On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was their first rate cut in four years. In late October 2007 rates started dropping until the end of March 2008.
On September 18, 2024 the Fed cut its target for the fed funds rate by a half-point. This was also their first cut in four years. Since their last rate cut occurred the 10-Yr rate has moved up 0.86% to 4.56%.
Non-Commercial futures traders are still positioned where interest rates are expected to fall. It appears the Fed, bond market, or both are waiting for something to trigger a rate decline. Overall, there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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