Engrbytrade Posts

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Interest Rates: TLT vs US10Yr

On September 15, 2025 it was noted that since October 2023 very large seven figure block trades have crossed the tape for TLT. This big block accumulation continues as TLT is bound within a trading range.

In addition to this, the 10Yr Note interest rate is still above its 19.3 degree support line. This rate will continue to move lower, just as it did in 2007 before the Fed cut rates  in September 2007. Prior to this cut, bad news continued to roll in from the housing market. Big mortgage losses were also increasing.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Maker Actions

Based on the following, a decline is still expected. This could be a repeat of late 2024 to early 2025, or another variation created by Market Maker actions before moving up again. .

The S&P500 RSI continues to follow a 19.23 degree support line, as shown below. This is similar to late 2024 and early 2025, as well as 2000.

On Friday October 10, 2025 Market Makers were very selective in their accumulation process with Dow stocks. Size was limited to accumulated inventory that could be distributed to investors over a relatively short period of time while prices increase slowly.

In the background optimism is still high with investors holding a significant number of call options according to the CNN Put and Call Options chart.

Like the musicians in an orchestra, the (Market Makers formerly known as) specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 8 2025

The NAAIM Index is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on December 18, 2024. As of 2:42 P.M ET today, the CNN Fear & Greed Index had a reading (33) within 1 point of where it was on December 18, 2024. The CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio indicates investors are still holding a significant number of call options. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets. Increasing volatility is still expected going into the end of 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Consolidation Phase

On October 4, 2025 data indicated that a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD would result in the start of a consolidation phase. On October 9, 2025 daily volume moved above 33 million shares as the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) moved lower. A slow consolidation phase should start from here. A change in direction would be expected if the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index reading dropped below 15.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: 1979 vs 2025

On June 30, 2025 it was noted that approval of economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially,this cost is exponentially larger than the economic stimulus packages passed between 1974 and 1979. The following charts are an updated comparison of how economic stimulus affects gold.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Watch GLD

Gold continues to move higher. On September 5, 2025 it was noted that the current peak in the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When this occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This is still the case.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Russell 2000 Pattern

The following charts show a repeating Russell 2000 pattern. On November 6, 2024 over 70 million shares were traded with a 5.79% increase in price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on November 25, 2024. After that a decline started and continued until early April 2025.

On September 17, 2025 over 79 million shares were traded with a 3% swing in the price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on October 3, 2025.

On a smaller scale, something similar to this pattern occurred in August 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 1 2025

As of October 1, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets.

In the background, the CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio hit a low at the close with a reading of 0.57 on September 19, 2025. Investors are holding a significant number of call options as tech stocks rallied during the last half of September. Put/Call Ratio readings between November 2024 and mid-February 2025 are similar to what was recorded between July and September 2025.

The daily close for the Fear & Greed Index also indicates a drop in the markets is expected to be similar to December 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dollar/S&P500: 2006 vs 2025

S&P500 vs U.S. Dollar calculations indicate Non-Commercial futures traders are repeating a pattern that is similar to that of 2006. Data for the Dollar from September 16, 2025 aligns with June 2, 2006. This is an indication that a course has been determined for a decline of the Dollar. This move would also have an effect on other currencies and commodities such as the British Pound, Crude Oil, S&P500, and Silver. Short term corrections in the stock market are expected, but as the Dollar and interest rates decline it could support the markets. This pattern will be monitored closely for any changes.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: SPX RSI Divergence

Using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a value of 20 periods, a closer view of the current S&P500 path is a setup for repeating 2024 – 2025 and/or 2000. Each setup has a 19.23 degree angle for the RSI divergence support trendline. This could be due to any number of factors, such as trading firm procedures, algorithms, etc. When the S&P500 crosses its lower trend line markets could unwind very quickly going into 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: TLT Volume

Since October 2023 very large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for TLT. It appears Market Makers, Exchange Insiders, Bankers, etc., have been accumulating a significant amount of inventory. The 2023 – 2025 accumulation volume is significantly larger than what occurred between 2010 – 2011 and 2007 – 2008 combined. Volume in the following charts provides a comparison between each accumulation period. The end result could have detrimental or positive affects on various markets, such as foreign currencies, metals, stocks, and bitcoin. Additional data will be needed to determine the outcome.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 2025 Fed Rate Cut

On July 19, 2025, it was noted that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering their target rate was very low. The following charts illustrate 2007 and 2025 structural angles are similar. They also show when the first Fed rate cut occurred on September 18, 2007. As of September 13, 2025 the CMEFedwatch site indicates there is a 93.4% chance of the Fed lowering its target rate range to 4.00 – 4.25. Rates should continue to move lower in 2025 and 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – September 10 2025

On September 5, 2025 it was noted that some volatile trading days are expected in the coming weeks. This is still the case. Managers adjusted positions this week to within 5% of the data recorded on October 16, 2024. This includes the Mean/Average and Standard Deviation.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear, Greed, and Hindenburg

On August 18, 2025 it was noted that a decline is expected during the last quarter of 2025. This is based on key points in the Fear and Greed 5-Day average put/call ratio. The following chart identifies key points when investors were overweight in their holdings of call options.

In addition to this a signal from the NASDAQ Hindenburg Omen Index appeared on September 4, 2025. This signal is consistent with a previous reading that followed the Fear and Greed put/call ratio.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Volume Needed for Consolidation Phase

On August 26, 2025 it was noted that the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM)  hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This peak should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When that occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This happened after the July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020 bullish peaks. The next move upward is expected to start when the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index drops below 20.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – September 3 2025

Reviewing the Fear & Greed Index, it appears sentiment between August 1, 2025 and September 3, 2025 has been following a pattern similar to what occurred between November 18, 2024 and December 18, 2024. On December 18, 2024 managers increased their bearish position from -75 to -100.

As of September 3, 2025 investment managers increased their bearish position to -200. This would indicate some volatile trading days are expected in the coming weeks.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

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Dow: 27.77 Degree Trend Line

At the moment the Dow is supported by a 27.77 degree trend line. This trend line also appeared between 2011 and 2015. Points 1 and 2 touched the trend line in the last quarter of 2011 and 2012. In October 2014 a flash crash in the bond market pushed the Dow to this line again for point 3.

The current 27.77 degree trend line started between 2022 and 2023. The 2022 decline ending between September and October initiating point 1 on the line. The Dow dropped again in October 2023 for a variety of reasons hitting point 2  on the line. On April 2, 2025 tariffs went into effect and the Dow dropped again for point 3 on the line.

The 27.77 degree value is not a random value in this case. It has appeared in the past going back to the 1940s.

At this point stock markets are expected to move up slowly, just as they did in January and February 2020. Another decline is coming and the Dow will drop below this trend line triggering sell orders for retail investors. Investor sentiment will decline quickly. During this decline Market Makers will be able to acquire additional inventory before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – August 27 2025

Managers are still leveraged to the bullish side with readings of 200% bullish and 0% bearish. This is identical to the bullish (200%) and bearish (0%) readings on January 8, 2020. Stock markets are expected to move up slowly, just as they did in January and February 2020. Based on other indicators a decline should occur in the last quarter of 2025. It is still unknown at this point how quickly a decline will occur.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

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GOLD: Consolidation Period Starts

On May 2, 2025 research indicated gold was in a position that was similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. Since that time the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPDGM)  hit a peak reading of 100 on August 8, 2025. This is similar to what occurred on July 1, 2016 and July 2, 2020. Both dates were followed by a consolidation period in gold. It appears Market Makers have run out of buyers in products such as the GDX, and another consolidation period is expected to begin.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – August 20 2025

On August 7, 2025 it was noted that the NAAIM index reading was very close to where it was on January 8, 2020. The index is currently in a position similar to where it was in January 2020, when the Fed Funds effective rate was 1.55 percent. Another bounce upward in the stock markets would be expected, just as they did in February 2020. Then, a decline should follow.  It is unknown at this point how quickly a decline will occur.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: TLT 2011 Pattern Continues

On August 1, 2025 it was noted that Market Maker’s were continuing their effort to accumulate inventory. TLT is still following its 2011 chart structure and interest rates are expected to fall this year. As of this writing, Jerome Powell is attending the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium to deliver a speech. If Market Maker’s are correct, interest rates would be expected to move lower during the remaining months of 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear and Greed Options

The CNN Fear & Greed Index by itself is a guide, not necessarily a way to pinpoint highs and lows. Part of this index is the 5-Day average put/call ratio. This can be useful to identify extremes in put and call holdings. For example, the chart below illustrates key points over the last 13 months when investors were overweight in their holdings of call options. Based on current readings a decline is expected during the last quarter of 2025. This correction would lead to an adjustment of option holdings and be expected to drop the index into its Extreme Fear & Greed range with a reading below 20.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – August 6 2025

The NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 96.25. This and related index data are very close to where they were on January 8, 2020, as shown below. On July 30, 2025 it was noted that the S&P500 was moving out of a rising wedge. Based on the following data markets are expected to move lower.

August 6, 2025

Date: 8/6/2025
Mean/Average: 96.26
Most Bearish Response: 0
Quart 1 (25% at/below): 90
Quart 2 (median): 100
Quart 3 (25% at/above): 100
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 35.96
NAAIM Number: 96.26
S&P 500: 6345.06

January 8, 2020

Date: 1/8/2020
Mean/Average: 94.16
Most Bearish Response: 0
Quart 1 (25% at/below): 90.75
Quart 2 (median): 100
Quart 3 (25% at/above): 100
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 40.66
NAAIM Number: 94.16
S&P 500: 3253.05

NAAIM –  Data Source

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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