Dot Com Bubble Wall Street Documentary
December 2, 2018
Today you can substitute “Dot Com bubble” with “Artificial Intelligence bubble”.
Dow/Interest Rates: September 26, 2018
Intermarket futures trading data 10-Yr note calculations indicate that on May 23, 2023 the Dow was in a structural position similar to where it was on September 26, 2018. A 23% decline is still expected, as noted on May 21, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ/Dow: 2023 vs 1930
The development of parabolic structures is progressing. An Engrbytrade™ model representation of parabolic structures provides a comparison between the 1913 – 1933 Dow structure and 1993 – 2023 Dow structure. This parabolic structure also crosses over to the NASDAQ Composite, as shown below. A sharp decline in the NASDAQ is expected in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1971 vs 2023
Between April 28, 1971 and August 10, 1971, the following 1971 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 839.60 on August 10, 1971 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between late August 1971 and early September 1971 before starting a decline that would end on November 23, 1971.
Between December 1, 2021 and October 13, 2022 the 2021 – 2023 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 30,038 on October 13, 2022 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between November 2022 and May 2023. It appears the Dow is in the process of repeating the 1971 structure shown below. Using this model, the Dow is expected to move down to 25,738 by mid- July 2022. This 23% decline would be twice as large as the 11.5% decline from October 7, 1971 (901.8) to November 23, 1971 (798).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Machine Selling
Markets Are About to Be Hit With a Wave of Machine Selling Sending Stocks Crashing as Momentum Wanes
Dow: May 13, 2023 Calculation Update
On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 31,465 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate Dow algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 30,808 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: 1973 Point 14
Based on the 1973 Model Representation update shown below, the Dow and S&P500 are still within range of Point #14. It was observed that computers initiated a series of repetitive programs during the last week of April 2023. This is similar to what occurred during the second week of February 2023. A decline is still expected.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/Dow: Decline to May 15, 2023
The declining S&P500 and Dow 1-hour futures charts are in the process of developing chart structures that are similar to 1-hour futures charts developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Based on this development, the S&P500 futures chart is expected to move down to 3887 by May 15, 2023 and the Dow futures chart is expected to move down to 31,465 by May 15, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: April 2022 vs April 2023
The Dow daily chart (and 1-hr futures chart) structure between March 1, 2022 and April 20, 2022 is similar to the S&P500 chart structure developed between March 6, 2023 and May 1, 2023. Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations and technical indicators show that upon completion a Dow structure this week that is similar to what was developed between March 1, 2022 and April 21, 2022, a sharp decline is expected with the Dow and S&P500 moving below 31,874 and 3,855 respectively.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: April 27, 2023 Retracement
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and 85% of technical indicators indicate the chart structure between April 14, 2023 and April 27, 2023 is similar to the chart structure between November 8, 2021 and November 16, 2021 with a 73.6% retracement. A decline is expected to continue.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1974 Model Page Update
The 1974 Dow Model Page has been updated with the following charts. A comparison of the 1973 and 2022 – 2023 charts illustrates how Market Makers are currently using algorithms designed to repeat a decline similar to 1973. This decline will continue and ultimately lead to a repeat of a 1974 style decline in 2024.
Dow: Change in Direction II
On April 18, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculations (from April 17, 2023) indicated a change in direction was imminent. A second daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures change in direction signal occurred on April 18, 2023. The last time two signals occurred in two days was on October 10 – 11, 2022. This was followed by a 34 trading day rise. The two signals from April 17 – 18, 2023 indicate a sharp decline is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: April 18, 2023
In the March 27 – April 13 Dow Summary post it was noted that the 1-hour chart was expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower. On April 18, 2023 at 06:45 a.m. the Dow futures chart hit a high of 34,279, well within the 1% range and just 108 points from the target of 34,387. It is still possible for the Dow to briefly move up and touch 34,279 this week before declining.
Dow: Change in Direction
Daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculation results indicate a change in direction is imminent. This signal is similar to the change in direction calculation results from February 1, 2023. Technical analysts should note that the following indicators for the Dow are peaking: CCI, Stochastic %D, Williams %R, MFI, and RSI.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: March 27 – April 13 Summary
On March 27, 2023, it was noted that algorithms had been developing a 1-hour chart structure that was similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
On March 29, 2023 it appeared the Dow was on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Based on its rate of speed, it was expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) (33,280 – 33,952} by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. The Dow futures price crossed the 33,616 mark on April 3, 2023, one week earlier than expected, and continued to move sideways within its 1% range.
On March 31, 2023 it was observed that the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. was similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow was expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) (33,963 – 34,649) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day). On April 12, 2023 the Dow futures moved into the lower 1% range of 34,306.
This summary concludes that the 1-hour chart is expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower.
Dow/S&P500: April – December 1974 Update
On February 25, 2023 Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 illustrated the expectation that this year would be similar to April through December 1974. Updated estimates indicate the end result would be near 18,000 for the Dow and 2400 for the S&P500. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1974 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Positioning for Distributions
In addition to S&P500 positioning for distributions, daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between March 6, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 19, 2021 through November 11, 2021, as well as December 8, 2021 through January 6, 2021. This positioning indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Symmetrical Collapse Continues
The Dow briefly moved outside of its Symmetrical Collapse Structure between April 3, 2023 and April 4, 2023, as shown below. On April 4, 2023 Dow futures moved within 86 points of the lower range of the target noted on March 31, 2023. The Dow is expected to continue moving lower within this structure during 2023. On February 25, 2023 it was noted that the end result will be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow.
Dow: March 31 Target
The rate of change has accelerated. As of 4:00 p.m. ET, the Dow futures price is within 1.1% of its target noted on March 31, 2023.
Dow: 2021 Algorithms
As noted on March 29, 2023, Dow algorithms initiated a chart structure on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET to recreate a Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Since that time, machine driven algorithms include calculations for the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. This is similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow is expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Fast Track
Starting on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET Dow futures have been on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. The Dow is currently in a similar position to where it was on May 25, 2022. Based on the current rate of speed, it is expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. This move would keep the Dow on the edge of the 2020 – 2023 Dow Symmetrical Collapse model boundary. Data will continue to be monitored for any changes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: October 2022 vs March 2023
Since March 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET it appears that machine driven algorithms have been developing a 1-hour chart structure that is similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Although the current 1-hour chart trajectory is similar to October 2022, volatility in March 2023 is significantly higher. In the past It has also been observed that machine driven algorithms start developing a chart structure from a previous period, but may shift to using a chart structure from a different time period as prices move higher. Speed of travel and volatility will be monitored for updates if needed.
Dow/Silver: Dow vs Silver 2008 – 2023
It should be noted that the collapse in 2023 is expected to be significantly worse than 2008. Bear Stearns failed in March of 2008, Indy Mac failed in July 2008 with the majority of institutions failing in September 2008. In March 2023 alone, several institutions have already failed, received a bailout, or are in the process of merging. This is an ominous sign of things to come. Few remember that during the last half of 2008 when the financial system was collapsing, institutions and traders were selling precious metals to cover their losses. The charts below show a comparison between 2008 and 2023 for the Dow and Silver.
2008
Bear Stearns – March 16, 2008
Indy Mac, F.S.B, Pasadena, CA – July 11, 2008
Fanny Mae – September 6, 2008
Freddy Mac – September 6, 2008
Merrill Lynch & Co. – September 14, 2008
Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008
AIG – September 16, 2008
WaMu – September 25, 2008
2023
Silvergate Capital – March 8, 2023 – shut down
Silicon Valley Bank – March 10, 2023 – bankrupt
Signature Bank – March 10, 2023 – failed
First Republic – March 17, 2023 – bailout rescue package
Credit Suisse – March 19, 2023 – Merger with UBS
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Timeline Reset
Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023. Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Rate of Rise Accelerating
Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.