Engrbytrade Posts

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US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold Update

On April 20, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar was expected to move lower. Non-commercial traders would move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher. Current intermarket relationships between the Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold continue to show the Dollar moving lower. The Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Gold should continue to move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: Rise in 2025

On December 24, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving quickly in a direction to complete a move out of its long term ascending triangle structure. The first chart shows silver moving out of this ascending triangle. The second chart indicates a rise in 2025 will be similar to 2010 – 2011. Trillions of Congressional approved Dollars between 2020 and 2022 have finally made their way through the system. This will drive silver prices much higher.

The following chart percentages are structural measurements not Fibonacci ratios.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – June 4 2025

On May 15, 2025 it was noted that markets were still expected to move higher. As markets moved higher investment managers would adjust their exposure, as needed. On June 4, 2025, investment managers adjusted their exposure in a way that is similar to what occurred on June 10, 2020. This aligns with the S&P500 index, which has a 78.6% retracement formation that is similar to June 2020. The possibility of an increase in volatility is expected over the short term before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/NASDAQ: INTC Accumulation

In November 2024 Intel was dropped from the Dow 30 and replaced with NVDA after its decline on very light volume between March 2021 and July 2024. There is a good reason for this. It took Intel out of the day to day spotlight of the news cycle. It also allows Market Makers to accumulate what they need to eventually move prices higher. Over the last several months INTC daily volume has continued to spike with a steady flow of extremely large blocks crossing the tape. A pattern similar to this occurred after 2009. It is unknown at this time what the incentive is for initiating this type of accumulation process, but it could continue over the next few years.

“It is only when they (Specialists currently known as Market Makers) are able to decline on light volume that they can afford to carry the decline to lower prices.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: Tracking 2007

Silver is currently on track with 2007 based on Non-Commercial Trader weekly net positions vs. the U.S. Dollar. Silver is also in a position similar to where it was in late April 2007. A brief decline is expected between now and October 2025. After this decline, interest rates will affect silver. If rates start to fall, as they did in October 2007, silver should respond by moving higher and peak in the first quarter of 2026.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Bitcoin/Euro: Bitcoin vs. 1979 Euro Structure

Bitcoin continues to develop a structure that is similar to the 1971 – 1985 Euro structure. Key turning points have been identified on the charts shown below.
As of May 23, 2025 Bitcoin was in a structural position similar to where the Euro was in November 1979.

Reference: Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model page

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Interest Rates: 10Yr Note Rate Review

As the 10Yr Note rate chart structure continues to develop, it appears it is still in the process of duplicating the 2005-2007 chart structure. This is shown below with a 19.3 degree trend line in 2024-2025. A drop below this line in 2025 would indicate a long decline has started. The Non-Commercial Trader chart shown below also provides some context to the development of today’s structure. In 2018 net positions hit a low on October 2, 2018 before rates turned and started to drop. Net Non-Commercial positions continue to remain well below the level of 2018. Based on current data the 10Yr rate is expected to start a decline during the last half of 2025. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Big Block Trading

The following should provide some perspective on big block trading during the decline in 2025. A 27 day period was selected during the decline in March – April 2025 and September – October 2023. Apple block trades with over 5 million shares were used as a sample base. Results showed the total number of Apple shares traded in March – April 2025 was 49% larger than September – October 2023. Since Market Makers operate a merchandising system, they will have an incentive to distribute this, and other shares accumulated, at much higher prices in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 14 2025

On May 1, 2025 it was noted that a move higher was expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. The upcoming 2025 pattern should be similar to 2019.  NAAIM Exposure Index charts shown below indicate investment managers have recently reacted in a manner similar to 2019. This move by itself is not an indication that markets will move higher or lower. But, when asset exposure moves  to extremes it is an indication that markets are oversold or overbought.

Markets are still expected to move higher. Confirmation is needed from Indicators, such as the weekly NYSE Hindenburg Omen index. As markets move higher, investment managers will adjust their exposure.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Silent Collapse List

On January 15, 2025 a list of 6 companies were identified for the Engrbytrade™ Silent Collapse List. Since that time the list has grown to 12 companies. These are companies that have not materially participated in the stock market rally over the last few years. Or, like Apple, they are in the process of breaking down. A review of 2007 was conducted for a comparison to 2025. Between 2002 and 2007 there were 10 companies that did not participate or were breaking down. Some companies have since been removed from the Dow, such as Alcoa and Citigroup. The Dow is still expected to move higher, as noted on May 9, 2025 based on sentiment and other technical indicators. But, this lack of participation with stocks breaking down is a risk that needs to be monitored closely.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 7 2025

To provide some context for the current NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.06, a comparison was done between the NAAIM 2019 and 2025 charts.  After the S&P500 declined in December 2018, the NAAIM Index moved up to 83.39 on February 6, 2019. After the recent S&P500 decline in April 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 81.06 on March 7, 2025. There were numerous reasons for market declines in 2018 and 2025. But, the reaction from investment managers was the same. Based on similar S&P500 chart structures and investment manager reactions, it appears markets should move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple’s 2025 Decline

Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: Volatility In 2025

In August of 2011 a series of events led to extreme volatility while stock markets declined. One event included a US credit rating downgrade by the Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency. Accumulation of bond related shares using very large block trades, along with similar TLT chart structures shown below, indicates trouble is on the way. It appears Exchange Insiders are preparing for volatility in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: 2010 vs 2025

Research indicates gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on November 4, 2010. This 2010 vs 2025 position is based on a representative average value of gold derivatives vs the U.S. Dollar. Gold hit an extremely undervalued position on September 27, 2022 and has doubled in price since then. A move to higher levels is still expected over the next several months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 30 2025

The NAAIM Index hit a reading of 59.92 on April 30, 2025. This is very close to the reading of 59.43 on January 2, 2019.  Note that patterns in the Dow during 2024-2025 and 2018-2019 are similar.  These structures were developed over a period of time when tariffs were being applied. A move higher is expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. They should follow the 2019 pattern. The charts below illustrate this comparison.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: S&P500 Monthly Chart

The Engrbytrade™ 1929 Dow Model has been updated based on positioning of the S&P500 monthly chart. The S&P500 monthly chart for April 2025 has a bullish long tail candlestick pattern. This is similar to what was recorded in March 1929. This aligns with other bullish indicators discussed in April 2025. Extremely large block trades have also continued to cross the tape. A move up into September and October is expected.

 

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Dow: Optimism Will Prevail

Market Makers, formerly known as Specialists, and bankers leave nothing to chance. Structures repeat based on the needs of Exchange Insiders. Tariffs in 2025 were the perfect motive to repeat previous structures from 2018 and 1928-1929. In both cases a rally followed ultimately leading to a significant market collapse. It looks like 2025–2026 will be no exception. Optimism will prevail as markets move higher.

“One can trade on the knowledge that the Exchange operates according to the principle “the best way to control history is to shape it yourself.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 258

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Waiting for October

During February, March and April 2025 Market Makers (and Bankers) pulled the markets back by using tariffs as an excuse. It appears Exchange Insiders are waiting for October, after the end of the fiscal year, before starting a significant decline. That is when the Washington D.C. corporation is expected to pay its creditors. Unfortunately, this corporation has trillions in debt and unfunded liabilities. They do not have the assets to pay their creditors and will do what ever is needed to to avoid it, including a market collapse. Time will tell. In the interim, a steady move up into August and September is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Depression Cycle Arrives in 2025 and 2026

Charles Nenner notes that a depression is expected to start by the end of 2025. A stock market decline should start by the end of 2025 and continue through 2026. Based on history, the last quarter of 2025 would be a logical starting point for this decline.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold

On March 23, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar would not be expected to move higher. Since that time the Dollar has continued to move lower as other currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, move higher. Gold has also continued to move higher. A comparison between 2005 to 2009 and the current move in gold shows two things. One, the Dollar is expected to move lower. Two, gold is expected to move higher as the value of the Dollar declines. Non-commercial traders will slowly move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dollar: 2017 vs 2025 Dow

On April 12, 2025 it was noted that as the U.S. Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008. In addition to this Engrbytrade™ trade markers identified in the following 2015 Dollar chart structure are similar to what was identified in the 2023 chart structure. This indicates the Dollar is expected to continue moving lower through 2025 and into 2026. A decline in the Dollar will affect the stock market. When the Dollar declined in 2017, 25 out of 30 Dow stocks moved higher that year. The Dollar’s expected move to lower levels also aligns with several independent stock market indicators.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 16, 2025

On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Exposure Index data courtesy of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Johnson & Johnson

Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver

On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer