Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow: Big Block Trades

Trading patterns within the Dow stocks are replicating what occurred in January 2026. Trades at the close are crossing the tape with over 8 and 9 million shares again. This by itself would not be a problem except the Dow is in a  rising wedge format that is similar to the 2025 – 2026 structure. Other stocks that are seeing very large blocks are Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Microsoft trades are starting to move into the $3 billion range at the close. If we see another 1,000+ point day, it could be a problem, depending on what Market Makers have in mind.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10-Yr Note Rate Expectations

On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was their first rate cut in four years. In late October 2007 rates started dropping until the end of March 2008.

On September 18, 2024 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was also their first cut in four years. Since their last rate cut occurred the 10-Yr rate has moved up 0.86% to 4.56%.

Non-Commercial futures traders are still positioned where interest rates are expected to fall. It appears the Fed, bond market, or both are waiting for something to trigger a rate decline. Overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Trump…”Ceasefire is over”

On Friday morning, June 10, 2026, the news wire was hit with “President Trump agrees to continue talks with Iran, but says ceasefire is over”. Shortly after 10:30 a. m. ET algorithms picked on this news and immediately started repricing stocks relative to risk. Four and five figure trades in Dow stocks were running through the system hitting tight stop-loss orders along the way. This provided additional inventory for Market Makers and Liquidity Providers. After this repricing event they used this inventory to distribute stock while moving prices higher until the end of the day. The public looked at a market close that did not warrant their attention and moved on. The Dow closed up 149 points (+0.29%).

 

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – July 8, 2026

As of July 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 82.95. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on July 5, 2023. Investment managers are still bullish.

July 8, 2026
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 58.71
NAAIM Number: 82.95

July 5, 2023
Most Bearish Response: -50
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 50.49
NAAIM Number: 83.11

S&P500 peak: July 27, 2023
Dow peak: July 27, 2023
NASDAQ 100 peak: July 19, 2023

Based on NAAIM readings, 5-Day Moving Average put/call option positions, etc., a decline would be expected to start later in the month of July.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Bitcoin/Dollar/Gold: Intermarket Links

On July 6, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin Non-Commercial futures traders net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. Traders are also providing some intermarket insight to the direction of the Dollar and Gold as well. Their Bitcoin positions have been building since the beginning of 2026 and link indirectly to the U.S. Dollar and Gold. Based on the latest data it is expected that Bitcoin will move higher, the Dollar will move lower and Gold will move higher during the coming months. The following charts provide a general direction for each.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Bitcoin: Extreme Net Long Positions

On June 7, 2026 it was noted that futures traders confirmed their expectation that Bitcoin would move higher in the coming months. Net long positions continue to grow as bitcoin trades around the 60,000 mark. This still aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Bitcoin is expected to move higher before making a long term decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model

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Dow: 2025 – 2026 Trend Lines

The Dow and other indices work within a programmed range using a margin of error over the long term. When a shift occurs, as it did during the first four months of 2025, parameters reset and the system continues. This type of behavior was addressed by Richard Ney in the 1970s. Is it that simple. No. Today, everything is handled by high speed computers. There are also many factors that interact with these boundaries. Investor sentiment, liquidity providers order flow interaction with trader stop loss orders, news events causing a sharp change in direction are just a few. The Dow may bump against the current upper trend line and then move back down to the next channel as it moves higher.  Still monitoring sentiment, options positions and very large block trades to see where the next turning point will be.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – July 1, 2026

As of July 1, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 84.69 and continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Exposure index related readings are very close to what was recorded on November 12, 2025. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow: 2026 Rising Wedge

The Dow Jones Index continues to move upward on a path within a rising wedge, just as it did between late 2025 and early 2026. In addition to this, Alphabet replaced Verizon in the Dow Jones Index on June 29, 2026. Alphabet joins a group of Dow stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Microsoft, and NVIDIA that move very large seven figure trades on a regular basis. The inclusion of Alphabet sounds like November 8, 2024 when NVIDIA replaced Intel and Sherman-Williams replaced Dow, Inc. That change was followed by a decline that started in February 2025. Based on the current chart structure, a change in a Dow component, and large distributions, it appears a decline is being planned for the near future.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold/Silver: 2026 Q1 Precious Metal Contracts

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. A total value of $820 billion in precious metal contracts were recorded.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation  Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R

Source: Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Dollar: Non-Commercial Trader Position

The current U.S. Dollar Non-Commercial Futures Trader net-long position is similar to where it was in mid-June 2008. This by itself would not be out of the ordinary, but other futures products such as Copper, Euro, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P500, and Silver also have net-long positions that are similar to where they were in mid-June 2008. Just an observation.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Reallocation of Capital

On June 24, 2026 it was noted that the 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio was expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback. At this point the ratio is 0.994 as the S&P500 and SPY continue to decline. Market Makers did not disappoint on Friday with significant volume and the reallocation of capital. Volume was well above average for stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft. A pullback in the markets is still expected as volatility increases.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – June 24, 2026

As of June 24, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.59. The index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are currently leveraged long and bullish, as they were on August 20, 2025.

With the end of the second quarter it was observed in Dow stock trading that investment managers, hedge funds, etc., were reducing their risk by moving into stocks with lower volatility. Very large seven figure block trades crossed the tape on June 18, 2026 (Options Expiration) as well as June 22 and June 24.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Put/Call Positioning

Between April and June 2026, Market Makers were in the process of positioning for another pullback in the markets as the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. The 5 Day Average Put/Call ratio is currently expected to continue moving upward toward 1.0 as markets start a pullback.

During the end of options expiration week on June 18, 2026, the S&P500 rose 1.08% and the Semiconductor ETF, SOXX moved up 6.62%. The financial media provided investors with a positive outlook prior to a long weekend in order to keep them in the market.
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2% as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off

The type of activity mentioned above also occurred between December 2017 and January 2018. During that time the CBOE Options Total Put/Call 5 Day Moving Average dropped three times below the 0.80 level. A decline in the S&P500 followed in January 2018 and ended in late March 2018, as shown in the following chart.

During the options expiration week on January 17, 2018 the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time with a 1.08% move. The S&P500 moved up 0.77%. The media convinced investors that the bull market was still intact prior to a sharp decline starting on January 30, 2018.
Dow spikes 322 points, closes above 26,000 for the first time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/NASDAQ: IPO Trends

Over 400 companies had an IPO in 2000. Three out of the largest group of 25 were issued in the first half of the year. Anthropic and OpenAI have submitted an initial confidential registration form (S-1) to the SEC. It remains to be seen if they will follow through with an IPO. If they do, it could look like the first half of 2000 with SpaceX leading the way.

The 431 Companies That Had Their IPO In 2000

The 25 Biggest U.S. IPOs of All Time

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Rising Wedge

While tech stocks are grabbing most of the attention, Dow algorithms have been working on developing a rising wedge since April 2026. A similar rising wedge was formed in 2008 prior to a three month decline. It would be prudent to pay attention to this since there is a high probability that a decline will occur.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: MSFT 2026 vs 2000

Up to this point Microsoft’s (MSFT) stock price is in a structural position similar to where it was in July 2000. This time AI is involved. On March 31, 2026 it was noted that Microsoft closed their worst (first) quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. It is interesting that the Microsoft Market Maker, exchange insiders, etc., are using a similar price structure from 2000. It is also unknown if this same pattern will continue. But, if it does the outlook for MSFT is not good.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: SPY 15 Minute Chart Gaps

The S&P500 opened with a gap up on Monday, June 15, 2026. Reviewing 15-minute gaps in the SPY and other S&P500 derivative ETF products, there is a high probability the index will pull back to fill the June 15, 2026 opening gap. When this gap is filled additional information may be available to determine the overall direction of stock markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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AAII Sentiment Survey – June 10, 2026

Over the last week investors started to lean quickly toward a bearish position as markets moved lower.  There is a bearish reading of 47.70% and bullish reading of 30.40%. This aligns with other sentiment indicators. A move above 50% for the AAIIBear indicator should be monitored closely for markets changing direction.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

AAII Sentiment Survey

AAII Asset Allocation Survey for May 2026

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – June 10, 2026

As of June 10, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 79.27. This position is similar to where it was on July 23, 2025 with a reading of 81.07. For the moment the index continues to follow the 2025 pattern. Investment managers are hedged and bullish.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Low Range Readings

While markets move lower at an increasing rate, the CNN Fear & Greed Index will adjust accordingly. Two key readings have been under observation at market lows over the last few years that fall into the following parameters.
1. CNN Fear & Greed Index less than or equal to 20.
2. CNN Put and Call Options Index greater than or equal to 0.90.
Generally, when readings have met these parameters at the same time, markets are in, or are moving into, a range of another low as shown in the following chart.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple 2025 – 2026 Pattern

It is apparent that Market Maker and Liquidity Provider algorithms are providing a road map for Apple based on its 2024 structure. A move below the lower trend line will indicate a steady short term decline is in progress. This will provide all the liquidity needed for exchange insiders when markets turn and move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Bitcoin: Long Term Expectations

As of June 2, 2026 futures traders confirmed their expectation that Bitcoin would move higher in the coming months. This indicates price movements should follow the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model based on Euro values between 1971 and 1985. Therefore Bitcoin should make one final push above 100,000 before making a long term decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer