On September 28, 2024 it was noted that there is a 70% chance of a sharp decline in the 10-Yr Note rate by year end. This was based on the 2024 descending triangle that is similar to what occurred in 1982 and 2000. 10-Yr Non-Commercial Trader Net positions continue to remain in an extreme position. The expectation of rates starting a decline before the end of 2024 is still in place.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
US10Yr Note chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
