Category: Dow

On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Based on the identification of a Dow turning point occurring by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day), as noted on December 29, 2019, a decline is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020.  Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow should decline to 20,044 (+/- 1.5%) by March 10, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).  Note that volatility is expected to increase significantly during this decline.

(Disclaimer)

Current data indicates the Dow Jones is expected to reach a turning point by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).  Once this 90 year structure is complete, a long term decline should start and take the Dow below 6,000 by October 2022.

The Dow Jones Index crossed it long-term structural design limit on Friday, December 20, 2019 as it moved through 28,455.  It is possible for the Dow to stay in this range until mid-January 2020 before starting a long-term decline.

The current broadening top formation in the Dow is developing an ominous structural feature.  Based on this structure, a rapid move to the upside going into mid-January could present significant downside risk.  If the Fed follows through with their $500 billion liquidity intervention in an attempt to avoid another December 2018 decline, the result could lead to an extremely unstable Dow structure in the first quarter of 2020.

The decline discussed in Dow vs Aramco on Nov. 3, 2019 is still expected based on a move up from October 24, 2019 that was extended three days by Market Makers.  Friday’s move up in the Dow to 28,000 provided Exchange Insiders with an opportunity to sell to the public as media outlets manipulated retail investor expectations with optimistic news.  A decline is still expected to start by November 19, 2019 +/- 1 trading day and continue until December 24, 2019 when the NYSE closes at 1 p.m. EST.  This decline now has the potential to reach 24,200 +/- 1%.

Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019.  This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019.  A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.

Prior to any significant decline in the stock market, Aramco is expected to complete an initial public offering by December 11, 2019.

Saudi Aramco shares to start trading in December

The October 1, 2019 gap down at 10:00 a.m. (EST) in the Dow 30 Futures was filled today (October 15, 2019) with the Dow 30 Futures moving above 26,986.5 at 10:29 a.m. (EST).  This structure clears the way for a decline over the next 18 days.  Based on this confirmation, final structural calculations indicate the NYSE Dow 30 index is expected to decline to a level of 24,091.99 (+/-1%) by November 8, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).

(Disclaimer)

A majority of the gap down identified on 10/6/19 was filled today.  A down day is expected on Monday followed by an up day on Tuesday to fill the remainder of the gap.  Tuesday’s peak will initiate the start of a decline going into November.

Time is short for Market Makers.  The latest calculations indicate a turning point in the Dow by Monday, October 14, 2019 (+/- 1 day).  Preliminary calculations show the Dow is expected to decline to 24,527 (+/-1%) by November 6, 2019, and then move upward for ten days before the next turn to continue the decline.
(Disclaimer)

A gap down occurred in the Dow futures between 26,986.5 and 26,956 on October 1, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EST).   The Dow Index algorithm is expected to move the Dow up and fill this gap by November 11, 2019.  Final computer model adjustments show the Dow dropping to 22,300 (+/- 1.5%) before December 31, 2019.

Today’s move in the Dow’s structure indicates a significant move to the downside is planned. If the Dow moves up to 26,900 (+/-0.5%) by October 11, 2019 (+/-1 trading day), a high probability exits for the Dow to decline to 23,045 (+/-1%) before December 31, 2019.

As of the close on October 1, 2019, the Dow is expected to move higher over the next 8 (+/-1) trading days before turning down. There is a very high probability (80% chance) that the Dow will hit a low of 25,928 (+/-1%) before November 5, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). There is also a 60% chance that the Dow will hit 24,951 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019.
(Disclaimer)

Based on current futures trading data calculations, a significant amount of potential energy exists in the financial system to support a sharp decline in the Dow before the end of 2019. This decline could start as early as September 30, 2019 and move the Dow down to levels last seen during the week of December 17, 2018. A sharp rally is also expected to follow this decline with a recovery of at least 60%, followed by another decline. The volatility Index will move to extremely high levels during this time.

(Disclaimer)

A daily high of 27,272.17 occurred at 11:39 a.m. on September 19, 2019. This was within 0.5% of the projected closing high of 27,386.27 and one trading day earlier than expected, as noted on September 17, 2019. This peak is expected to be the starting point for a long term decline.

The Dow is on track day-for-day toward 27,738.40 (+/- 1.0%) with a peak by September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this peak, the Dow is still expected to start a long term decline with the first short leg down to 24,870 (+/-1.0%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). If there are any changes to this scenario prior to September 24, 2019, they will be posted.

Short term calculations confirm a very high probability exists for the Dow to peak on September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). From September 24, 2019 a steady long-term decline in the Dow is expected to occur over the next two years. Minor adjustments have been made to the short term model shown below.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.3.1)
Dow closing price on August 30, 2019: 26,403.28
The Dow is expected to:
Move up to 27,738.40 (+/- 1.0%) by September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move down to 24,870 (+/-1%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move up to 26,558 (+/-1%) by November 19, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move down to 23,505 (+/-1%) by December 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

Calculations based on the actions of market makers and structures they create, reveals a truncated rally with a peak expected in September, 2019. Extreme volatility will be the norm in the last quarter of 2019. Due to this volatility, calculations shown below are preliminary and are subject to change as Market Makers incorporate their adjustments. Overall, a decline in the Dow is expected to continue well into 2020.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.3)
Dow closing price on August 23, 2019: 25,628.90
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 27,605 (+/- 1.0%) by September 20, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
2. Move down to 24,870 (+/-1%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 26,558 (+/-1%) by November 19, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Move down to 23,505 (+/-1%) by December 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

With today’s decline, preliminary model calculations show a market peak occurring on September 18, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day), during options expiration week. This peak is earlier than expected and indicates Market Makers may be adjusting their plans to start driving markets lower in early October. Until then, calculations will be reviewed daily to see if any adjustments are needed.

Today’s short term pullback was a repeat performance of August 14, 2019 and provided Market Makers with the opportunity to accumulate additional inventory in order to move the Dow higher in September.

The August 18, 2019 gap in the futures market was filled today. Time to move up again.