On May 24, 2025 it was noted that based on current data the 10Yr rate is expected to start a decline during the last half of 2025. Rates have been moving sideways with a close of 4.42% on July 18, 2025. Non-Commercial Traders are still holding short positions on a level similar to that of October 2, 2018. At this point the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering their target rate is very low. But, in the background, a review of technology stocks, such as NVIDIA, indicates an upcoming decline could be much larger than expected. This would certainly drive the Fed to start lowering rates.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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