Up until July 2025 Market Makers have been following Apple’s January 2006 to March 2008 chart structure. In addition to this an Engrbytrade™ eight point trading model structure has formed. It is similar to what occurred between May and August of 2008 and was discussed on May 8, 2025.
Technical indicators and big block activity still point to a decline. This includes readings from the NAAIM Index, CNN Fear and Greed Index and CNN Put to Call Options indicator.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On July 9, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 86.28. A review of recent large 7-figure block trading activity in Dow tech stocks is similar to what took place in July 2023. The CNN Fear & Greed Index, as well as the CNN Put to Call Options indicator are also aligning with trading activities that took place in July 2023. Investment Managers have conducted similar positioning activities as they did in June and July 2023. A decline similar to what occurred between August and October 2023 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On February 24, 2024, research found the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF (TLT) appeared to be under accumulation. Extremely large block trades have crossed the tape since October 2023. This level of trading indicates Market Makers are involved.
In addition to this it appears Intel has been under accumulation since August 2024. Market Makers took the opportunity to drop Intel 26% on August 2, 2024 due to a big miss on earnings. Following this decline, extremely large block trades started crossing the tape. This accumulation process is still underway.
In both cases similar accumulation events occurred in 2010 and 2011 before prices started moving higher.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which [Market Makers formerly known as] specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On June 25, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 81.41. This pattern appears to be a repeat performance of June 10, 2020. Movements of the index from May 7, 2025 to June 25, 2025 are similar to what occurred between April 29, 2020 and June 10, 2020. This indicates investment managers are using similar risk management techniques that were applied in 2020. If this is a repeat of 2020, there may be some near term volatility. Based on investment manager positions markets are expected to move higher going into the end of August 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Preliminary measurements indicate a 57.43 degree trend line is supporting the S&P500. On April 17, 2023 CNN Fear & Greed hit 70. This was followed by a rally going into the end of July 2023 on a 57.43 degree trend line. On December 13, 2023 Fear and Greed hit 70 and the S&P500 rallied into April 2024 on a 57.43 degree trend line. The latest Fear and Greed reading of 70 occurred on May 19, 2025. Based on previous results, a rally into September 2025 would be expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The NAAIM Exposure Index reading has moved up to 94.09. This is similar to what occurred on April 17, 2019. On that date the index hit a reading of 93.37 after recovering from a sharp market decline in December 2018. This reading was followed by a 6.12% decline in the S&P500 during May 2019.
In addition to the current NAAIM reading it was noted on June 19, 2025 that the CNN Fear & Greed reading was in a position similar to where it was on December 15, 2022. The Fear & Greed reading in December 2022 was followed by a 5.87% decline in the S&P500.
Based on both readings, a brief decline of approximately 6% in the S&P500 would be expected before moving higher. Volatility should continue to increase over the next 2 to 3 months before breaking out and moving higher.
Note that NAAIM Index readings on April 17, 2019 and June 18, 2025 were recorded during options expiration week.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
At the close on June 18, 2025 CNN Fear & Greed data indicated the S&P500 was in a position similar to where it was on December 15, 2022. Volatility should increase over the next 2 to 3 months before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On May 15, 2025 it was noted that markets were still expected to move higher. As markets moved higher investment managers would adjust their exposure, as needed. On June 4, 2025, investment managers adjusted their exposure in a way that is similar to what occurred on June 10, 2020. This aligns with the S&P500 index, which has a 78.6% retracement formation that is similar to June 2020. The possibility of an increase in volatility is expected over the short term before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
In November 2024 Intel was dropped from the Dow 30 and replaced with NVDA after its decline on very light volume between March 2021 and July 2024. There is a good reason for this. It took Intel out of the day to day spotlight of the news cycle. It also allows Market Makers to accumulate what they need to eventually move prices higher. Over the last several months INTC daily volume has continued to spike with a steady flow of extremely large blocks crossing the tape. A pattern similar to this occurred after 2009. It is unknown at this time what the incentive is for initiating this type of accumulation process, but it could continue over the next few years.
“It is only when they (Specialists currently known as Market Makers) are able to decline on light volume that they can afford to carry the decline to lower prices.” Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The following should provide some perspective on big block trading during the decline in 2025. A 27 day period was selected during the decline in March – April 2025 and September – October 2023. Apple block trades with over 5 million shares were used as a sample base. Results showed the total number of Apple shares traded in March – April 2025 was 49% larger than September – October 2023. Since Market Makers operate a merchandising system, they will have an incentive to distribute this, and other shares accumulated, at much higher prices in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On May 1, 2025 it was noted that a move higher was expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. The upcoming 2025 pattern should be similar to 2019. NAAIM Exposure Index charts shown below indicate investment managers have recently reacted in a manner similar to 2019. This move by itself is not an indication that markets will move higher or lower. But, when asset exposure moves to extremes it is an indication that markets are oversold or overbought.
Markets are still expected to move higher. Confirmation is needed from Indicators, such as the weekly NYSE Hindenburg Omen index. As markets move higher, investment managers will adjust their exposure.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
To provide some context for the current NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.06, a comparison was done between the NAAIM 2019 and 2025 charts. After the S&P500 declined in December 2018, the NAAIM Index moved up to 83.39 on February 6, 2019. After the recent S&P500 decline in April 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 81.06 on March 7, 2025. There were numerous reasons for market declines in 2018 and 2025. But, the reaction from investment managers was the same. Based on similar S&P500 chart structures and investment manager reactions, it appears markets should move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The NAAIM Index hit a reading of 59.92 on April 30, 2025. This is very close to the reading of 59.43 on January 2, 2019. Note that patterns in the Dow during 2024-2025 and 2018-2019 are similar. These structures were developed over a period of time when tariffs were being applied. A move higher is expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. They should follow the 2019 pattern. The charts below illustrate this comparison.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Engrbytrade™ 1929 Dow Model has been updated based on positioning of the S&P500 monthly chart. The S&P500 monthly chart for April 2025 has a bullish long tail candlestick pattern. This is similar to what was recorded in March 1929. This aligns with other bullish indicators discussed in April 2025. Extremely large block trades have also continued to cross the tape. A move up into September and October is expected.
On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.
A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The NAAIM Exposure Index is moving in a direction where a brief pull back in markets could occur. This data also indicates markets are still expected to move higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.
Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.
Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.
Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.
On March 10, 2025 it was reported that hedge funds were unwinding risk just as they did in the early days of COVID. On March 11, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 17. During the trading day the index hit a low of 13. On March 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 68.80. The following NAAIM chart is an update of an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points. This chart illustrates how Fear & Greed Index lows are following a trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move sideways for at least one week. This could last as long as 30 days before moving higher.
In addition to this, the CNN “Safe Haven Demand” chart shown below provides some perspective on the long term performance expectations between stocks and bonds. The last low point was on August 5, 2024.
On March 4, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 22. During the trading day the index hit a low of 14. On March 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 74.96. The following chart provides an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points on top of the NAAIM Exposure Index. This chart illustrates how three out of five Fear & Greed Index lows are in alignment on the same NAAIM trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move higher for the next four months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started movinghigher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.
Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.
The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.
