Aramco has decided to move forward with their IPO near the market’s all-time high. A sign that the top is very close.
Dow: October Peak
A review of additional data with the recent discussion surrounding GE indicates a truncated rally going into October. The following model reflects extreme volatility over the next few months. If the Dow aligns with the first three moves noted below, there is a high probability a steep decline will follow in the fourth move.
Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.2)
Dow closing price on August 16, 2019: 25,886.01
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 27,605 (+/-1.0%) by October 9, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2. Decline to 23,890 (+/-2%) by November 18, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 25,952 (+/-2%) by December 3, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to 16,563 (+/-2%) by , January 17, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Dow: Exchange Insider Accumulation
A significant amount of stock in the Technology Sector was accumulated by Exchange Insiders over the last ten trading days. This accumulation is reflected in the latest computer model run and indicates the Dow is now projected to peak by October 9, 2019 (+/-1 trading day) with a level of 29,923 (+/-1%). The Current Projected Scenario Model will be revised at a later date to reflect this change.
Dow’s Final Move Up
The Dow is expected to move higher over the next two and one-half weeks. Based on structural and timeline analysis, “Management” expects Financial Engineers and Market Makers to complete this long term Dow Project by Tuesday, August 27, 2019 (+/-1.5 days) with a closing price of 29,923 (+/-1.0%) prior to starting the deconstruction process. If they do not meet their price target, the end date will remain the same.
Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.1)
Dow closing price on August 9, 2019: 26,287.44
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 29,923 (+/-1.0%) on August 27, 2019 (+/-1.5 trading days).
2. Decline to 25,733 (+/-2%) on September 27, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 27,534 (+/-2%) on October 8, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to 18,034 (+/-2%) on October 23, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Dow: Gap Down
The “gap down” in the Dow today is part of a structural project that contains a prerequisite for a sharp move down prior to moving higher. Today’s gap will be filled on the way to a new closing high by August 30, 2019, as noted below.
The Dow is expected to move up to 29,923 (+/-1.0%) by August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
The Current Projected Scenario Model#2019-4 will be revised and published at a later date.
Dow: Preliminary Dow Model Forecast
Historical data has provided sufficient information to develop the following Preliminary Dow Model forecast. If the Dow continues its projected path to August 30, 2019, this model has a very high probability of occurring. Since this work is preliminary, revisions may be necessary as the Dow moves through August.
Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.0)
Dow closing price on July 19, 2019: 27,154.20
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 28,555 (+/-1.3%) on August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2. Decline to 26,612 (+/-2%) on September 27, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 27,815 (+/-2%) on October 9, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to hit a daily low of 15,855 (+/-3%) on October 23, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Dow: Structure Adjustments
Structural calculations currently show market makers adjusted their move upward in the Dow to a peak of 28,555 (+/-1.3%) by August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). In addition to this, Commercial Traders are coordinating efforts to set up a decline in the British Pound and continue moving the Ten Year Note Interest Rate below 2.0%.
Dow: Post Options Expiration
The Dow is expected to move sideways until “Options Expiration” on July 19, 2019. Upon completion of this option expiration period, watch for the Dow to move higher into the end of August.
Dow: 48 Year Dow Structure
The 48 year Dow structure represented above provides a perspective that is proportional to numerous large and small historic examples. This 48 year structure is expected to be complete by August 30, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day), or 48 years after Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, preventing foreign governments from exchanging their dollars for gold. Three years later the U.S. initiated the Petrodollar system.
Dow: Low Volatility in July
The upcoming month of July will be uneventful for the Dow. The Dow is expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow range for approximately three weeks after July 4, 2019, before moving higher in August.
Dow: Long Term Peak in August
The current rate of ascent for the Dow indicates Market Makers are running behind schedule. This would place the Dow near 30,400 (+/-2%) by August 30, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day) and close the gap on the subsequent decline. The peak in August will be followed by a decline that will last until the end of October 2019. The model has been updated, as shown below.
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Up to 30,400 (+/-2%) by August 30, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
2. Down to 21,100 (+/-5%) by October 28, 2019
Dow: Moving Upward
Based on today’s closing Dow, it looks like Market Makers will relinquish the need for a decline. Expect a move upward over the next two months.
Dow: Limited Time for a Decline
With a limited amount of time remaining for a brief decline, the Dow is expected to drop into a range between 25,800 and 25,600 during the week of June 17, 2019 before moving higher.
Dow: Pullback
Look for a brief decline starting the week of June 10, 2019. The Dow is expected to drop into a range between 25540 and 25380 before moving higher.
Dow: Final Move Upward
During the week of May 27, 2019, Market Makers used a structured approach in trading Dow stocks to stay on a predetermined path. The course has been set for the remainder of 2019. Market Makers will now push the Dow higher in order to reach 32,976 by August 30, 2019. The peak in August will be followed by a decline that will last until the end of October 2019. During the month of October, the Dow is expected to decline between October 9, 2019 and October 28, 2019 with a significant collapse between October 21, 2019 and October 28, 2019. The following model has been updated.
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Up to 32,976 (+/-2%) by August 30, 2019
2. Down to 12,900 by October 28, 2019
Note:
If you compare a 1970 to 2019 Dow chart with the South Sea Company chart, shown above, we are very close to the peak.
Dow: Market Status Report
Market Makers took advantage of current events to push the Dow lower one day earlier than planned. The low in the Dow came within 1.6% of the price target shown below. A move upward is expected to reach 26,235(+/-2%) by June 7, 2019. If the Dow fails to close on or above 26,133 by June 4, 2019, there is a high probability that a decline much bigger than what is shown below could be set in motion starting on June 7, 2019 (+/- 1 day) and continuing through June 21, 2019 (+/- 1 day).
Dow Status:
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Down to 25,087 (+/-2%) by May 24, 2019 (+/-1 day)
Actual: May 23, 2019; Dow Low 25,490.47 (within 1.6% of May 24th target)
2. Up to 26,235 (+/-2%) by June 7, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
3. Down to 23794 (+/-2%) by June 21, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
4. Up to 27,000 by July 5, 2019 in preparation for moving the Dow to higher levels
VIX
With an accelerated timeline in place, as discussed on May 15, 2019, VIX model data is showing a swift move upward in June and will align with the Dow declining between June 7, 2019 and June 21, 2019.
Interest Rates
The 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note interest rate computer model is aligning with the accelerated timeline to indicate algorithms in use are now expected to drive the 10 Year Note rate down to 2.0% by June 30, 2019.
Dow: Structures Timeline Update
Based on VIX timeline adjustments noted on May 15, 2019, a revision was made to the following Dow Structure estimates. Volatility will continue to increase through the month of June, resulting in potential revisions to the Dow Structure estimates.
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Down to 25,087 (+/-2%) by May 24, 2019 (+/-1 day)
2. Up to 26,235 (+/-2%) by June 7, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
3. Down to 23,794 (+/-2%) by June 21, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
4. Up to 27,000 by July 5, 2019 in preparation for moving the Dow to higher levels
Dow: Precautionary Note
If the Dow fails to close on or above 26,133 by June 4, 2019, there is a high probability that a significant decline could be set in motion on June 7, 2019 (+/- 1 day) and continue through the month of June.
Dow: Structures Update
Acceleration of the Market Makers timeline on May 13, 2019 forced a revision to the Dow Structure estimates. The latest update is shown below.
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Down to 25,300 (+/-2%) by May 23, 2019 (+/-1 day)
a. Actual close: 25,325 on May 13, 2019
2. Up to 26,400 (+/-2%) by May 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
3. Down to 24,800 (+/-2%) by June 4, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
4. Up to 27,000 by July 5, 2019 in preparation for moving the Dow to higher levels
Dow: Accelerated Schedule
Market Makers accelerated their schedule to reach a Dow range of 25,300 (+/-2%) on May 13, 2019, as noted in the Building Dow Structures post on May 11, 2019 by optimizing media discussions on trade tariffs.
Dow: Building Dow Structures
Market Makers are taking advantage of negative news from various media outlets for the purpose of building structures needed to accumulate additional inventory (e.g., stocks) before moving prices significantly higher during the last half of 2019. The following estimates for the Dow are expected over the next two months.
Market Makers will Move the Dow:
1. Down to 25,300 (+/-2%) by May 23, 2019 (+/-1 day)
2. Up to 26,400 (+/-2%) by June 18, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
3. Down to 24,700 (+/-2%) by July 12, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
4. Up to 27,000 by September 2019 in preparation for moving the Dow to higher levels
Dow: Long Term Perspective
Major Commercial Trader’s continue to support a move that will send the Dow Jones Index higher. Based on this, a review of the long-term outlook was warranted using an index model constructed of multiple historical derivative structures that align with the current Dow pricing model. The results revealed a significant move to the upside is expected with the Dow hitting its peak in 2021. This long-term move is not unusual and occurs on a regular basis in multiple markets. There will be pullbacks along the way, but algorithms will continue to run, independent of external forces, until the program is complete in mid-2021. At that point a significant decline is expected to start.
Dow: Models Reset
Additional research indicates major commercial traders intervened and initiated a program for the purpose of driving the Dow to higher levels. One short decline in the Dow is expected to occur by May 27, 2019, followed by another before July 17, 2019. Upon completion of the two brief declines, the Dow is expected to start moving to significantly higher levels over the next two years. Based on data received to date, there is a 90% chance this move will occur. A new model will need to be developed to track this move.
Dow: Market Adjustments
Market adjustments, such as Japanese holidays noted below, and the impact of Palladium prices on Nasdaq companies have been incorporated into the following short term projected scenario.
Current Short Term Projected Scenario (Model #2019-3, Rev.1a)
Dow closing price on April 18, 2019: 26,559.54
Dow declines to June 17, 2019 (+/- 1 day)
Projected close: 19,439.23 (+/-1%)
Between April 27, 2019 and May 6, 2019, Japanese markets will be closed for a series of national holidays. Indications point to a peak in the Nikkei on April 24, 2019 (+/- 1 day) followed by a long decline going into January 2020. This decline is expected to run in tandem with a drop in the Dow Jones Index.
Dow: Options Expiration
Structures for a turn by April 10, 2019 have been built and a move to lower levels is still expected. Calculations indicate that plans are in place for the Dow to continue moving sideways going into options expiration week. Based on Market Maker actions up to this point a decline is expected to start by April 17, 2019. Vix calculations confirm a decline is planned for April, May, and June 2019.