Category: Dollar

Posted on

Dollar/S&P500: 2006 vs 2025

S&P500 vs U.S. Dollar calculations indicate Non-Commercial futures traders are repeating a pattern that is similar to that of 2006. Data for the Dollar from September 16, 2025 aligns with June 2, 2006. This is an indication that a course has been determined for a decline of the Dollar. This move would also have an effect on other currencies and commodities such as the British Pound, Crude Oil, S&P500, and Silver. Short term corrections in the stock market are expected, but as the Dollar and interest rates decline it could support the markets. This pattern will be monitored closely for any changes.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dollar: 2022 to 2025 Peak

On July 9, 2025 it was noted that the U.S. Dollar was expected to move lower. The following charts provide additional information and include a 14.4 degree support angle that followed the peak in 2005 and 2022. Non-Commercial futures traders are following this very closely, just as they did in 2006 through 2007. This expected decline in the Dollar should result in a rise in Gold and Crude Oil similar to  2007 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Trading Patterns

On June 14, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar was expected to move lower. Non-Commercial Traders continue to shift their positions as the Dollar moves lower. Their trading patterns are also expected to be similar to 2007 with the Dollar moving significantly lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold Update

On April 20, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar was expected to move lower. Non-commercial traders would move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher. Current intermarket relationships between the Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold continue to show the Dollar moving lower. The Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Gold should continue to move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Gold

On March 23, 2025 it was noted that the US Dollar would not be expected to move higher. Since that time the Dollar has continued to move lower as other currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, move higher. Gold has also continued to move higher. A comparison between 2005 to 2009 and the current move in gold shows two things. One, the Dollar is expected to move lower. Two, gold is expected to move higher as the value of the Dollar declines. Non-commercial traders will slowly move out of their Dollar positions and move into Gold as it moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dollar: 2017 vs 2025 Dow

On April 12, 2025 it was noted that as the U.S. Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008. In addition to this Engrbytrade™ trade markers identified in the following 2015 Dollar chart structure are similar to what was identified in the 2023 chart structure. This indicates the Dollar is expected to continue moving lower through 2025 and into 2026. A decline in the Dollar will affect the stock market. When the Dollar declined in 2017, 25 out of 30 Dow stocks moved higher that year. The Dollar’s expected move to lower levels also aligns with several independent stock market indicators.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Impact on Gold and Silver

On March 23, 2025 the Canadian Dollar and Swiss France indicated a move up in the dollar was not expected. Non-commercial Trader net positions shown below continue to follow the 2005 to 2008 trend. As the Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc

Overall, the US Dollar has been moving sideways since January 2023. The following charts should provide some insight for movements of the US Dollar. Key dates are provided to illustrate turning points over the last several years. The last peak in the US Dollar occurred in October 2022 as Non-Commercial Trader data readings dropped below the 0.6 level in the following US Dollar chart. At this point a steady move upward in the US Dollar would not be expected until Non-Commercial Trader Net positions relative to open interest are below the -0.2 level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

U.S. Dollar: Major Signals from 2011

There are major signals from 2011 that are repeating today.
They include:
1. A significant accumulation of TLT,
2. Extreme futures trader positions in the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, 10-Yr Note, and
3. The completion of a gold cycle.

In addition to the above signals a silent collapse of Dow stocks is in progress.

Based on the above signals a significant event is coming in the weeks ahead and would be expected to shake the financial system. It may not have an immediate impact on stock markets, but the flight to safety will be obvious. Interest rates will decline. A short quick decline in the stock market could occur, but affected stocks will drop dramatically as the year progresses. This also means the U.S. Dollar will start a long term trend to move higher over the next several years. Gold will immediately hit a peak and then start a long term decline as the Dollar moves higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar/Dow/S&P500: Move to Swiss Francs

The following charts indicate Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders are near the end of a short selling cycle. Based on Commercial Trader positions, countries repatriating gold, tariffs, etc., banks, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and global corporations expect stock market and currency volatility in 2025 and 2026. They will move to Swiss Francs, among other stable assets, for safety just as they did in 2019 and 2020.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Currency chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/Dollar: Deflationary Forces

On October 12, 2024 three Non-Commercial gold futures trading points (1, 2, and 3) were identified in the following chart. What followed was a deflationary period where gold declined and the U.S. Dollar moved higher between 2011 and 2015.

Non-Commercial gold futures trader positions are currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three point trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6). What is expected to follow over the next four years are lower gold prices and an increasing value of the Dollar. This will be due to deflationary forces, which are not yet visible. It is expected to occur between 2025 and 2029. This also aligns with what was discussed on November 23, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Moving Higher

Non-Commercial trading data used for Canadian Dollar reviews has been under observation since mid-June 2024. In this case intermarket relationships would support the U.S. Dollar moving higher.

On November 4, 2024 it was noted that a decline in crude oil prices was expected. Any significant change in the U.S. Dollar was inconclusive. Prior to this, a review of the Euro was performed on October 25, 2024 noting that the U.S. Dollar was expected to move lower. The Canadian Dollar was still under review at this point.

On October 15, 2024 it was noted that a decline in gold was expected in 2025. In support of this it was noted on October 12, 2024 that a detailed review of Non-Commercial Gold Futures Trader positions revealed gold is currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence. This would result in the U.S. Dollar moving higher.

As of November 19, 2024 Euro non-commercial and commercial futures trading data does not indicate the euro is expected to move higher. Overall, intermarket futures trading data currently indicates the U.S. Dollar is expected to move higher.

Posted on

Euro: Descending Broadening Wedge

On April 28, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated the Euro would continue to follow a descending triangle pattern. Current Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is changing direction for a move upward. This is reflected within the context of a descending broadening wedge shown below. The Euro is expected to move up to the 120 range as the US Dollar moves lower.

Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: British Pound Commercial Traders

On January 20, 2024 it was noted that futures traders were still not positioned for the U.S. Dollar to move to higher levels. Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations currently indicate British Pound commercial traders are in the process of positioning for the U.S. Dollar to start moving higher in 2024. Arrows in the charts below show specific points where Commercial Traders have taken significant short positions in the British Pound over the last thirteen years in preparation for a rise in the U.S. Dollar.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Euro/US Dollar: Futures Trader Positions

A review of Engrbytrade™ futures trader positions indicates the Euro is expected to continue a long term decline going into 2024 and 2025. Engrbytrade™ Euro futures trading data calculation results from July 21, 2023 are similar to the results received on April 13, 2018 and January 29, 2021, as shown in the first chart below.  U.S. Dollar calculations also indicate that futures traders are still not positioned for a move in the U.S. Dollar to higher levels, as shown in the second chart.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold/US Dollar: Indirect Signal

Daily engrbytrade™ Gold to U.S. Dollar calculations on December 6, 2023 gave an indirect signal that aligned with a stock market peak that is similar to what occurred on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021.  The declines noted below show what occurred after receiving the indirect Gold to U.S. Dollar signals on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021.

This observation also aligns with S&P500 traders positioning for a decline, as noted on November 20, 2023.

Dow:
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -35.27%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -16.125%

NDX
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -22.92%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -32.33%

S&P500
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -31.71%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -21.76%

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: Abrupt Change

Weekly engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations over the last two weeks indicates there has been an abrupt change in futures trader positions of U.S Dollars that is similar to what occurred in November 2010. The following charts provide some perspective on what is expected over the next several months. This change also aligns with future expectations of silver moving higher, as noted on September 24, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: British Pound Leading Indicator

As of August 29, 2023 futures traders accumulated an extremely large number of positions in the British Pound that are similar to what they accumulated in July 2014. Using this data as a leading indicator the end result of this accumulation is an expectation of a sharp decline in the British Pound, along with a corresponding sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar in 2023 and 2024. Using the 2014 U.S. Dollar structure, a move up to 150 over the next 12 months would be in line with related Fibonacci calculations. This will have a significant deflationary impact on major currencies and commodities in 2023 and 2024.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

US Dollar: 2023 Accumulation Continues

Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation.  As of 06:56 AM EST the US Dollar held a 68% bullish rating over the last three days. It is not reflected in news reports indicating traders are planning to continue selling the Dollar. This ongoing accumulation period is expected to provide a move higher, just as it did in 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Interest Rates/Dollar: Velocity of Money

It was recently noted that the velocity of money and money supply have not been this low since 1932 when Great Depression unemployment was 23%, GDP growth was -13% and the annual inflation rate was -11% along with 1700 banks failing. The current situation appears to be much different according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing an unemployment rate of 3.7%, inflation rate of 5.3% as of May 2023, along with three bank failures in the first half of 2023, including First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank.

A review of Federal Funds Effective Rate hikes since 2009 shows the current economic situation will change dramatically over the next three years based on the +4.86% change in the Fed Funds rate since March 2022. The Velocity of M2 Money Stock is expected to continue its decline, as it did between Q3 2006 and Q3 2009. This will include a prolonged decline in the Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ along with a recession at best between 2023 and 2026.

January 1999 (4.63%) to July 2000 (6.54%) = +1.91%
June 2004(1.03%) to August 2006 (5.25%) = +4.22 %
December 2015 (0.24%) to April 2019 (2.42) = +2.18%
March 2022 (0.20) to May 2023 (5.06) = +4.86%

References:
Velocity of Money: Definition, Formula, and Examples
Money Supply Growth Falls to Depression-Era Levels for Second Month in April
Timeline of the Great Depression
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review; M2 and Monetary Policy September /October 1989, Robert L Hetzel, page 15.
Bank Failures in Brief – 2023

Disclaimer

Posted on

Bitcoin/Dollar: The Future of Money

The Future of Money
Eswar Prasad, WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, June 2023

Go to the 32:30 mark:
“You can have programmability. Units of Central Bank Digital Currency with expiry dates. You could have, as I argue in my book a potentially better than some people might see, or a darker world where a Government decides that units of Central Bank money can be used to purchase some things, but not other things that are deemed less desirable….”

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

Bitcoin/Dollar: Banks Accumulation of Bitcoin

On June 28, 2023 daily calculations indicated the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. When the Dollar moves higher bitcoin will move lower, as shown in the chart below. During this move the Engrbytrade™ bitcoin model indicates bitcoin will move below 10,000. This will allow major banks to accumulate bitcoin and use it as a bank reserve for future central bank requirements. Upon completion of the banks accumulation of bitcoin at lower levels, bitcoin is then expected to move well above its November 2021 high in the coming years, just as the Euro moved from 0.56 in February 1985 to 1.40 in September 1992.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer