3 Weeks ago…Mild recession outlook
3 Days ago…Preparing for default
Economy: Fighting The Fed
S&P500/NASDAQ: Descending Triangle
Note that the S&P500 and NASDAQ 15-minute charts are in the process of forming a descending triangle. A decline is expected.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intraday Gaps
The Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ are still expected to move higher. Algorithms are currently in the process of filling intraday gaps created during a volatile trading period after Jerome Powell’s speech on February 7, 2023.
S&P500: Move To 4297
The S&P500 is still on track to move above 4228 and fill its August 19-21 futures gap. On a relative scale, calculations indicate algorithms developed the January 19, 2023 to February 7, 2023 1-hour futures chart structure (with adjustments as needed) based on characteristics from the July 14, 2022 to August 10, 2022 1-hour futures chart. Using these similarities, calculations indicate a move up to 4297 (+/- 1%) is expected before making a significant move to lower levels.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Nasdaq: Key Words
As the Dow and S&P500 approach their structural peaks, the Nasdaq is also included in this group and is expected to fill a gap created in the 1-hour futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022 with a move above 13,247. Algorithms programmed with key words may trigger a sharp move upward and provide the means to fill gaps in the S&P500 and Nasdaq during, or after, Jerome Powell’s speech at 12:40 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 7, 2023. This would align with a move of 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days) after January 30, 2023 noted on February 1, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Earnings Disappointments
S&P500: Falling Wedge
Note that the S&P500 1-hr futures chart is in a falling wedge. Just like it was between January 27, 2023 and January 31, 2023. A move up is expected to fill the gap created between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022 before moving lower.
Dow: Market Decline Imminent
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the Dow is in a peak structural position similar to where it was on August 18, 2022, before losing 18% as it fell into mid October 2022. A market decline is imminent.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
VIX: 2007 – 2008 Structure
On November 15, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirmed the VIX would move below 22 to a lower trend line illustrated on November 11, 2022. This move was completed in late November as the Dow and S&P500 continued to move higher while Market Makers distributed their inventory. Since that time, the VIX has moved below 18 and is expected to decline below 16.44 based on a 1-hour futures gap created on September 7, 2021 that will need to be filled. The structural design of the January 2022 to February 2023 chart shown below is very similar to that of the chart structure created between September 2007 and May 2008. The details needed to create the current 2022 to 2023 chart based on a 2007 to 2088 chart structure indicates a significant amount of planning went into this effort. Additional data will be needed to confirm the probability of a repeat performance of 2008 in 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Continue Moving Higher
The response from stock markets concerning an interest rate increase of 0.25% indicates algorithms are expected to continue moving the S&P500 higher to close a 5-minute futures chart gap created on August 21, 2022. A move up above 4229 in the futures market within 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days), starting on January 30, 2023, is still expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/Nasdaq: Earnings
Economy: Jim Chanos Interview
Dow/S&P500: Algorithms Filling Gaps
Between January 19, 2023 and January 27, 2023 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate algorithms have been positioning the Dow to set up a brief move upward prior to starting a decline. The January 19 – 27, 2023 calculations are similar to results received between December 8, 2021 to December 17, 2021 and August 4, 2022 to August 9, 2022. Prior to conducting a decline in the Dow, algorithms are expected to move the Dow higher and fill a gap that was created in the 5-minute Dow futures chart on December 14, 2022. This would move the Dow above 34,617 in the futures market before a decline would start.
Algorithms are also expected to move the S&P500 above 4229 in the futures market to fill a gap created in the 5-minute futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022.
This move up is calculated to take 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days). A move down is still expected in accordance the January 25, 2023 post.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: S&P500 December 14, 2022 Gap Filled
On December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. the Federal Reserve raised the overnight borrowing rate one-half percent to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. This announcement resulted in a gap of the 1-hour S&P500 and Dow futures charts. The S&P500 gap was filled at the close on January 26, 2023. It appears algorithms are working to fill the December 14, 2022 Dow futures chart gap above 34,482.
Dow: Chart Structure
In addition to the post on January 25, 2023, chart structures with a four day rise, followed by a brief decline and another four day rise have a history of being predecessors to a decline. This includes time frames in the following charts when the Dow declined from October 3, 2018 to December 24, 2018 and December 27, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Inverse Derivative Calcs
Daily engrbytrade™ inverse derivative calculations indicate the Dow and S&P500 are expected to decline. Calculations for the Dow are similar to results from January 4, 2022 and February 9, 2022. Calculations for the S&P500 are similar to results from April 1, 2022 and August 4, 2022. Engrbytrade structural calculations in the futures market indicate the S&P500 is expected to reach 2891 (+/-1%) and the Dow to ultimately reach 27,108 (+/- 1%).
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Take Out October Lows
Dow: December Futures Gap
The Dow 15-minute futures chart gap created on December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. EST still needs to be filled, as noted on December 29, 2022.
Dow: Short ETF Gaps
Note that there are some Dow short ETF products that contain a gap created between January 13, 2023 at 8:00 p.m and January 17, 2023 at 4:15 a.m. The potential exist for the Dow to move up to 34,300 to fill these gaps before moving lower.
Economy/Gold/Silver: Cause and Effect
Inflation: The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind – Hidden Secrets of Money Ep 4
Three economic rescue packages were signed between 1970 and 1971. What followed was a run up in silver prices until the first quarter of 1974. Three economic rescue packages were signed between 2020 and 2022. Based on history, the result will be another run up in gold and silver prices.
Cause:
Economy/Gold/Silver: Impact of Congressional Spending
Effect:
Silver prices could touch a 9-year high in 2023 — with a bigger upside than gold
Gold price backs off on rising dollar, but set for fifth weekly rise
Economy: Facing a Recession
Stock market faces collision of bullish and bearish forces, says Tom McClellan
When taxes, as a percentage of GDP, are greater than 18% a recession follows.
Nasdaq: Similar Retracement Structures
On January 19, 2023 it was observed that trading patterns in the Dow were similar within specific time frames from April 2022 and January 2023. A review of Nasdaq trades on January 20, 2023 revealed a retracement structure over the last three trading days is similar to five trading days between March 29, 2022 and April 4, 2022. The peak on March 29, 2022 occurred prior to the start of its decline going into April 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Algorithms Recalculating
Note that algorithms are recalculating the sequence of events needed to fill the gap created by the Dow and S&P500 this morning. This also includes other derivative products linked to the Dow and S&P500. When this gap is filled, the decline is expected to continue.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Double Bottom Formation
It was observed from additional data that intraday trading patterns have been similar within time frames illustrated in the chart below. Based on this, structural calculations indicate a move down to 28,733 in the futures market is possible with the development of a double bottom reversal formation before moving higher.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
