Intermarket structural analysis research
Fear & Greed data since August 2022 shows the current position of the index is similar to April 25, 2023, December 6, 2023 and June 13, 2025. So far, it trends well with the S&P500. Markets could turn down as early as July 2026, after the SpaceX IPO. This is a work in progress and additional data will be needed to identify relationships with other indicators.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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History provides some insight to Market Maker activities. One example is Cisco. Based on the 2000 Cisco chart structure there was a period between 1993 and 1998 when Market Makers accumulated a significant amount of inventory. As this occurred there were 2 cycles between 1997 and 1998 before it started to move significantly higher.
It appears Market Makers are repeating their work from 2000. The 2026 Cisco chart reflects a similar structure where Market Makers accumulated inventory between 2010 and early 2016. There were also 2 cycles between 2019 and 2022 before it started to move significantly higher.
At this point it is unknown if Market Makers will continue to use the 2000 structure as a model. If they do it will be an impressive move.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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While the NASDAQ and S&P500 moved up rapidly over the last several weeks investors have not moved to an extreme bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of May 13, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 77.34. Positions are hedged and similar to the last full week of December 2024. Significant moves in technology stocks, geopolitical issues, supply chain problems, and volatility in energy markets are an incentive to pull back from an extremely bullish position.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Once a week a sentiment survey is conducted by AAII Investors. They provide their opinion on the direction of markets over the next six months. When there is a large divergence between Bulls and Bears a turning point is near. This, along with other technical indicators, can be helpful.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Reference: American Association of Individual Investors Survey
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As of May 6, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 96.67. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are leveraged long and still extremely bullish. The current 2026 NAAIM index pattern is similar to late 2024 and near the reading of 98.93 on November 27, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On May 1, 2026 a shooting star appeared in the S&P500 and SPY. Prior to this a bearish engulfing candle appeared on April 21, 2026. This same sequence occurred on February 9, 2023 and February 16, 2023. It was followed by a 5.6% decline in the SPY before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The SP500 and SPY are going into the end of April with:
1. New Intraday Highs
2. SPY Engulfing bearish candle on April 21, 2026
3. Decreasing SPY Volume in April
4. CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio 5-Day Moving Average low on April 17, 2026 (Options Expiration)
5. One SPY big block trade over 2 million shares in April
6. Retail traders were very active in April
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of April 22, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 94.15. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are extremely bullish. Previous bullish positions with similar characteristics are shown below.
Dates with comparative NAAIM readings:
January 17, 2018 – 94.09 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 8, 2020 – 94.16 – quickly followed by a sharp decline
January 6, 2021 – 94.51 – markets continued to move higher
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On April 17, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 5 day moving average dropped to 0.47. This is similar to what occurred on the following dates.
January 24, 2025
May 16, 2025
January 22, 2026
A review of extremely large block trades during each period revealed that very few trades were made during May 2025. This indicated Market Makers did not intend on moving prices lower during that time. Recently there have been a significant number of extremely large block trades crossing the tape during April 2026. This indicates large cap stocks are expected to move lower over the next month or two. Additional work will be needed to follow the trend of option positions and big block trades. If a decline is planned it should move very slowly to avoid a rush of retail selling.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of April 15, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index was 79.49. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are still bullish with data that is similar to what was recorded on August 28, 2024. Markets are expected to move higher based on recent CBOE options positions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On Wednesday, April 8, 2026 stock markets opened higher with a significant gap. In some cases a pull back to fill this gap would be expected. What many investors did not catch is what happened in the previous extended hours session. A steady flow of trades through index derivatives such as SPY, DIA, UPRO, occurred prior to the open on Wednesday. A pull back is possible to fill specific gaps, but unlikely based on the level of trading conducted prior to the 9:30 open.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of April 8, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 69.38. NAAIM data indicates investment managers are bullish. The index, and markets, are expected to continue moving upward in a method that is similar to the last half of 2024. This is based on CBOE option positions during the August 14, 2024 time frame.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The CNN 5-Day average put/call ratio has moved up to 0.94. Previous moves up to this range include 0.95 on August 8, 2024 and 0.95 on April 4, 2025. This is in an extreme range where options trades are being positioned for a turn upward in the S&P500.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On February 7, 2025 it was noted that the S&P500 was expected to follow the 1980 pattern. Since January 29, 2026 the S&P500 has declined 8.6%. Volume has remained relatively constant while the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio and sentiment indicators point to a very short term low. If this is the case, it would appear the S&P500 is following a pattern similar to 2011. Over the next several days, trading activity or geopolitical events should provide clarity to the direction of markets. A nominal decline of 17% is still expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The AAII sentiment survey deserves some attention since it can be a very useful guide. When using the AAII indicator it is not necessarily a matter of whether bulls or bears are totally right or wrong. Results can be mixed. The key is to review how far the two groups opinions separate from one another over time. When both opinions move to extremes, a change in direction should be near. The following charts provide an illustration of how opinions can vary. When they do not move to extremes, additional information is needed to determine the direction of markets.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 66.99 The Index continues to follow the trajectory between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers have adjusted their hedge positions in case of a decline. Institutional Investors have also lowered their expectations for returns in 2026 due to geopolitical risk.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On February 4, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin’s structural point was similar to where the Bitcoin Model was in March 1980. Bitcoin appears to have hit a low as the S&P500 starts to roll over. Just as it did in January 2022. This aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. A bitcoin move to its previous highs would be expected before a significant decline. During this decline bankers and hedge funds would buy as many bitcoins as possible. It is obvious that bankers are attempting to use the Euro as a model to develop bitcoin as a new “digital currency”. Will they be successful? That remains to be seen.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.
Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.
Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The current rising wedge in the S&P500 appears to be very similar to the last half of 2024. This by itself could be something to be concerned about. What is striking are the number of extremely large seven figure block trades that have been crossing the tape since November 2025. As time passes, the trades have been increasing in their appearance and size. This includes companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. This type of activity also happened on a smaller scale in late 2024 and early 2025 prior to the S&P500 decline between February and April.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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