On August 17, 2024 it was noted that mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note interest rate structure positioning was in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500. This would mean the value of the 10-Yr Note would rise as interest rates decline. At that time the 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader chart was certainly what would be considered a “crowded trade”.
On September 3, 2024 the 10-Yr Note interest rate was still positioned for a decline. Non-Commercial Trader Net positions for the underlying 10-Yr Note were hedged to the short side. This means they are positioned for interest rates to rise.
The 30-Yr bond total reportable positions of clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers are shown below. Their positions are also hedged to the short side and positioned for rates to rise.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Interest rate and bond chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
