Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow: First Week of May

Algorithms appear to be repeating the first week of May 2024. Between May 29, 2024 and June 5, 2024, a series of seven figure block trades crossed the tape at the close. This is very similar to what occurred during the last two weeks of April 2024. It is also similar to what occurred in the futures market between December 1, 2021 and December 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to continue moving higher, as it did in May 2024 until Market Makers start to move very large block trades again.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Trend Upward

On May 26, 2024 it was noted that gold’s relative value against the U.S. Dollar was in a position similar to where it was on May 4, 2010. In addition to this, daily Engrbytrade™ structural calculations show gold is in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. A pullback is possible, but the trend upward is expected to remain intact in 2024.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Brief Move Upward

The move on Friday, May 31, 2024 was a culmination of the following factors:

  • 7 figure block trades crossing the tape on 5/29, 5/30/, and 5/31/2024
  • The Fear and Greed Index being in a position similar to where it was on January 19, 2023.
  • No Dow or S&P500 futures gaps in their 5-min charts above the close on 5/31/24
  • One small gap remains in the NASDAQ futures 5-min chart on 5/28/24 above 18,942.

A brief move upward is expected before a decline is initiated.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Block Trades

The Dow changed direction three times between March 2024 and May 2024, as shown below. Groups of very large, seven figure block trades were observed during each change in direction. In the sample group of block trades under observation, two large cap tech stocks stood out. Since this sample group was relatively small, there may be other companies that fit this profile. Additional work will be needed to reveal any consistent patterns.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Transportation Index Lag

The Dow Jones Transportation Index typically moves with the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. There have been periods in the past when the Transportation Index lagged behind other indices, ultimately resulting in a decline of major stock indices. The most recent lag period occurred between October 2019 and January 2020 prior to a significant decline going into March 2020. The charts below currently show a significant Transportation Index lag relative to the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. A decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Big Short 2.0

The following describes a prelude to The Big Short 2.0. Video quality is problematic, but the audio is good. Fraud and corruption are expected to appear this summer.

Are $Trillions Of New Loans About To Be Pumped Into The Housing Market? | Melody Wright

0:00 – Less Home Equity Than Estimated
4:33 – Role of The GSEs
9:23 – Government Holds 85% Of Mortgages Now
13:16 – Does The Market Need More Home Equity Loans?
19:35 – What Are The Biggest Risks Here?
24:12 – Is This A Bad Idea?
34:48 – Is This Setting Up The Big Short 2.0?
41:09 – Melody’s Latest Housing Market Update

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S&P500/Silver: 1973 Structures

On April 17, 2024, a pull back within silver’s ascending triangle was expected. Silver did pull back into May and then continued to move higher. This move is consistent with the 1971 – 1973 silver structure shown below. As silver started to move higher in 1973, the S&P hit its peak on January 11, 1973 and started a decline the following day.  The current 2024 structures are expected to continue on a path that is similar to the 1973 structures.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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1971 – 1973

2021 – 2024

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Interest Rates: Year 2000

There are two key indications that a repeat of the year 2000 is possible. The first indication is an interest rate reversion angle shown in the following 2020 to 2024 Federal Reserve chart. This angle is similar to what occurred between April 2000 and December 2000. Previous inversions have impacted stock markets to varying degrees.

Another indication is the Buffett Indicator: US Stock Market Value to GDP. This indicator currently suggests the U.S. stock market is strongly overvalued.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 8.92 Degrees

Additional research shows Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculation charts reflect patterns identified in the following Dow charts. The 2024 angle of support is 8.92 degrees during periods of Exchange Insider distributions. A pattern similar to this occurred during mid-1972 and late 1973 to early 1974 using a support angle of 15.39 degrees. It also occurred between March 2007 and August 2007 with a support angle of 20.03 degrees. Large quantities of stock were distributed during this time frame.

The Stock Exchange abets its specialists’ merchandising strategies by training investors to address their attention to business statistics, economic data, and other concepts that have but limited relevance for investment purposes.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 85

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Promises of Technology

There is no shortage of endless promises of new technology from electric car manufactures. The current descending triangle chart timeline for Tesla is similar to Apple and Intel in 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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2024 Tesla model 3 commercial

2008 Apple commercial

2008 Intel commercial

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S&P500: 2019 Trade Pattern

Engrbytrade™ primary Daily Trade Pattern Structure calculations indicate the S&P500 is in a position similar to where it was on February 4, 2020. Based on key structural data points, the Fibonacci retracement sequence reveals a high correlation to the 2019 trade pattern. Secondary calculations indicate the S&P500 is in a position similar to where it was on November 16, 2021. A decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Artificial Intelligence Bubble

Prior to the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2000, a series of events initiated a dot-com bubble that would be remembered for decades. Today we have an Artificial Intelligence bubble headed for the same fate. One clear comparison is the price chart of NVIDA in 2024 vs. Apple in 2000. NVIDA’s price scale is currently 1000 times larger than Apple’s scale in 2000. Overall, the current Artificial Intelligence bubble is expected to be similar to the dot-com bubble with one difference. Instead of large brokerage firms fueling the bubble, very large hedge funds are also participating.

Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: Not the Fed

On April 20, 2024 it was noted that futures traders were repositioning trades with the expectation of a decline in rates. Positioning is reflected in the charts shown below where a 61.35 degree angle from the Y axis appeared in 2018.  This same structural angle reappeared between June 2022 and October 2023. It has placed the 10-Yr Note interest rate on a 2018 path. Futures traders are still waiting for a decline in rates. This will be generated by the bond market, not the Fed.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Global Companies

On May 2, 2024 it was observed that a recent peak of positions in US Equity Futures by Asset Managers was above its 2014 peak. This indicator appeared to have a relatively low correlation to the Dow and S&P500. Further research revealed a high correlation of global companies that included CAT, CVX, IBM, and XOM.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: 2024 Angle Rise

On December 22, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Gold/U.S Dollar derivative calculations have moved quickly in a direction that confirms gold is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure. This is similar to what developed during 2008 and 2009. Gold’s recent move confirms a 2024 angle rise of 44.43 degrees. This is similar to the angle rise in 2009. Gold is still expected to conduct a move that is similar to what occurred between 2010 and 2011.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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