Engrbytrade Posts

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Interest Rates: TLT Trend Line

On May 4, 2026 it was noted that over the last four years the 30 Year rate chart structure has been moving higher on a 21.82 degree trend line. Along with this TLT followed an 8.32 degree trend line in 2011, 2018, and 2026. In October and November 2018 rates moved higher and then fell. TLT briefly dropped below its trend line during this time before moving higher. That may also be possible in 2026.. In each case Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory before TLT moved higher. Whether it is a repeat of algorithms, policies, procedures, plans, etc., Market Makers are certainly consistent in this case.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/NASDAQ: CISCO Structure

History provides some insight to Market Maker activities. One example is Cisco.  Based on the 2000 Cisco chart structure there was a period between 1993 and 1998 when Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory. As this occurred there were 2 cycles between 1997 and 1998 before it started to move significantly higher.

It appears Market Makers are repeating their work from 2000. The 2026 Cisco chart reflects a similar structure where Market Makers accumulated inventory between 2010 and early 2016. There were also 2 cycles between 2019 and 2022 before it started to move significantly higher.

At this point it is unknown if Market Makers will continue to use the 2000 structure as a model. If they do it will be an impressive move.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – May 13 2026

As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: AAII Sentiment Survey

Once a week a sentiment survey is conducted by AAII Investors. They provide their opinion on the direction of markets over the next six months. When there is a large divergence between Bulls and Bears a turning point is near. This, along with other technical indicators, can be helpful.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Reference: American Association of Individual Investors Survey

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – May 6 2026

As of May 6, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 96.67.  NAAIM data indicates investment managers are leveraged long and still extremely bullish. The current 2026 NAAIM index pattern is similar to late 2024 and near the reading of 98.93 on November 27, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Interest Rates: 30Yr Rate

Over the last four years the 30 Year rate structure has been moving higher on a 21.82 degree trend line. This structure was developed on a smaller scale during 2018 with a 21.82 degree trend line. Current big block volume continues to indicate Market Makers are accumulating TLT, just as they did in 2018. The data indicates exchange insiders know a significant event is coming and they are making preparations for it.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Candle Sequence

On May 1, 2026 a shooting star appeared in the S&P500 and SPY. Prior to this a bearish engulfing candle appeared on April 21, 2026. This same sequence occurred on February 9, 2023 and February 16, 2023. It was followed by a 5.6% decline in the SPY before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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SP500: End of April 2026

The SP500 and SPY are going into the end of April with:
1. New Intraday Highs
2. SPY Engulfing bearish candle on April 21, 2026
3. Decreasing SPY Volume in April
4. CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio 5-Day Moving Average low on April 17, 2026 (Options Expiration)
5. One SPY big block trade over 2 million shares in April
6. Retail traders were very active in April

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – April 22, 2026

As of April 22, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 94.15. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are extremely bullish. Previous bullish positions with similar characteristics are shown below.
Dates with comparative NAAIM readings:
January 17, 2018 – 94.09 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 8, 2020 – 94.16 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 6, 2021 – 94.51 – markets continued to move higher

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Bitcoin: Futures Trader Positions

Bitcoin continues to develop a structure where the current price point is in a position similar to where the Euro was in April 1980. Turning points for each move upward since 2022 have been identified in the following chart. Bitcoin Non-Commercial Futures Trader Net positions indicate another move upward is expected this year. This would place Bitcoin near its high to be in line with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model page.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Options vs S&P500

On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – April 15, 2026

As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Put/Call Ratio Input

On April 14, 2026, the CBOE Put/Call ratio index dropped to 0.68. The last two times this occurred was on June 12, 2024 (0.66) and May 15, 2025 (0.68). At this point the Equity Put/Call ratio does not indicate that a top is near. Using this input, markets would be expected to continue moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Index Gap

On Thursday, April 9, 2026 it was noted that stock market indices opened higher on April 8, 2026 with a significant gap. This did not occur in a majority of index related charts in the extended session. Additional research shows a gap in the DDM derivative that could be filled within the next 30 days. This will depend on computer algorithm decisions to address this gap before markets move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: 2026 Decline

On August 24, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated the Euro would continue to follow a descending broadening wedge. Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations also indicated the Euro would move to its upper trend line. Since that time the Euro hit the upper trend line between 120 and 121. Futures trading data currently indicates another decline has started.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Extended Hours Trading

On Wednesday, April 8, 2026 stock markets opened higher with a significant gap. In some cases a pull back to fill this gap would be expected. What many investors did not catch is what happened in the previous extended hours session. A steady flow of trades through index derivatives such as SPY, DIA, UPRO, occurred prior to the open on Wednesday. A pull back is possible to fill specific gaps, but unlikely based on the level of trading conducted prior to the 9:30 open.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – April 8, 2026

As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Gold/Silver: 2025 Q4 Precious Metal Contracts

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 18 on page 43 shows notional amounts of precious metals derivative contract exposure by maturity held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continued to increase their exposure each quarter in 2025.

Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR, gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation. Source: Call reports, Schedule RC-R

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Silver: $3.4 Trillion Economic Stimulus Package

Silver has had a history of rising rapidly one to two years after bailout and rescue packages are approved. The most recent stimulus package of $3.4 trillion is still expected to push silver prices higher in 2026 or 2027. Funds approved in this package are affecting corporate project plans, and military contractors are not too far behind. Commodities, such as silver, will be on their procurement list.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Silver: 2011 Pattern

On February 7, 2025 it was noted that the S&P500 was expected to follow the 1980 pattern. Since January 29, 2026 the S&P500 has declined 8.6%. Volume has remained relatively constant while the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio and sentiment indicators point to a very short term low. If this is the case, it would appear the S&P500 is following a pattern similar to 2011. Over the next several days, trading activity or geopolitical events should provide clarity to the direction of markets. A nominal decline of 17% is still expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: AAII Sentiment Survey

The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10Yr Non-Commercial Trader Adjustments

On February 28, 2026 it was noted that Non-Commercial Traders were holding a significant number of short positions. A slow and deliberate decline in rates was expected over the coming months. On March 10, 2026, Non- Commercial Traders adjusted their positions in what appears to be a preliminary move for declining rates. This is similar to what occurred on November 6, 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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