Engrbytrade Posts

Market Makers are taking advantage of negative news from various media outlets for the purpose of building structures needed to accumulate additional inventory (e.g., stocks) before moving prices significantly higher during the last half of 2019. The following estimates for the Dow are expected over the next two months.

Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Down to 25,300 (+/-2%) by May 23, 2019 (+/-1 day)
2. Up to 26,400 (+/-2%) by June 18, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
3. Down to 24,700 (+/-2%) by July 12, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
4. Up to 27,000 by September 2019 in preparation for moving the Dow to higher levels

Major Commercial Trader’s continue to support a move that will send the Dow Jones Index higher. Based on this, a review of the long-term outlook was warranted using an index model constructed of multiple historical derivative structures that align with the current Dow pricing model. The results revealed a significant move to the upside is expected with the Dow hitting its peak in 2021. This long-term move is not unusual and occurs on a regular basis in multiple markets. There will be pullbacks along the way, but algorithms will continue to run, independent of external forces, until the program is complete in mid-2021. At that point a significant decline is expected to start.

Additional research indicates major commercial traders intervened and initiated a program for the purpose of driving the Dow to higher levels. One short decline in the Dow is expected to occur by May 27, 2019, followed by another before July 17, 2019. Upon completion of the two brief declines, the Dow is expected to start moving to significantly higher levels over the next two years. Based on data received to date, there is a 90% chance this move will occur. A new model will need to be developed to track this move.

Market adjustments, such as Japanese holidays noted below, and the impact of Palladium prices on Nasdaq companies have been incorporated into the following short term projected scenario.
Current Short Term Projected Scenario (Model #2019-3, Rev.1a)
Dow closing price on April 18, 2019: 26,559.54
Dow declines to June 17, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 19,439.23 (+/-1%)

Between April 27, 2019 and May 6, 2019, Japanese markets will be closed for a series of national holidays. Indications point to a peak in the Nikkei on April 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day) followed by a long decline going into January 2020. This decline is expected to run in tandem with a drop in the Dow Jones Index.

Structures for a turn by April 10, 2019 have been built and a move to lower levels is still expected. Calculations indicate that plans are in place for the Dow to continue moving sideways going into options expiration week. Based on Market Maker actions up to this point a decline is expected to start by April 17, 2019. Vix calculations confirm a decline is planned for April, May, and June 2019.

The current Dow structure indicates Market Makers are planning to continue with a series of declines followed by short rallies. The next move down is expected to touch a low in the Dow of 19,184.38 (+/-1%) by May 2, 2019 (+/-1 day) and then move up to 21,915.08 (+/-1%) by May 30, 2019 (+/-1 day) before moving lower again.
(Disclaimer)

Based on the Current Projected Scenario Model noted on March 3, 2019 and a separate independent model, the Dow is expected to continue its decline going into March 22, 2019. At that point Market Makers have two choices. The first choice would push the Dow back up to 26,800 and then continue its decline to 16,000. The second would provide a direct decline to the 16,000 range without a rally. Depending on Market Makers near term profit motives, the direction they take will determine if both independent models are revised.

The following projection is based on Market Maker activities up to February 25, 2019. A significant decline is expected this year, but the Exchange Stabilization Fund could intervene again and support the stock market, as they did in late December 2018. If they do intervene, a revision to the Model shown below will be required.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-3, Rev.0)
Dow closing price on February 25, 2019: 26,091.95
1. Dow declines to June 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 13,177.60 (+/-1%)
2. Dow moves up to August 16, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 16,800.00 (+/- 1%)
3. Dow declines to November 19, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 10,791.00 (+/- 1%)

A significant decline has been scheduled for 2019 and the majority of investors will be shocked when it occurs. From the Dow’s pivot point on February 25, 2019, initial calculations indicate the Dow is expected to decline to the 13,500 range by mid-May 2019. Additional work is needed to construct a model reflecting this move. While in the process of conducting this decline, Market Makers will not hesitate to identify numerous reasons why the markets declined so rapidly, just as they have done in the past.

On Friday, the Dow hit 25,883.25 and is within 1% of the current projected scenario model closing price of 25,669.61 for February 19, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). A separate calculation indicates a retracement of 80% (+/- 3%) is expected for the Dow’s decline between October 3, 2018 and December 26, 2018. As of Friday the Dow has retraced 79.6% from the low in December. The Dow is still expected to start moving lower next week.

Market Markets are currently focused on their timeline going into options expiration. The double top formation indicates a delay to setup a move to the downside starting mid-month. This aligns with the original projection on February 2, 2019 that a peak would occur on February 19, 2019 (+/- 1 day). The latest model shown below provides an adjustment based on Market Makers actions.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-2, Rev. 1)
Dow closing price on February 14, 2019: 25,543.24
1. Dow moves up to February 19, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 25,669.61 (+/-1%)
2. Dow moves down to June 20, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 16,244.80 (+/- 1%)

Market Makers have accelerated their timeline with a run up in the Dow to hit a high of 25,427.32 on February 5, 2019. This high point is within 6 points of the projected close noted on February 2, 2019 and it provides the potential energy needed for a market decline to start this week.

Additional research indicates the Dow is expected to turn on February 19th (+/- 1 day) as shown below in the latest model. This model provides notional values and adjustments will be provided, if needed.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-2, Rev. 0)
Dow closing price on February 1, 2019: 25,063.89
1. Dow moves up to February 19, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 25,422.00 (+/-1%)
2. Dow moves down to June 18, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 16,244.80 (+/- 1%)

Based on the current market structure, it seems Market Makers are taking Trump at his word to follow through with another Government shutdown in mid-February. Historical data and model adjustments show the Dow is expected to turn down after February 18, 2018. This decline will be much worse than what was originally expected and could last for several months. Preliminary indications show the Dow reaching the 13,000 range. Ray Dalio explains this deleveraging process in “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. See Ray Dalio’s explanation: Current market cycle is similar to the late 1930’s.

Expect to see a lower low than 12/26/18.
Remember — the Saudi’s do not plan to issue their Aramco IPO until early 2021.

The Dow is completing a structure that has been used by Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) for decades.  Their next step will move the Dow to lower levels.  The initial move is expected to hit 20,819 (+/-1%) by February 4, 2019 (+/-1 day).  Research indicates there is a high probability that an additional move below this level will take place and would take the Dow down to a level of 16,349 (+/-1%) by February 19, 2019 (+/-1 day).   

On Thursday, January 17, 2019 the Dow closed above its 50% retracement point between a high of 26,789.08 on October 3, 2018 and a low of 21,712.53 on December 26, 2018.  This move supersedes Model @2019-1, Rev. 0 and indicates Market Makers are accelerating their schedule to prepare a meaningful decline that could start as early as next week. 

Based on today’s high of 24,288.61 and a closing price of 24,207.16, adjustments were incorporated with the expectation of a decline to January 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day) and a projected close of 22,942.19 (+/-1%).