Category: Dow

Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations for May 31, 2023 show a record decline reading that is the highest since calculations began in January 2019. It was also observed that a significant number of large block trades in the tech sector crossed the tape.

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Between April 28, 1971 and August 10, 1971, the following 1971 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 839.60 on August 10, 1971 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between late August 1971 and early September 1971 before starting a decline that would end on November 23, 1971.

Between December 1, 2021 and October 13, 2022 the 2021 – 2023 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 30,038 on October 13, 2022 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between November 2022 and May 2023. It appears the Dow is in the process of repeating the 1971 structure shown below. Using this model, the Dow is expected to move down to 25,738 by mid- July 2022.  This 23% decline would be twice as large as the 11.5% decline from October 7, 1971 (901.8) to November 23, 1971 (798).

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On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 31,465 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate Dow algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 30,808 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).

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Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and 85% of technical indicators indicate the chart structure between April 14, 2023 and April 27, 2023 is similar to the chart structure between November 8, 2021 and November 16, 2021 with a 73.6% retracement. A decline is expected to continue.

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The 1974 Dow Model Page has been updated with the following charts. A comparison of the 1973 and 2022 – 2023 charts illustrates how Market Makers are currently using algorithms designed to repeat a decline similar to 1973. This decline will continue and ultimately lead to a repeat of a 1974 style decline in 2024.

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On April 18, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculations (from April 17, 2023) indicated a change in direction was imminent. A second daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures change in direction signal occurred on April 18, 2023. The last time two signals occurred in two days was on October 10 – 11, 2022. This was followed by a 34 trading day rise. The two signals from April 17 – 18, 2023 indicate a sharp decline is expected.

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In the March 27 – April 13 Dow Summary post it was noted that the 1-hour chart was expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower. On April 18, 2023 at 06:45 a.m. the Dow futures chart hit a high of 34,279, well within the 1% range and just 108 points from the target of 34,387. It is still possible for the Dow to briefly move up and touch 34,279 this week before declining.

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Daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculation results indicate a change in direction is imminent. This signal is similar to the change in direction calculation results from February 1, 2023. Technical analysts should note that the following indicators for the Dow are peaking: CCI, Stochastic %D, Williams %R, MFI, and RSI.

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On March 27, 2023, it was noted that algorithms had been developing a 1-hour chart structure that was similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

On March 29, 2023 it appeared the Dow was on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Based on its rate of speed, it was expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) (33,280 – 33,952} by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. The Dow futures price crossed the 33,616 mark on April 3, 2023, one week earlier than expected, and continued to move sideways within its 1% range.

On March 31, 2023 it was observed that the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. was similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow was expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) (33,963 – 34,649) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day). On April 12, 2023 the Dow futures moved into the lower 1% range of 34,306.

This summary concludes that the 1-hour chart is expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower.

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In addition to S&P500 positioning for distributions, daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between March 6, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 19, 2021 through November 11, 2021, as well as December 8, 2021 through January 6, 2021. This positioning indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.

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