Engrbytrade Dow futures structural calculations indicate the decline is expected to continue. Using its current rate of acceleration a projected target of 31,071 (+/- 1%) is expected by March 21, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Economy: Earnings Recession Continues
Dow/S&P500: 2021 vs 2023
Between October 19, 2021 and November 22, 2021 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculation results were found to be similar to results produced between January 19, 2023 and March 6, 2023. This comparison indicates the Dow January 2023 to March 2023 structure is expected to be a prelude for a decline over the next several months. It would also align with the expectation of a decline discussed on February 25, 2023. Similarities were also found for the S&P500 between October 20, 2021 to November 19, 2021 and January 17, 2023 to February 28, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Jerome Powell Testimony
Just in time for a market decline. Timing is everything.
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Wednesday March 8 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
Economy: Credit Suisse
A Massive Bank Run Threatens to Crash a Major Bank as They Desperately Try to Avoid Insolvency
Dow: Brief Rally
The 1-hour Dow futures chart is currently forming a falling wedge pattern that is similar to what developed between August 22, 2022 and August 24, 2022. Based on research from February 28, 2023, a brief rally is expected prior to a sharp decline similar to what occurred after August 26, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: February 28 Gap
Be aware that a small gap appeared at the market open on February 28, 2023. This gap is expected to be filled with a move above 32,814 on the NYSE and 32,981 in the 15-minute futures chart, before the Dow moves to lower levels.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: March 2023 Decline
Daily intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the Dow and S&P500 are expected to continue to decline in March 2023 based on comparable calculation results from February 2, 2022 and August 24, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: 1966 – 1973
Market Makers have successfully managed to develop Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 that are similar to chart structures between 1966 and 1973. The end result is also expected to be similar to 1974. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1973 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023. Preliminary estimates indicate the end result would be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow and below 2000 for the S&P500.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Descending Triangle
The chart below is a representation of the current Dow futures chart structure with a descending triangle pattern that typically precedes a decline. If this structure continues to develop, a move up to its upper trend line is possible before dropping through the lower horizontal line and continuing with a decline described on February 22, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 2008 vs 2023 Structures
In the charts below it has been observed that structures between November 1, 2022 and February 22, 2023 appear to be similar to what was developed between July 11, 2008 and September 5, 2008. Although, this comparison alone does not confirm a decline is expected, it does provide a framework to conduct structural calculations showing an upcoming decline to 25,777. This would be a 22.2% decline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Fed Meeting Minutes
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate market movements are determined prior to the issuance of Fed Meeting Minutes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Energy Related Commodities
In the future energy related commodities will become very expensive.
Gold/Silver: Long Term Value vs Dollar
A description of what would occur over the long term with gold and silver was provided on January 15, 2023. The following charts were developed to provide nominal values with some perspective on that discussion. There are times, such as October-November 2008 and September 2022, when metal values diverge away from the U.S. Dollar’s relative value resulting in an undervalued situation for metals. As noted on January 15, 2023, the next peak in gold and silver is expected to occur between November 2024 and May 2025. During that time, an overvalued situation for the metals should occur.
Dow: 24 Trading Days
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations from February 16, 2023 confirm the Dow is in a similar structural position compared to where it was on February 2, 2022 and August 24, 2022. A decline is expected during the next 24 trading days.
Economy: Stock Market Decline in 2023
Intensifying War, Enormous Upside for Gold – Charles Nenner
- Inflation continues to move higher
- Fed Funds rate continues to move up to 5 ½ to 6%
- Market declines 38% in 2023 (starting in March)
- 2027 crash of all crashes (1929 situation)
- Gold in a trading range and declines until March. A major move up starts in May
S&P500: Descending Broadening Wedge
The S&P500 1-hour chart is in the process of developing a descending broadening wedge. Based on this structure the potential exists for a brief move up to fill a gap between 4219-4228 that was created on August 21, 2022. Regardless of whether this move occurs, a meaningful decline down to its lower trend line on a daily chart is still expected.
Dow/NASDAQ: Dow Gap Below 34,617 Filled
Around 8:30 a.m. EST today the 5-minute Dow futures chart gap below 34,617, that was created at 2:00 p.m. on December 14, 2022, has been filled. The need to fill this gap was noted on January 28, 2023. One gap in the NASDAQ remains, as described on February 7, 2023.
Dow: Dow Transport Review
The Dow Jones Transportation Average charts shown below provide some insight into significant trading activities prior to a decline. In the last quarter of 2021, when a large long tail candlestick appeared on November 2, 2021, it was observed that a significant number of very large block trades were crossing the tape around that period of time. This trading activity is also similar to what occurred as a steady stream of very large blocks appeared during late January 2023 and early February 2023 when a long tail candlestick appeared on February 2, 2023. In the past, smaller versions of long tail candlesticks appeared on May 19, 2008 and September 19, 2008 prior to a sharp decline in late 2008.
Based on the Dow Transport Average index timelines discussed above, S&P500 and NASDAQ descending triangles noted on February 9, 2023, very large block trades crossing the tape during periods when long tail candlesticks appear, plus “technical issues” for trades on over 200 stocks during the morning session on January 24, 2023, it appears that Market Makers are setting up a decline that could last well into 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Mild Recession or Default
Economy: Fighting The Fed
S&P500/NASDAQ: Descending Triangle
Note that the S&P500 and NASDAQ 15-minute charts are in the process of forming a descending triangle. A decline is expected.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intraday Gaps
The Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ are still expected to move higher. Algorithms are currently in the process of filling intraday gaps created during a volatile trading period after Jerome Powell’s speech on February 7, 2023.
S&P500: Move To 4297
The S&P500 is still on track to move above 4228 and fill its August 19-21 futures gap. On a relative scale, calculations indicate algorithms developed the January 19, 2023 to February 7, 2023 1-hour futures chart structure (with adjustments as needed) based on characteristics from the July 14, 2022 to August 10, 2022 1-hour futures chart. Using these similarities, calculations indicate a move up to 4297 (+/- 1%) is expected before making a significant move to lower levels.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Nasdaq: Key Words
As the Dow and S&P500 approach their structural peaks, the Nasdaq is also included in this group and is expected to fill a gap created in the 1-hour futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022 with a move above 13,247. Algorithms programmed with key words may trigger a sharp move upward and provide the means to fill gaps in the S&P500 and Nasdaq during, or after, Jerome Powell’s speech at 12:40 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 7, 2023. This would align with a move of 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days) after January 30, 2023 noted on February 1, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
