Based on the falling wedge pattern noted on March 18, 2023 and an update of preliminary futures structural data, a 28 trading day (+/- 1 trading day) rally to April 27, 2023 appears to have started today (March 20, 2023). This is similar to the move up between October 13, 2022 and November 23, 2022. Following this rally another decline is expected to continue into the end of 2023.
Dow: Falling Wedge Pattern
The current falling wedge shown in the first chart is a repeat of September 2022. Completion of this wedge is expected to fill a gap located between 31,517 and 31,523 that was created in the Dow futures chart on October 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m. EST. A move upward will start when this is complete.
Dow: 5-Min Chart
Watch the 5-minute futures chart. It appears an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading chart was initiated on March 17, 2023 at 4:25 a.m. EST. It is currently on point 6. This move down could fill the 5-min chart gap developed above 31,517 on 10/25/22 at 9:45 a.m. before moving higher.
Dow: March 15 Gap
A gap was created in the Dow 5-minute futures chart on March 15, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. EST. A brief drop below 31,691 to fill this gap should be anticipated before moving higher. Volatility will continue.
Dow: April 13, 2023
Preliminary structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up until April 13, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). This is the time frame when Federal Reserve Meeting minutes from March 21-22, 2023 would be scheduled for release on April 12, 2023. Additional data will be required to determine a price target range.
Technical analysts should note that October 3, 2022 – October 4, 2022 and March 16, 2023 contain similar values for the following lower tier technical indicators. Default settings are included.
Commodity channel Index CCI (periods =14)
Stochastic %D (periods=15,%K avg=3,%D=3)
Volume Oscillator OSCV (fast avg=9, slow avg=18)
Relative Momentum Index RMI (periods=20,momentum=5)
Relative Strength Index RSI (periods=15)
Dow: Futures Gap Filled
On March 13, 2023 a 3 point gap was created in the Dow futures index at 8:55 a.m. EST as the Dow started to move higher. On March 15, 2023 that gap was filled when the Dow dropped to 31,774 at 6:50 a.m. EST.
Dow: March 14, 2023 Gap Filled
A gap created at the NYSE market open on March 14, 2023 was filled by 3:12 p.m. EST when the Dow fell to 31,828. This was followed by a rally back up to a close of 32,155.40. Based on Engrbytrade daily calculations and sentiment readings for the last two trading days, a potential exists for another rally similar to what occurred between September 30, 2021 and November 8, 2021.
Dow/S&P500: Eight Point Decline
Starting at 11:41 a.m. today, the Dow and S&P500 1-minute chart followed the Engrbytrade eight point trading model shown below. This is typically followed by a rally.
Dow/S&P500: Put/Call Ratio Update
Update. Rally to continue.
Dow/S&P500: Rally to Follow
Put/Call Ratio = 0
Rally to Follow.
Dow: A Move to 31,071
It appears an attempt may be made for a move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%). This was originally noted on March 8, 2023. A move up to 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is still expected, regardless of a drop to 31,071.
Dow: Declining Trend and Collapse
Dow futures hit a low of 31,787 on March 10, 2023. This was 1.3% above a projected high in a target range of 31,071 (+/- 1%) (31,381 – 30,760) on March 10, 2023. It is possible that the Dow may move slightly lower, but daily engrbytrade™ calculations show the Dow turning and moving above its high on December 13, 2022 (34712 on the NYSE). A target of 35,157 (+/- 1 %) is expected. This target is based on Dow calculation results between January and March 2023 being similar to what was produced between October and November of 2021, as discussed on March 7, 2023. A declining trend, similar to 2022, is expected for the first half of 2023. Ultimately, a market collapse planned for September 26, 2023 will take the Dow below 14,000, as shown on February 25, 2023.
Between March and August of 2023 various corporations, banks, and/or brokerages, etc. will fail, just as Enron, WorldCom, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers did during 2001, 2002, and 2008 prior to markets collapsing between September and October. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank are just the beginning.
Dow: Fear and Greed 25
As of March 10, 2023 at 11:00 AM ET the Fear and Greed Index was 25. Looking back, the index hit 25 on September 23, 2022 just five days prior to the Dow hitting a low on September 30, 2022. Markets started moving higher in October 2022.
Dow: Everything is Planned
The decline in 2022 is a reflection of what occurred during 1973. The chart below shows a trend line of 33.72 degrees below the x-axis and it appears this will be used during the first half of 2023, as it was in 1974. A move down to 31,071 (+/- 1%) is still expected to occur. Everything is planned.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 31,071 Update
The projected move to 31,071 is ahead of schedule and accelerating. A date of intersection with 31,071 is now expected occur on March 15, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day). Fear is building at a rapid pace.
Dow: 31,071
Engrbytrade Dow futures structural calculations indicate the decline is expected to continue. Using its current rate of acceleration a projected target of 31,071 (+/- 1%) is expected by March 21, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow/S&P500: 2021 vs 2023
Between October 19, 2021 and November 22, 2021 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculation results were found to be similar to results produced between January 19, 2023 and March 6, 2023. This comparison indicates the Dow January 2023 to March 2023 structure is expected to be a prelude for a decline over the next several months. It would also align with the expectation of a decline discussed on February 25, 2023. Similarities were also found for the S&P500 between October 20, 2021 to November 19, 2021 and January 17, 2023 to February 28, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Jerome Powell Testimony
Just in time for a market decline. Timing is everything.
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Wednesday March 8 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
Dow: Brief Rally
The 1-hour Dow futures chart is currently forming a falling wedge pattern that is similar to what developed between August 22, 2022 and August 24, 2022. Based on research from February 28, 2023, a brief rally is expected prior to a sharp decline similar to what occurred after August 26, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: February 28 Gap
Be aware that a small gap appeared at the market open on February 28, 2023. This gap is expected to be filled with a move above 32,814 on the NYSE and 32,981 in the 15-minute futures chart, before the Dow moves to lower levels.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: March 2023 Decline
Daily intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the Dow and S&P500 are expected to continue to decline in March 2023 based on comparable calculation results from February 2, 2022 and August 24, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: 1966 – 1973
Market Makers have successfully managed to develop Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 that are similar to chart structures between 1966 and 1973. The end result is also expected to be similar to 1974. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1973 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023. Preliminary estimates indicate the end result would be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow and below 2000 for the S&P500.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Descending Triangle
The chart below is a representation of the current Dow futures chart structure with a descending triangle pattern that typically precedes a decline. If this structure continues to develop, a move up to its upper trend line is possible before dropping through the lower horizontal line and continuing with a decline described on February 22, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 2008 vs 2023 Structures
In the charts below it has been observed that structures between November 1, 2022 and February 22, 2023 appear to be similar to what was developed between July 11, 2008 and September 5, 2008. Although, this comparison alone does not confirm a decline is expected, it does provide a framework to conduct structural calculations showing an upcoming decline to 25,777. This would be a 22.2% decline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Fed Meeting Minutes
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate market movements are determined prior to the issuance of Fed Meeting Minutes.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
