Intermarket structural analysis research
On February 16, 2026 it was noted that freight transportation and logistics companies stock started to fall due to various reasons. Reasons included the cost of tariffs and AI. This decline is expected to continue and carry over into the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ. The depth of this decline will depend on how much inventory Market Makers need before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 4, 2026 it was noted that Bitcoin’s structural point was similar to where the Bitcoin Model was in March 1980. Bitcoin appears to have hit a low as the S&P500 starts to roll over. Just as it did in January 2022. This aligns with the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. A bitcoin move to its previous highs would be expected before a significant decline. During this decline bankers and hedge funds would buy as many bitcoins as possible. It is obvious that bankers are attempting to use the Euro as a model to develop bitcoin as a new “digital currency”. Will they be successful? That remains to be seen.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
March 6, 2025
Pay attention if Fear & Greed drops below 20 and the 5-day average put/call ratio moves above 90.
Fear & Greed History Lows:
9/29/22 = 14
3/15/23 = 19
10/3/23 = 17
8/5/24 = 16
4/3/25 = 4
11/20/25 = 7
Recent 5-day average put/call ratio
8/8/24 = 0.93
4/9/25 = 1.00
For Non-Commercial Use Only.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of February 25, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 74.93. The Index is currently following a path similar to what occurred between December 24, 2024 and December 31, 2024. Investment Managers are bullish, but they are starting to setup hedge positions in case of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During 1999 and 2000 when technology companies were going parabolic, IBM had a sharp decline in September and October 1999. This was followed by a significant amount of volatility and it eventually collapsed in late 2002. IBM was one of the first stocks to have a significant correction before markets started collapsing in 2000.
Once again, IBM is in the process of repeating their 1999 collapse scenario as technology stocks go parabolic. Big blocks have been crossing the tape since June 2025 as Market Makers distribute their inventory.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 18, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 82.87. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Investment Managers are bullish with their sentiment very close to that of January 22, 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The current rising wedge in the S&P500 appears to be very similar to the last half of 2024. This by itself could be something to be concerned about. What is striking are the number of extremely large seven figure block trades that have been crossing the tape since November 2025. As time passes, the trades have been increasing in their appearance and size. This includes companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. This type of activity also happened on a smaller scale in late 2024 and early 2025 prior to the S&P500 decline between February and April.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 5, 2026 it was noted that Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks were crossing the tape in Airline and Rail stocks as prices moved higher. At this point freight transportation and logistics companies are starting to fall due to various reasons. One is the cost of tariffs and the other is AI. On Friday, February 6, 2026 the Transportation Index RSI hit 73. This was prior to the sharp decline in C. H. Robinson, Expeditors International, and Landstar. Declines are expected to continue through the supply chain.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 11, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 80.61. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Readings this week are also in line with NAAIM values provided on December 25, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 9, 2026 it was observed that during September 2025 Microsoft had multiple $2.0B big blocks crossing the tape. This inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point it appears big blocks are moving out of Apple and into Microsoft. If this continues Microsoft could continue to stay above its lower trend line and provide a repeat performance of the last half of 1999.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Microsoft is one example of how very large hedge funds, Market Makers, etc. move in and out of the market. The current MSFT 28.83 degree trend line is similar to 1999. Between the beginning of March 2025 to mid-April 2025, big blocks in the range $1.3B to $2.0B crossed the tape repeatedly as inventory was accumulated. In September 2025 multiple $2.0B big blocks crossed the tape as this inventory was distributed to large institutions. At this point multiple big blocks in the range above $1.3B to $2.0B have not repetitively crossed the tape in a very short time frame. This may be a repeat of August 1999, but Market Makers will still need to accumulation additional inventory before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 3, 2026 it was noted that the parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. In addition to this a decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 would be expected. This could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Since January 29, 2026, when silver peaked, the S&P500 has started a February 1980 decline pattern. A 17% decline would take the S&P500 down to 5784 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of February 4, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 84.93. The index continues to run below the October 2025 to December 2025 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart. Last week readings were in line with November 24, 2021. This week the index reading of 84.93 is within 3% of the December 21, 2021 reading of 87.87. This trend indicates a decline similar to January 2022 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On February 2, 2026 Market Makers started to focus on transportation index stocks. Big blocks have been crossing the tape this week in Airlines and Rail stocks as prices are rising. It appears to be a repeat performance of November 2, 2021 using a longer timeline. It also aligns with current expectations of a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ during the first quarter of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500 and silver data covering January1980, April 2011 and January 2026 were reviewed for consistent patterns. After the peak in 1980 and 2011 the S&P550 fell between 16.9% and 17%. The parabolic peak in silver during January 2026 is similar to 1980 and 2011. A decline of approximately 17% in the S&P500 is expected and could start within the next 2 to 3 weeks. During this decline, profits from the peak in metals should move into stocks. The S&P500 would then move higher for the remainder of 2026. In addition to this the current VIX chart structure is similar to 2011 providing a leading indicator for a decline in the S&P500.
Data points:
On January 18, 1980 silver hit a record close of 49.45 with the S&P500 closing at 111.07.
On April 28, 2011 silver hit a record close of 48.41 with the S&P500 closing at 1360.48.
On January 29, 2026 silver hit a record high of 115.79 with the S&P500 closing at 6969.01
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 28, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.58. This index is still below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line shown in the following NAAIM chart.
Readings from January 28, 2026 had a standard deviation of 46.41. November 24, 2021 readings showed a standard deviation of 46.63. Using these readings, S&P500 chart structures were measured for their alignment. The following shows that November 24, 2021 and January 28, 2026 S&P500 charts are in alignment. This indicates a pullback in the markets would be expected before mid-April when tax payments are due.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On January 22, 2026 the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index 2 day moving average provided an early warning for a potential market decline. A similar event occurred on January 6, 2025. A second signal occurred on January 21, 2025. This was followed by an S&P500 decline that ended during the week of April 7, 2025. During this decline, Market Maker’s moved in to accumulate inventory for another move to higher levels. This was during the April 2025 lows when extremely large seven figure block trades crossed the tape in big tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, MSFT, and NVDA. Recently, between October 2025 and January 2026, similar large trades occurred as Market Maker’s distributed their inventory to bullish investment managers, hedge funds, pension funds, etc.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
While Institutional Money Managers are bullish Market Maker’s try to hide their actions using algorithms in high frequency trading systems. Their actions are very subtle, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formula reveals their plans in the SPY. Put in the right context, the RSI can show their plans for a decline. The following charts provide an illustration of what occurred in 2022 and 2024 – 2025. The current process started in August 2025 and appears it will continue until markets move lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Bitcoin continues to develop a large structure similar to the 1971 – 1985 Engrbytrade™ Euro model. Since 2020 the S&P500 moved lower during prolonged Bitcoin declines. The exception was 2021. At this point the S&P500 should decline in 2026. This is based on the Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength and Commodity Channel index positions indicating a change in direction is expected. After this decline Bitcoin should move up to its previous highs before starting another decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
In 1980 silver hit its peak on January 18, 1980 with a close of 49.45. The S&P500 started a 16.69% decline 18 trading days after this peak in silver. The 1980 stock market decline was attributed to an early recession.
In 2011 silver hit a peak on April 29, 2011 with a close of 47.95. The S&P500 started a 17.76% decline 68 trading days from the peak in silver. The August 2011 stock market decline was due to Standard & Poor’s downgrading America’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.
Once again silver is reaching new parabolic highs with the CME raising margin rates. When silver peaks, a decline in the range of 17 percent for the S&P500 would be expected. As of today it would come close to filling the gap created on May 12, 2025 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
