On September 24, 2023 a chart was provided to show the relative value of silver derivatives vs. U.S. Dollar. The following relative value update continues to show silver is undervalued and aligns with the expectation of a long term move upward.
Silver: Ascending Triangle Position
On March 7, 2024 an ascending triangle was provided for silver and gold. This noted the need for confirmation in silver before moving significantly higher. In addition to this, the following charts provide a perspective on silver’s current ascending triangle position compared to 1973. An initial move similar to what occurred in the first quarter of 1974 is expected. Economic reasons for this move are outlined on the December 24, 2023 post.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: Large Block Trades Update
On February 24, 2024, selected charts illustrated 10-Year Note futures trading positions relative to the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield. Futures trader positions and yield have remained relatively unchanged up to this point. It has been observed that an increasing number of extremely large block trades have been crossing the tape as a falling wedge forms in the chart shown below. Since late September 2023 volume has been significantly larger than what occurred in 2007, 2008, and late 2018 combined. This would align with the expectation that bond yields will fall as stock markets decline, regardless of what the Federal Reserve does.
Note that the chart shown below is for research purposes only and is not a recommendation.
As always, volume, not price, is the principal guarantor of the markets direction.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 129
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: IBM Structure
One big tech company that has been a component of the Dow for decades is IBM. IBM’s structure between July 1972 and February 1973 is very similar to its structure between December 2022 and March 2024. Market Makers appear to be using the 1972 – 1973 IBM structure as a precursor for the next decline. It is not a coincidence that Market Makers are currently using companies, such as IBM, in a merchandising operation to push the Dow to new highs, while companies such as Amgen, Boeing, Nike, United Health, and Walgreens are being driven to lower levels.
It is typical of the specialist’s modus operandi, however, that, regardless of the trend then under way, specialist merchandising strategies will adapt themselves to exploit the profit potentials of bullish or bearish announcements.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 103
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: January 1973
On March 2, 2024 it was noted that a rise in the Dow between October 2023 and March 2024 was similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. Initial measurements indicate this move followed a 41.46 degree upper trend line. As of March 26, 2024, this measurement was updated in comparison with the peak in January 1973 using an upper trend line measurement of 39.91 degrees.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Key Signal Points
On March 22, 2024 it was noted that Engrbytrade™ daily Dow trade pattern structure calculations indicated a move to dollars was in progress. This is also true for the S&P500. On March 14, 2024 an initial review of S&P500 trade patterns indicated algorithms were in the process of developing a structure that is similar to what was constructed between March 2019 and February 2020.
Additional research identified key signal points on the following dates:
- December 15, 2023, January 30, 2024, February 8, 2024 and March 15, 2024. Two of these points appeared during options expiration with a select group of stocks trading extremely large blocks.
- August 13, 2021, August 24, 2021, November 4, 2021, and November 17, 2021. One day after the last signal, market volatility started to increase and continued to cycle through 2022.
- December 18, 19, 20, 2019, December 23, 2019, January 17, 2020, and February 12, 2020. Seven days after the last signal, markets started a rapid decline.
Based on this history, there is a high probability that another decline is imminent.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Move to Dollars
Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicate a move to dollars is in progress to avoid another decline in the stock market. In 2021 daily Dow structure decline signals occurred on August 24, 2021, September 17, 2021 and October 26, 2021. The result was a 21.9% decline in the Dow between January 4, 2022 and September 30, 2022
Recent daily Dow structure signals occurred on November 21, 2023, December 15, 2023, and March 4, 2024. Based on this series of Dow signals another significant decline is expected to start in 2024. When this decline occurs the U.S. Dollar will move higher, as it did in 2022.
In addition to the daily pattern structure decline signals shown below, public records indicate Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Leon Black, and the Walton Family have sold a substantial sum of company stock.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow structure decline signals
Bitcoin: Flash Crash
On March 18, 2024 a flash crash occurred in the offshore BitMEX (Seychelles) exchange driving the price of Bitcoin as low as $8900.
This significant decline was initially expected to occur in 2022 based on the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. It appears someone, or an organization, expected a decline similar to the 1982 – 1985 Euro decline and needed to fill, or cover a trade. Volatility in Bitcoin is expected to pick up, just as the Euro did between 1988 and 1992.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: E-Mini Signals
A review of futures trading data revealed a correlation between E-Mini S&P 500 engrbytrade™ signals received on May 30, 2023 and September 11, 2007. The E-Mini signals are unusual and would not be expected prior to a move in the Dow or S&P500. But, when placing these signals within the context of a Fibonacci structure, it does provide some insight to an expectation of markets changing direction.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: British Pound Commercial Traders
On January 20, 2024 it was noted that futures traders were still not positioned for the U.S. Dollar to move to higher levels. Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations currently indicate British Pound commercial traders are in the process of positioning for the U.S. Dollar to start moving higher in 2024. Arrows in the charts below show specific points where Commercial Traders have taken significant short positions in the British Pound over the last thirteen years in preparation for a rise in the U.S. Dollar.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: Futures Trader Net Positions
The following charts provide a comparison between 10-Yr Note non-commercial futures trader net positions and 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in 2018 and 2024. Following extreme futures trading net positions taken in September 2018, the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average dropped from 4.72% on September 27, 2018 to 2.67% on December 31, 2020.
Current futures trader net positions identified between May 30, 2023 and January 16, 2024 are similar to what occurred between May 26, 2009 and April 13, 2010. Extreme positions taken in 2009 and 2010 were followed by the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average dropping from 4.91% on May 28, 2009 to 3.31% on November 21, 2012.
Noting that the current situation is similar to what occurred between May 2009 and April 2010, a slow decline in the 10-Yr Note rate and 30-Yr fixed rate mortgage average is expected to continue through 2024 and 2025.
S&P500: Trade Pattern Calculations
Engrbytrade™ daily S&P500 trade pattern calculations indicate algorithms are in the process of developing a structure that is similar to what was constructed between March 2019 and February 2020. Arrows indicate extreme signals noting an upcoming change in direction is expected. To a lesser extent this is also the case for the Dow.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold: Silver Confirmation Move
On December 22, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Gold/U.S Dollar derivative calculations moved quickly in a direction confirming gold was nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure that is similar to what was developed during 2008 and 2009. On February 18, 2024 it was noted that Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving in a direction confirming silver is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure.
What is needed at this point is a silver confirmation move above its ascending triangle before both metals are expected to continue moving significantly higher.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Euro/Bitcoin: Leading Indicator
On February 28, 2024 it was noted that a descending triangle was forming in the Euro and it is similar to what occurred in 2020 – 2021. Based on current futures trader position calculations the Euro, at this point, is a Bitcoin leading indicator. The Euro is in a position similar to where it was on August 5, 2021. Bitcoin did not start to move lower in 2021 until the Euro dropped out of the descending triangle in mid-November 2021. Bitcoin and the Euro appear to be repeating the same process developed in late 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: AI Bubble
In March 2000, the Internet Bubble was well underway with Intel going parabolic. Intel ultimately survived the Dot Com bust, but numerous computer and technology companies did not survive and were “disestablished” in the decade that followed.
Today artificial intelligence has introduced the AI Bubble, and it is well underway with NVIDIA leading the way. Comparing Intel in March 2000 to NVIDIA in March 2024 provides some insight to the relative position of today’s bubble. NVIDIA’s current position aligns with the Dow ratio measurement taken on March 3, 2024. Optimism will continue as it did going into March – April 2000, when many tech stocks peaked.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Ratio Measurement
Based on angles discussed on March 2, 2024 where algorithms appear to continue duplicating the 1973 Dow structure, an Engrbytrade™ custom ratio measurement was taken from reference points where geometric lines intersect rather than using traditional Fibonacci structure points. Based on the 1973 Dow structure shown below, a brief decline is still expected, followed by a 1.65% move up above the February 23, 2024 high to reach 45,763.88 (+/- 1%) before starting a long term decline.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Point Eleven Update
The following chart provides a point eleven of thirteen update to reflect angles discussed on March 2, 2024.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P 500: December 1972
The rise in the Dow and S&P 500 between October 2023 and March 2024 has been similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. The Dow moved upward along a 41.46 degree trend line while the S&P 500 followed a 43.23 degree trend line. This would indicate the 2023 – 2024 structures were developed by algorithms based on what occurred in late 1972. The expected result of this move is a brief decline followed by one more move upward before starting a long decline in 2024.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Euro: Descending Triangle
On January 20, 2024 it was noted that the Euro is expected to continue a long term decline going into 2024 and 2025. Engrbytrade™ futures trader positions still indicate this is the case. In addition to this a descending triangle is forming, and is similar to what occurred in 2020 – 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Crossroad
It was noted on February 12, 2024 that preliminary calculations indicated placement of the final point in a 1973 structure model would be expected to occur within a 2024 peak range of 38,559 +/-5.963% (36,260 to 40,859). On Friday, February 23, 2024, the Dow hit a high of 39,282.3. Market Makers, Exchange Insiders, Bankers, et al. are at a crossroad where they need to decide if the 1973 model structure will continue with a decline in 2024, or adapt to another structure and continue moving higher. This also applies to the S&P500. Ultimately, the end result will be a significant decline and depression for either choice.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: Large Block Trades
Interest rate futures data continues to show the 10-Yr Note rate is expected to decline in 2024. In comparison to this data, products such as the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF appear to be under accumulation by Market Makers with extremely large block trades observed crossing the tape since October 2023. This does not mean that the Federal Reserve will be the first to lower rates. Wall Street will be first in line to accumulate notes, resulting in lower rates as stock markets decline. When volatility increases in the stock market, the Fed will eventually step in to lower rates while the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” starts buying stock futures, as they did in December 2018.
Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.
The cultural response of most investors is based on the assumption that “if somebody is buying, somebody is selling; not for a moment is it recognized that, in most cases “if somebody is buying,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is selling; and if “somebody is selling,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is buying.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 150
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Descending Triangles
Since mid-December 2023 a series of descending triangles have appeared that include Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Walgreens, and the Japanese Yen. This is very similar to what occurred between April – September 2008 with stocks such as Apple, Chevron, Disney, and Goldman Sachs. Currency descending triangles in 2008 included the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc. Based on the current Japanese Yen descending triangle, it is a preliminary indication of positioning expected in the U.S. Dollar before moving higher, as noted on January 20, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Selective Declines
On January 26, 2024 and February 4, 2024 it was noted how Market Makers move a group of stocks without revealing their intentions to the public while providing minimal impact on the Dow’s movement. Between February 1, 2024 and February 20, 2024 Market Makers conducted selective declines in Amgen, Cisco, Honeywell, and Verizon. In order to avoid a rush of broad retail selling an offset to this decline was setup with a move up in issues such as American Express, Caterpillar, Salesforce, Disney, JP Morgan, Merck, Travelers, and Walmart. This was conducted to maintain the Dow within 50 point range between February 1, 2023 and February 20, 2023.
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the ( Market Makers formerly known as Specialists) who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: Upward Trend
On September 6, 2022, Engrbytrade™ weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations provided results indicating a change in direction. This was followed by silver’s upward trend.
On December 24, 2023, it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving in a direction that confirmed silver is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure. This is similar to what occurred between 2008 and 2010.
Silver is expected to move though its ascending triangle, but another signal would provide confirmation that an upward trend will continue.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 2008 Utility Average Index
On February 5, 2024 a review of the Dow Transportation Index revealed similar angles in the 2007 – 2008 and 2021 – 2024 chart structures. The Dow Utility Average Index also contains a similar angle of 30.89 degrees in the declining structures shown below.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
