On November 26, 2024 it was noted that there was a 70% chance of a sharp decline in the 10-Yr Note rate by year end. Looking at the 30-Yr Treasury rate there is an expectation that it will move lower in 2025. This is based on the following:
1. The 30-Yr Treasury descending triangle structure.
2. Futures data from net Total Reportable Positions on the 30-Yr Bond indicates they are significantly larger than what was recorded in 2019.
3. A significant increase in volume in products such as TLT.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Bond related charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
