Non-Commercial Trader Adjustments

On February 28, 2026 it was noted that Non-Commercial Traders were holding a significant number of short positions. A slow and deliberate decline in rates was expected over the coming months. On March 10, 2026, Non- Commercial Traders adjusted their positions in what appears to be a preliminary move for declining rates. This is similar to what occurred on November 6, 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – March 11 2026

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Index Decline

On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Bitcoin vs. S&P500

On February 4, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin’s structural point was similar to where the Bitcoin Model was in March 1980. Bitcoin appears to have hit a low as the S&P500 starts to roll over. Just as it did in January 2022. This aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. A bitcoin move to its previous highs would be expected before a significant decline. During this decline bankers and hedge funds would buy as many bitcoins as possible. It is obvious that bankers are attempting to use the Euro as a model to develop bitcoin as a new “digital currency”. Will they be successful? That remains to be seen.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear and Greed March 6 2026

March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.

Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

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VIX: Final Move

On October 15, 2025 an initial review identified the VIX was providing an early warning signal. The initial 3 point peak structure in 2025 was similar to the structure developed in 2011. As weeks passed this structure was compared to 2006-2007, and 2019-2020. The result as of March 6, 2026 shows this chart structure is very close to 2010-2011 with the final move starting on a 44.05 degree trend line. If this move continues, a rise above 55 would be expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 2026 Rate Decline

On May 24, 2025 it was noted that the 2022 to 2025 10Yr Note structure was duplicating the 2005 to 2007 chart structure. The 10Yr rate has fallen below the 19.3 degree trend line as it did in late August 2007. The Non-Commercial Trader chart shown below continues to indicate traders are holding a significant number of short positions. A slow and deliberate decline is expected over the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 25 2026

As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: IBM 1999 vs 2026

During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.

Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 18 2026

As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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S&P500: Rising Wedge Block Trades

The current rising wedge in the S&P500 appears to be very similar to the last half of 2024. This by itself could be something to be concerned about. What is striking are the number of extremely large seven figure block trades that have been crossing the tape since November 2025. As time passes, the trades have been increasing in their appearance and size. This includes companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. This type of activity also happened on a smaller scale in late 2024 and early 2025 prior to the S&P500 decline between February and April.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Stocks Decline

On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 11 2026

As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Microsoft – Apple

On February 9, 2026 it was observed that during September 2025 Microsoft had multiple $2.0B big blocks crossing the tape. This inventory  was distributed to large institutions. At this point it appears big blocks are moving out of Apple and into Microsoft. If this continues Microsoft could continue to stay above its lower trend line and provide a repeat performance of the last half of 1999.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Microsoft Accumulation Distribution

Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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S&P500/Silver: 1980 Pattern

On February 3, 2026 it was noted that the parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. In addition to this a decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 would be expected. This could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Since January 29, 2026, when silver peaked, the S&P500 has started a February 1980 decline pattern. A 17% decline would take the S&P500 down to 5784 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 4 2026

As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Index Selling

On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Silver/S&P500: 1980 2011 2026

S&P500 and silver data covering January1980, April 2011 and January 2026 were reviewed for consistent patterns. After the peak in 1980 and 2011 the S&P550 fell between 16.9% and 17%. The parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. A decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 is expected and could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. During this decline, profits from the peak in metals should move into stocks. The S&P500 would then move higher for the remainder of 2026. In addition to this the current VIX chart structure is similar to 2011 providing a leading indicator for a decline in the S&P500.

Data points:
On January 18, 1980 silver hit a record close of 49.45 with the S&P500 closing at 111.07.
On April 28, 2011 silver hit a record close of 48.41 with the S&P500 closing at 1360.48.
On January 29, 2026 silver hit a record high of 115.79 with the S&P500 closing at 6969.01

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Interest Rates: 10 Year Note Short Positions

On January 5, 2026 it was noted that Non-Commercial Trader short positions were significant. Rates were also expected to fall in 2026. The Fed started dropping rates on September 18, 2024.  On December 10, 2025 the target rate was dropped to 3.75%. The 10Yr Note rate is currently in a holding pattern as it rides a 19.3 degree support line shown in the following 2026 10Yr chart. Rates are still expected to fall. The rate of change will depend on an unexpected financial event, the bond market, or Federal Reserve.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Swiss Franc vs Gold

Research indicates non-commercial futures trader contract positions for Swiss Francs inherently provides a leading indicator for gold. The following charts show a relationship between Swiss France contracts and gold going back to 2018. The most recent signal on January 27, 2026 indicates gold is expected to continue moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – January 28 2026

As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.

Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dollar/Gold: Weak Dollar 2017 vs 2025

Between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 the Dollar declined 9.4% while gold rose 64.70%. When you compare this to the previous Trump administration where the Dollar declined 10.41% and gold rose 13.11%, it is not about the price of gold. It is about the value of the Dollar. Steve Mnuchin (Investment Banker) was the Treasury Secretary between February 2017 and January 2021. Scott Bessent (hedge fund manager) was appointed in January 2025. Based on their actions both Treasury Secretaries prefer a weak Dollar policy regardless of who is President. It is apparent they were looking for an immediate 10% decline in the Dollar during the first year of their appointment. After the 2017 Dollar decline, it retraced up to the 103.0 range before dropping once again in 2020.

As of January 20, 2026, Commitment of Traders futures data patterns and calculations indicated Gold, Silver, S&P500, and 30 year treasury bond (relative to the Dollar) were in a position similar to where they were on December 18, 2007. Based on this data, it appears gold and silver still have some room to move higher. As additional data is provided adjustments may be needed.

Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Janet Yellen – Feb 3, 2014 – Feb 3, 2018
Strong Dollar policy
Treasury Secretary: Steven Mnuchin, Investment Banker
(February 13, 2017 – January 20, 2021)
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 2, 2017 – December 29, 2017
1151.46 to 1302.45 = 13.113% increase
USD – January 2, 2017 – December 31, 2017
102.83 to 92.12 = 10.41% decrease

Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Jerome Powell – Feb 5, 2018 –
Treasury Secretary: Scott Bessent, Hedge Fund Manager
(January 28, 2025…… )
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
2624.38 to 4322.61 = 64.70% increase
USD – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
108.48 to 98.28 = 9.4% decrease

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer