Intermarket structural analysis research
Over the last three trading days daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate Market Makers have been distributing (selling) very large blocks of stock as the Dow moves higher. This distribution process is expected to continue until the VIX gap (created on August 22, 2022) has been filled. This means the VIX will need to drop below 21.27 before moving higher. The Dow futures gap created on 8/21/22 was filled on November 10, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Watching underlying big block trades, daily calculations and technical indicators for a recurring pattern.
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A 15-minute Dow futures chart structure was constructed between 4:00 a.m. on October 28, 2022 through 8:00 a.m. on November 8, 2022 that has similar structural characteristics to what was built between 9:00 a.m. on August 16, 2022 and 2:45 p.m. on August 17, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline is imminent.
A drop below 21.67 is expected to complete filling the gap created on August 22, 2022. An intraday move down to the red trend line shown in the chart below is also needed before moving significantly higher as it did during September – October 2008.
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Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield is peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018.
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One example of market structures created and implemented during the course of predetermined time frames. It appears a significant decline is coming and 2023 will not be a good year based on the following weekly charts.
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Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate silver traders are in a position similar to where they were on November 1, 2018. Silver is expected to trend higher over the next 12 months with a target range of $30.85 (+/- 5%).
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Based on the declines in January and June 2022, preliminary futures structural calculations indicate the Dow will reach 25,913 and the S&P 500 will reach 3,253 by December 8, 2022.
The Dow 15-minute chart is currently repeating the December 30, 2021 to January 4, 2022 structure. Waiting for the Federal Reserve’s announcement and initial jobless claims report this week to initiate a decline.
As noted on October 21, 2022 the Dow moved within a primary target range of 32,210 (+/- 1 %) on October 27, 2022. It also hit a secondary target range of 33,043 (+/-1%) with a high of 33,000 in the futures on October 28, 2022. A brief move up to 33,686 in the Dow futures 15-minute chart is expected to close the gap created on August 21, 2022. This move would be similar to the Dow 15-minute futures structure developed between December 30, 2021 and January 5, 2022 before a meaningful decline starts.
Over the last six trading days Dow futures have finished with a positive close. Similar six day positive close rallies occurred between December 21, 2021 to December 29, 2021, and May 23, 2022 to May 30, 2022. During all three rallies, it was observed that a significant number of very large blocks were traded. Preliminary estimates indicate that over the next 16 to 17 trading days the Dow will drop back down to 26,400 following the lower trend line shown above.
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The gap created in the Dow futures chart on September 13, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. has been filled.
Noting that silver is in an undervalued position, the following charts indicate the 2008 and 2022 structures are similar.
July – October 2022
October – December 2008
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As the U.S. Dollar continues to move higher, engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations show silver is currently in an undervalued position similar to where it was in late October 2008.
Based on historical data, Market Maker trading activity, structural calculations and rate of speed, there is a high probability the Dow will peak on Thursday, October 27, 2022 (+/-1 trading day) before starting a sharp decline in November 2022.
As of October 24, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ Dow and structural calculations indicate Market Makers have been accelerating their actions to position for a sharp decline, just as they did between September 1, 2022 and September 12, 2022. It is expected that the move upward will be deferred.
Structural calculations indicate algorithms are in the process of repeating the late September to early October 2021 chart structure as shown in the charts below. Daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirm this development with updates that include a primary target of 32,210 (+/- 1%) and secondary target of 33,043 (+/- 1%). This rally will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to distribute very large blocks of stock as markets move higher.
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Engrbytrade structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving up to 31,577 (+/-1%) in the futures market before starting a decline. Trend lines on the chart shown above are based on 30-minute futures chart structures and calculation reviews from October-November 2021 and March 2022. Note that large intraday swings should continue.
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As the Dow continues to move higher, trading should be monitored for an increase in very large block trades during the remaining trading days of October and first week of November. Depending on the trade size and distribution pattern from Market Maker activities, it could be followed by a significant decline that would be similar in size to the decline of 2022. Accumulation and distribution patterns by Specialists (currently known as Designated Market Makers) are discussed in Richard Ney’s books shown in the Engrbytrade reference section.
The Dow continues to develop a 15-minute futures chart structure similar to that of March 1, 2022 to March 18, 2022. Based on the October 4, 2022 to October 18, 2022 15-minute chart structure the Dow is expected to reach 31,577 (+/-1%) in the futures market before starting a decline.
Structural calculations indicate overnight adjustments have been made in futures market computer trading algorithms resulting in a change where the Dow is expected to reach a high of 31,577 (+/- 1%) before declining. Note that volatility will continue to increase during the last quarter of 2022 with frequent adjustments.
The Dow continues to follow its 2008 template, as shown in the daily charts below. Based on daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and structural development, a move up to 31,044 (+/-1%) in the futures market by November 4, 2022 is expected before moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
October 2 – 14, 2008 October 4 – 14, 2022
Weekly engrbytrade™ VIX calculations indicate futures traders are making preparations for a stock market decline. The VIX is also in the process of developing an inverse version of the 15-minute futures chart structure noted on October 14, 2022. This structural development indicates that when markets start to decline the potential exists for a move down into December 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow continues to develop a 15-minute futures chart structure similar to that of March 1, 2022 to March 16, 2022. Based on the October 4, 2022 to October 14, 2022 15-minute chart structure rate of acceleration, the Dow is expected to reach 31,470 (+/-1%) by October 24, 2022 before starting a decline.
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the decline is incomplete. On October 13, 2022 the Dow completed a 2.8% move up on volume of less than 500 million. Based on retail investor sentiment this move appears to be similar to what occurred on October 13, 2008.