Engrbytrade Posts

Market Makers have accelerated their timeline with a run up in the Dow to hit a high of 25,427.32 on February 5, 2019. This high point is within 6 points of the projected close noted on February 2, 2019 and it provides the potential energy needed for a market decline to start this week.

Additional research indicates the Dow is expected to turn on February 19th (+/- 1 day) as shown below in the latest model. This model provides notional values and adjustments will be provided, if needed.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-2, Rev. 0)
Dow closing price on February 1, 2019: 25,063.89
1. Dow moves up to February 19, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 25,422.00 (+/-1%)
2. Dow moves down to June 18, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 16,244.80 (+/- 1%)

Based on the current market structure, it seems Market Makers are taking Trump at his word to follow through with another Government shutdown in mid-February. Historical data and model adjustments show the Dow is expected to turn down after February 18, 2018. This decline will be much worse than what was originally expected and could last for several months. Preliminary indications show the Dow reaching the 13,000 range. Ray Dalio explains this deleveraging process in “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. See Ray Dalio’s explanation: Current market cycle is similar to the late 1930’s.

Expect to see a lower low than 12/26/18.
Remember — the Saudi’s do not plan to issue their Aramco IPO until early 2021.

The Dow is completing a structure that has been used by Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) for decades.  Their next step will move the Dow to lower levels.  The initial move is expected to hit 20,819 (+/-1%) by February 4, 2019 (+/-1 day).  Research indicates there is a high probability that an additional move below this level will take place and would take the Dow down to a level of 16,349 (+/-1%) by February 19, 2019 (+/-1 day).   

On Thursday, January 17, 2019 the Dow closed above its 50% retracement point between a high of 26,789.08 on October 3, 2018 and a low of 21,712.53 on December 26, 2018.  This move supersedes Model @2019-1, Rev. 0 and indicates Market Makers are accelerating their schedule to prepare a meaningful decline that could start as early as next week. 

Based on today’s high of 24,288.61 and a closing price of 24,207.16, adjustments were incorporated with the expectation of a decline to January 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day) and a projected close of 22,942.19 (+/-1%).

The Dow is expected to travel in a narrow range during the first quarter of 2019.  The following model provides notional values expected during this period.  Adjustments will be provided, as needed.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-1, Rev. 0)
January 15, 2019
Dow closing price: 24,065.59
1. Dow declines to January 18, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 23,091.13 (+/-1%)
2. Dow moves up to February 4, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 23,904.86 (+/- 1%)
3. Dow declines to February 15, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 22,348 (+/-1%)