Intermarket structural analysis research
The Future of Money
Eswar Prasad, WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, June 2023
Go to the 32:30 mark:
“You can have programmability. Units of Central Bank Digital Currency with expiry dates. You could have, as I argue in my book a potentially better than some people might see, or a darker world where a Government decides that units of Central Bank money can be used to purchase some things, but not other things that are deemed less desirable….”
On June 28, 2023 daily calculations indicated the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. When the Dollar moves higher bitcoin will move lower, as shown in the chart below. During this move the Engrbytrade™ bitcoin model indicates bitcoin will move below 10,000. This will allow major banks to accumulate bitcoin and use it as a bank reserve for future central bank requirements. Upon completion of the banks accumulation of bitcoin at lower levels, bitcoin is then expected to move well above its November 2021 high in the coming years, just as the Euro moved from 0.56 in February 1985 to 1.40 in September 1992.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On March 29, 2023 it was noted that daily calculations indicated the US Dollar was expected to turn and trend higher. Since that date, daily Engrbytrade™ Dollar calculations continue to indicate a strong accumulation of dollars. Arrows provided in the Dollar charts shown below identify specific accumulation points. It appears an accumulation process was initiated during the 2nd quarter of 2023, and is similar to what occurred during the 2nd quarter of 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations show the S&P500 is expected to see its long term upward trend continue into 2023.
A detailed review was conducted with S&P500 futures trading data to identify specific time frames when a change of direction occurred based on its relative value to the US Dollar. The result of this review revealed a consistent large scale pattern since 2006 where several points were identified as a validation of upward movement. There were only two points (1/30/07 and 4/3/21) that occurred several months before the S&P500 started to move lower. Since the low in October 2022, upward movement was once again validated on 4/4/23.
Within this 2006 to 2023 time frame of large scale pattern validation points are numerous periods of volatility, such as short term declines noted below. Prospective declines should be monitored with the appropriate data and calculations. The average decline within the follow group is 16.14%. Expectations for a decline in the coming weeks still exist, as noted on June 20, 2023.
15% decline between April 26, 2010 and July 2, 2010
16% decline between July 25, 2011 and August 8, 2011
10% decline between August 18, 2015 and August 25, 2015
11% decline between December 30, 2015 and February 11, 2016
9% decline between January 29, 2018 and February 8, 2018
19% decline between October 3, 2018 and December 24, 2018
33% decline between February 19, 2020 and March 23, 2020 (Outlier)
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ daily calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. This turn follows a similar three month pattern setup when calculations from December 23, 2021 and March 21, 2022 indicated a move up was expected. On December 27, 2022 the first signal was received. Three months later on March 28, 2023 the second signal was received. This move upward aligns with an expectation of a decline in the stock markets during 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to continue moving lower. Similar daily calculation results noting a decline occurred on November 15, 2022. Weekly futures trading data calculations also indicate the Dollar will continue to move lower in 2023. In addition to this the effect of a declining Dollar will cause gold and silver to continue moving higher. Current intermarket futures trading data structural calculation results for gold and silver are similar to that of January 27, 2009.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 9, 2022, it was noted that the US Dollar had an upper trend line angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis and was similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. The chart below shows the US Dollar hit a high of 114.75 on September 28, 2022 with an upper trend line angle of 24.19°. This indicates a predetermined course was developed after 2008 using an upper trend line angle of 25.225° (+/-1.035°). Current intermarket futures trading data calculations show the US Dollar is expected to move higher, repeating a move upward similar to what occurred during the first half of 2001. As the US Dollar moves toward the upper trend line, a decline in value is expected for the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Copper, Euro, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Platinum.
During the Dollar’s initial rise in 2001, the Dow moved up into mid-February 2001 and then had a sharp decline going into the end of March 2001. Preliminary data indicates the Dow is expected to conduct a move similar to this during the first quarter of 2023.
Long term intermarket futures trading data calculations also indicate gold and silver are expected to develop a predetermined inverse chart structure of the US Dollar that is similar to the time frame between January 2001 and March 2008, as shown in the charts below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The chart below shows the US Dollar currently has a trend line that is similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. Each upper trend line has an angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis. When the US Dollar reaches this upper trend line a change in direction is expected to occur in other major currencies, interest rates, gold, silver, stock markets, etc. just as they did in 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022 as currencies such as the Euro, and British Pound move lower. The result will be a move by the U.S. Dollar toward its upper trendline shown in the chart below. This is a repeat performance of what occurred going into 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 21, 2022 it was noted that U.S. Dollar intermarket futures trading data calculations indicated currency traders were expected to move from currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar into the U.S. Dollar. The pace of this move has accelerated with declines in the Swiss Franc, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations and structural calculations the U.S. Dollar is expected to move up to 110.80 by November 2022.
U.S. Dollar intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate currency traders are expected to move from the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar into the U.S. Dollar in a way that is similar to what occurred between December 4, 2018 and December 24, 2018. Since the Dow and S&P500 are expected to move lower this month, steady selling of very large blocks of stock will drive interest rates lower.
With daily engrbytrade™ gold calculations indicating a sharp decline is coming, this will be a result of the U.S. Dollar moving higher. The U.S. Dollar move will also cause intermarket products such as crude oil, 10-Yr Note rate, 30-Yr Note rate, bitcoin, silver, euro, and British Pound to decline, as they did in August 2018.
Based on Daily engrbytrade™ Gold calculations, intermarket futures trading data for gold, and Dollar futures trading data, the Dollar is expected to continue moving higher during the first quarter of 2022.
As noted on August 1, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicated a rise in the US Dollar during the remainder of 2021. This rise is expected to continue going into the end of 2021.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
The US Dollar chart structure developed between June 2007 and July 2008 is similar to the chart structure developed between June 2020 and July 2021. Results from futures trading data calculations for the US Dollar are in alignment with calculations from August 2008, indicating a rise in the US Dollar is expected during the remainder of 2021. This rise in the US Dollar would be similar to the move upward between August 2008 and December 2008. A rise in the US Dollar is also in alignment with an expected decline in the Dow later this year.
In the March 1, 2021 post it was noted that calculations indicate global currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro are expected to retest their previous 2020 lows by early 2023 as the U.S. Dollar moves higher. On April 5, 2021 Goldman Sachs finally closed its recommendation for shorting the dollar.