Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Microsoft Accumulation Distribution

Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Silver: 1980 Pattern

On February 3, 2026 it was noted that the parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. In addition to this a decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 would be expected. This could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Since January 29, 2026, when silver peaked, the S&P500 has started a February 1980 decline pattern. A 17% decline would take the S&P500 down to 5784 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – February 4 2026

As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Transportation Index Selling

On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver/S&P500: 1980 2011 2026

S&P500 and silver data covering January1980, April 2011 and January 2026 were reviewed for consistent patterns. After the peak in 1980 and 2011 the S&P550 fell between 16.9% and 17%. The parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. A decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 is expected and could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. During this decline, profits from the peak in metals should move into stocks. The S&P500 would then move higher for the remainder of 2026. In addition to this the current VIX chart structure is similar to 2011 providing a leading indicator for a decline in the S&P500.

Data points:
On January 18, 1980 silver hit a record close of 49.45 with the S&P500 closing at 111.07.
On April 28, 2011 silver hit a record close of 48.41 with the S&P500 closing at 1360.48.
On January 29, 2026 silver hit a record high of 115.79 with the S&P500 closing at 6969.01

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10 Year Note Short Positions

On January 5, 2026 it was noted that Non-Commercial Trader short positions were significant. Rates were also expected to fall in 2026. The Fed started dropping rates on September 18, 2024.  On December 10, 2025 the target rate was dropped to 3.75%. The 10Yr Note rate is currently in a holding pattern as it rides a 19.3 degree support line shown in the following 2026 10Yr chart. Rates are still expected to fall. The rate of change will depend on an unexpected financial event, the bond market, or Federal Reserve.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Swiss Franc vs Gold

Research indicates non-commercial futures trader contract positions for Swiss Francs inherently provides a leading indicator for gold. The following charts show a relationship between Swiss France contracts and gold going back to 2018. The most recent signal on January 27, 2026 indicates gold is expected to continue moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – January 28 2026

As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.

Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dollar/Gold: Weak Dollar 2017 vs 2025

Between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 the Dollar declined 9.4% while gold rose 64.70%. When you compare this to the previous Trump administration where the Dollar declined 10.41% and gold rose 13.11%, it is not about the price of gold. It is about the value of the Dollar. Steve Mnuchin (Investment Banker) was the Treasury Secretary between February 2017 and January 2021. Scott Bessent (hedge fund manager) was appointed in January 2025. Based on their actions both Treasury Secretaries prefer a weak Dollar policy regardless of who is President. It is apparent they were looking for an immediate 10% decline in the Dollar during the first year of their appointment. After the 2017 Dollar decline, it retraced up to the 103.0 range before dropping once again in 2020.

As of January 20, 2026, Commitment of Traders futures data patterns and calculations indicated Gold, Silver, S&P500, and 30 year treasury bond (relative to the Dollar) were in a position similar to where they were on December 18, 2007. Based on this data, it appears gold and silver still have some room to move higher. As additional data is provided adjustments may be needed.

Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Janet Yellen – Feb 3, 2014 – Feb 3, 2018
Strong Dollar policy
Treasury Secretary: Steven Mnuchin, Investment Banker
(February 13, 2017 – January 20, 2021)
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 2, 2017 – December 29, 2017
1151.46 to 1302.45 = 13.113% increase
USD – January 2, 2017 – December 31, 2017
102.83 to 92.12 = 10.41% decrease

Trump Administration
Fed Chair: Jerome Powell – Feb 5, 2018 –
Treasury Secretary: Scott Bessent, Hedge Fund Manager
(January 28, 2025…… )
Weak Dollar policy
Gold – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
2624.38 to 4322.61 = 64.70% increase
USD – January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
108.48 to 98.28 = 9.4% decrease

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: CBOE Options Early Warning

On January 22, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 2 day moving average provided an early warning for a potential market decline. A similar event occurred on January 6, 2025. A second signal occurred on January 21, 2025. This was followed by an S&P500 decline that ended during the week of April 7, 2025. During this decline, Market Maker’s moved in to accumulate inventory for another move to higher levels. This was during the April 2025 lows when extremely large seven figure block trades crossed the tape in big tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, MSFT, and NVDA. Recently, between October 2025 and January 2026, similar large trades occurred as Market Maker’s distributed their inventory to bullish investment managers, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – January 21 2026

As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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S&P500: SPY RSI Decline

While Institutional Money Managers are bullish Market Maker’s try to hide their actions using algorithms in high frequency trading systems. Their actions are very subtle, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formula reveals their plans in the SPY. Put in the right context, the RSI can show their plans for a decline. The following charts provide an illustration of what occurred in 2022 and 2024 – 2025. The current process started in August 2025 and appears it will continue until markets move lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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VIX: 2011 Pattern

On December 21, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. If retail investors continued on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.

During the first half of January 2026 the VIX developed a 44.05 degree angle. This is the same angle that was developed in July 2011. It is very unusual and would indicate a market decline is very close.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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SP500: Bitcoin vs S&P500

Bitcoin continues to develop a large structure similar to the 1971 – 1985 Engrbytrade™ Euro model. Since 2020 the S&P500 moved lower during prolonged Bitcoin declines. The exception was 2021. At this point the S&P500 should decline in 2026. This is based on the Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength and Commodity Channel index positions indicating a change in direction is expected. After this decline Bitcoin should move up to its previous highs before starting another decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Transportation Index Decline

The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: 2011 vs 2025 SLV Fibonacci Points

On December 24, 2023 it was noted how money from numerous bailouts and rescue packages were approved by Congress between 2020 and 2022. At the time a silver chart structure was developing within an ascending triangle that was on course to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. A quick move up in silver during 2024 was expected. In 2024 precious metals prices started to move higher and are now hitting another peak similar to 2011. The following charts provide some perspective on the current position of SLV compared to 2011.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10 Year Note Short Positions

On July 19, 2025 it was noted that Non-Commercial Traders were holding short positions on a level similar to that of October 2, 2018. The level of their holdings is still significant and rates are expected to fall significantly in 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

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NASDAQ100: Stocks above 200 Day Moving Average

Wall street media outlets never disappoint when it comes to putting a positive spin on just about every headline in the news cycle. What they do not discuss are indicators such as the following. The NASDAQ 100 Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average. Based on previous readings, when this percentage drops and stays below the 50% level, a market decline is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: TLT Falling Wedge

On November 26, 2025 it was noted that up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. Between mid-October and the end of November very few of these blocks crossed the tape. During the last half of December several large blocks appeared as a falling wedge pattern developed. Daily volume also declined during this time. This wedge appeared just in time for the announcement of a new Fed Chairman.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver/S&P500: Silver Peak – Market Decline

In 1980 silver hit its peak on January 18, 1980 with a close of 49.45. The S&P500 started a 16.69% decline 18 trading days after this peak in silver. The 1980 stock market decline was attributed to an early recession.

In 2011 silver hit a peak on April 29, 2011 with a close of 47.95. The S&P500 started a 17.76% decline 68 trading days from the peak in silver. The August 2011 stock market decline was due to Standard & Poor’s downgrading America’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.

Once again silver is reaching new parabolic highs with the CME raising margin rates. When silver peaks, a decline in the range of 17 percent for the S&P500 would be expected. As of today it would come close to filling the gap created on May 12, 2025 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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