On April 20, 2024 it was noted that futures traders were repositioning trades with the expectation of a decline in rates. Positioning is reflected in the charts shown below where a 61.35 degree angle from the Y axis appeared in 2018. This same structural angle reappeared between June 2022 and October 2023. It has placed the 10-Yr Note interest rate on a 2018 path. Futures traders are still waiting for a decline in rates. This will be generated by the bond market, not the Fed.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
