Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow: September – October 2022

On October 19, 2023 it was noted that the Dow structure was in a similar position to where it was on March 22, 2023. Additional research revealed the September 1, 2023 to October 26, 2023 Dow structure is very similar to its structure that was developed between September 1, 2023 and October 12, 2022. Large block trades are also in a pattern that is similar to what occurred between September 26, 2022 and October 12, 2022. A move up to 35,078 +/- 1% is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Futures Trading Data

The current 2020-2023 gold chart structure shown below is what would typically be called a triple top formation. This by itself does not necessarily confirm that a decline is expected. The underlying futures trading data behind this structure is important. In September 2021 and October 2023 Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations show that traders have been positioning their trades with the expectation of a long term decline. Similar moves occurred in 2012, and 1994-1995 as identified by arrows in the charts below.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: March 2023 vs October 2023

A review of large block trading patterns, comparable fear and greed index readings and engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicates the current Dow and S&P500 chart structures are in a similar position to where they were on March 22, 2023. This update indicates a move up to 35,078 +/- 1% on the Dow and 4522 +/-1% on the S&P500 are expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Market Decline Structure Setup Update

On October 12, 2023, it was noted that a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 is similar to what occurred in 2018. A detailed review of the 1973 vs 2023 19 point chart posted on September 29, 2023 against the charts shown below revealed that Market Makers shifted away from the 1973 model to a 2018 chart structure starting in mid-March 2023, just  prior to the start of interest rates moving higher in the 2nd quarter of 2023. A move up to 34,598 +/- 1% by October 18, 2023 is expected before starting a sharp decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Market Decline Structure Setup

On October 10, 2023 it was noted that the 2018 and 2023 10-Yr interest rate charts had similar underlying characteristics based on 10-Yr Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions. The following 2023 Dow chart also illustrates a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 that is similar to what occurred in 2018.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates/S&P500: Stock Market Decline Setup

On October 5, 2018 the 10-Yr note interest rate closed within range of the 127.20% Fibonacci value in the first chart structure shown below before turning and starting a decline. On October 5, 2023 the 10-Yr note interest rate closed above the 127.20% Fibonacci value in the second chart structure shown below. The two charts carry a similar underlying characteristic based on 10-Yr Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions shown in the third chart below. This type of interest rate positioning by futures traders indicates a quick move down (minimum of 5%) in the S&P500 is expected.

Similar readings were received in the 10-Yr Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions on June 29, 2004 and April 13, 2010. After June 29, 2004 the S&P500 dropped 6.2%. After April 13, 2010 the S&P500 moved sideways until May 4, 2010 when a “flash crash” occurred leading to a 5.6% decline in May 2010.

As of October 7, 2023, the S&P500 started a quick consolidation phase prior to moving higher. This could change quickly with a sharp decline, which appears to be what is expected by bond traders. Additional trading data will be needed to determine a change of direction.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Consolidation Before Moving Higher

There is a 30% chance the Dow will decline to 32,873 along with the S&P500 dropping to 4216 for a consolidation before markets move higher. Daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculations, along with standard technical indicators such as the NYSE Market Thrust, CBOE Put/Call Ratio, and CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio indicate a move up is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Falling Wedge Pattern

The following one hour charts illustrate how a falling wedge pattern aligns with the Fear & Greed Index. On March 13, 2023 the index hit 20. At the close of October 3, 2023 the index was 17. In addition to this index, it was observed that there was a substantial increase in the size of larger block trades between September 21, 2023 and September 29, 2023 as compared to March 10, 2023 through March 16, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Markets Readjust

On September 26, 2023 it was noted that the S&P500 was expected to move down to the lower trend line of its accumulation channel shown below. Between September 21 and September 29, 2023 extremely large block trades were observed crossing the tape. Today the S&P500 pierced its lower trend line while the Fear & Greed Index dropped below 20 during the first half of the trading day. Market Makers should continue accumulating additional inventory as markets readjust for another move upward.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 1973 vs 2023 19 Point Chart

The Dow is currently expected to move higher based on changes in U.S. Dollar future positions and recent changes in relative value of the Euro and Silver. The U.S. Dollar and 10-Yr Note are expected to move lower in 2023.

The following charts provide a comparison of 1973 to 2023 turning points. As of September 29, 2023 the Dow is estimated to be in a similar position to where it was on August 22, 1973.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: Relative Value vs Dollar

On September 24, 2023 it was noted that the average relative value of silver derivatives moved into a position of being “Extremely Undervalued”. This is also true for the Euro. The following chart is a representative average relative value of the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar. The current position of this relative value provides an expectation that the Euro will change direction and move higher over the next several months. This aligns with the Dollar’s abrupt change in direction noted on September 26, 2023.

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US Dollar: Abrupt Change

Weekly engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations over the last two weeks indicates there has been an abrupt change in futures trader positions of U.S Dollars that is similar to what occurred in November 2010. The following charts provide some perspective on what is expected over the next several months. This change also aligns with future expectations of silver moving higher, as noted on September 24, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Accumulation Channel

In 2022 the Fear and Greed Index dropped below 20 between September 28, 2022 and October 11, 2022. In 2023 it dropped below 20 on March 15, 2023. During each time period, extremely large block trades were observed crossing the tape. As of 5:30 AM ET today the Fear & Greed Index was 34 and it is expected to decline while the S&P500 moves down to the lower trend line of its accumulation channel shown below. This will provide Market Makers with the opportunity to accumulate additional inventory using extremely large block trades, and then move prices back up to fill the August 1, 2023 – August 2, 2023 gap.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: 2023 Relative Value

On July 24, 2023 it was noted that British Pound Commercial Futures Trader expectations would impact the price of silver. Since that time the average relative value of silver derivatives have moved into a position of being “Extremely Undervalued”.  The following chart provides a representative average relative value of silver derivatives vs. the U.S. Dollar. Calculations are adjusted as the average trend line changes. The current position of this relative value provides an expectation that silver should move higher over the next several months.

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S&P500: 2007 Descending Triangle Structure

Between June 26, 2023 and September 21, 2023 market makers created a descending triangle structure similar to what was developed during the last half of 2007. A decline below the triangle support line is expected to occur. In this situation futures traders would then move prices upward at a later date to fill the futures gap created between August 1, 2023 and August 2, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.

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Dow: Price to Volume Positioning 9/15/23

On September 15, 2023 daily Engrbytrade™ price to volume positioning calculations indicated the Dow is expected to make a brief move up to 35,630. This move is on a smaller scale compared to calculations for what occurred between March 17, 2023 and May 1, 2023. It also appears to be a coordinated effort in support of filling the S&P500 August 1 – 2, 2023 gap.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

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Dow: Mini Dow Futures Final Signal

On September 9, 2023 it was noted that a 3rd signal of repetitive computer program selling had not appeared within a 4 trading day window of the September 8, 2023 E-Mini Dow futures signal. On September 14, 2023, 4 trading days after the E-Mini Dow futures signal on September 8, 2023, a process of repetitive computer program selling was observed. This appears to have completed the topping process, which is similar to what occurred between late 2021 and early 2022, as shown in the chart below.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

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Dow: 1987 vs 2023 Update

On August 19, 2023 actual Fibonacci percentages were calculated for a comparison between 1987 and 2023. As of September 8, 2023, the Dow continues to stay within its comparative range from 1987. Very large block trades observed between late August 2023 and early September 2023 appear to be similar in nature to what was observed in October 2022. At this point the Dow is expected to continue moving higher.

 

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Dow: Mini Dow Futures 3rd Signal

On September 6, 2023 it was noted that two out of three Mini Dow futures signals were received. It was also observed that an indication of repetitive computer program selling appeared within a four day window of each of the first two Mini Dow futures signals.

On September 8, 2023 a 3rd Mini Dow futures signal was received indicating the topping process is near completion. At this point, repetitive computer program selling has not appeared within a 4 day window, as it did with the first two signals. The following charts show a comparison between the February 2023 to September 2023 structure and the August 2021 to January 2022 structure.  

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

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