Engrbytrade™ bitcoin daily calculations indicate bitcoin is expected to continue moving up to a level of 53,763 (+/- 1%).
Bitcoin: 50% Retracement
Engrbytrade™ bitcoin daily calculations and intermarket futures trading data indicate bitcoin is expected to move higher over the next two months. Preliminary data shows a 50% retracement to 50,850.
Dow: Tom Lee
Not a surprise that Tom Lee agrees on a rally in February. Bitcoin is still expected to continue trending lower this year with a move similar to that of the Euro in 1980.
A violent rally in February? @fundstrat's Tom Lee joins 'Fast Money' to give his forecast for the market and bitcoin after the bumpy January. $BTC pic.twitter.com/L4XrJmpqT6
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) January 31, 2022
Bitcoin: Long Term Update
Additional research confirms that Bitcoin is not developing a head and shoulders pattern, but is in the process of completing a double top reversal that is similar to what occurred in 1980 when the Euro and gold peaked prior to a long term decline. Bitcoin is currently in a position that is similar to where gold closed on January 26, 1981. This decline is expected to continue for at least three years.
Bitcoin: Long Term
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Structural calculations indicate Bitcoin is in the process of duplicating the 1973 to 1980 Euro chart structure using an abbreviated timeline that started in 2017. Bitcoin is expected to drop to 30,000 by February 2022. After moving to 30,000 it is expected to move above 55,000 before starting the next move down to complete a head and shoulders formation. This final move down will be the start of a long term decline.
Bitcoin: Volatile Accumulation
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to show Bitcoin is in a long term accumulation phase noted in the October 30, 2021 post. This is also expected to be a volatile accumulation period on a much larger scale than what occurred during November 2018, and March 2020.
Bitcoin: Accumulation Period
Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin’s current value has moved below Futures Traders expectations relative to the U.S. Dollar. A similar situation occurred when the U.S. Dollar moved higher between January 2018 and December 2018. A long term accumulation period for Bitcoin started in December 2018 and continued until May 2020. Bitcoin is starting another accumulation period, as observed during the last week of October 2021, and is expected to continue moving higher over the long term.
Bitcoin: October 15, 2018
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin appears to be in a similar structural position relative to where it was on October 15, 2018. A decline is expected to start by November 15, 2021 with an accumulation period occurring between November 2021 and December 2021 prior to moving higher.
Bitcoin: Trend Lower
Intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to indicate Bitcoin will trend lower during the remainder of 2021. As of July 23, 2021 trading data indicates Bitcoin is in a similar structural position relative to July 16, 2018.
Bitcoin: Decline Continues
Calculations indicate a decline is expected to continue just as it did in early 2018. Bitcoin’s structural design from December 2017 to April 2021 is similar to that of December 2014 to December 2017. Commercial Futures Traders still hold a significant number of bitcoin short positions relative to its value against the Dollar. Since bitcoin started trading in 2010, it is unknown what the impact will be with a substantial decline in the Dow, as discussed in the May 12, 2021 post. This may explain why Goldman Sachs set up crypto currency trading desk for their wealthy clients.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin vs Dollar
On January 4, 1971 the EuroUSD index started trading with an opening value of 0.5353. By December 3, 1979 the EuroUSD index hit a high of 1.1418 before starting a decline in January 1980. Thirty-nine years after the EuroUSD index started trading, the BTCUSD (Bitcoin/USD) index started trading on July 19, 2010 with an opening value of 0.08584. It has taken Bitcoin 11 years to develop a structure that is similar to the EuroUSD that ran from 1971 to 1980. As the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq start their long term decline in 2021, the value of the U.S. Dollar will rise just as it did between 1980 and 1985.
It was noted in the March 1, 2021 post that calculations indicate global currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro are expected to retest their previous 2020 lows by early 2023 as the U.S. Dollar moves higher. Bitcoin is also expected to have a significant decline for several years, similar to what occurred with the EuroUSD index between 1980 and 1985.