Intermarket structural analysis research
The NAAIM Exposure Index below the trend line on April 2, 2025 is in an extreme position similar to where it was on October 25, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.
A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The NAAIM Exposure Index is moving in a direction where a brief pull back in markets could occur. This data also indicates markets are still expected to move higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Overall, the US Dollar has been moving sideways since January 2023. The following charts should provide some insight for movements of the US Dollar. Key dates are provided to illustrate turning points over the last several years. The last peak in the US Dollar occurred in October 2022 as Non-Commercial Trader data readings dropped below the 0.6 level in the following US Dollar chart. At this point a steady move upward in the US Dollar would not be expected until Non-Commercial Trader Net positions relative to open interest are below the -0.2 level.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On March 21, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its Quarterly Report on Bank Trading Activity and Derivatives Activities. Figure 17 on PDF page 42 shows notional amounts of precious metals contracts held by Insured U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Associations. These institutions continue to hold precious metals contracts.
Note that beginning January 1, 2022 the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract, resulting in an increase in reported precious metals derivative contracts compared with prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule, “for additional information on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.
Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.
Step 3. Fear: March 4, 2025 through March 8, 2025
March 4, 2024, CNBC discussed the potential impact tariffs will have on Apple.
March 8, 2025, Forbes Article– Apple Stock To Fall 30%?
Step 4. Sell: March 10, 2025
Market Makers accelerate the decline with a 4.8% drop during the day.
Step 5. Extreme Fear: March 11, 2025
The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 13.
Step 6. Buy: March 18, 2025
Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.
Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.
1. Alignment of the 2018 and 2025 US 10-Yr Note vs 2025 Dow index.
2. Indications of capital moving to Swiss Francs.
3. The expectation of crude oil moving lower.
4. Market Maker accumulation of TLT.
5. The growing number of Dow stocks collapsing since 2020.
6. Engrbytrade markers pointing to a decline going into the end of 2026
7. As of November 9, 2024 the Buffett Indicator (Market Valuation to GDP) was 209%.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On January 14, 2025 it was noted that the 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader net position continued to remain in an extreme range away from the mean. This is still the case indicating the current data aligns with October 30, 2018. The following charts illustrate this alignment between the 10-Yr Note and Dow. A brief rally in the Dow is expected, but this will be followed by an increase in volatility, and a sequence of declines. As of March 14, 2025, the 10-Yr Note structural position aligned with the October 30, 2018 position. There is no expectation of the Fed lowering its range for the federal funds rate.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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2018
2025
On March 10, 2025 it was reported that hedge funds were unwinding risk just as they did in the early days of COVID. On March 11, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 17. During the trading day the index hit a low of 13. On March 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 68.80. The following NAAIM chart is an update of an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points. This chart illustrates how Fear & Greed Index lows are following a trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move sideways for at least one week. This could last as long as 30 days before moving higher.
In addition to this, the CNN “Safe Haven Demand” chart shown below provides some perspective on the long term performance expectations between stocks and bonds. The last low point was on August 5, 2024.
On March 4, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 22. During the trading day the index hit a low of 14. On March 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 74.96. The following chart provides an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points on top of the NAAIM Exposure Index. This chart illustrates how three out of five Fear & Greed Index lows are in alignment on the same NAAIM trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move higher for the next four months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers
On February 18, 2024 research indicated silver was expected to move though its ascending triangle. As of March 6, 2025 silver has moved through its ascending triangle and has a Fibonacci structure similar to 1973. On December 24, 2023 major Economic Recovery and Bailout Package approvals were included. The 2020 – 2022 packages were significantly larger than what was approved between 1970 and 1972. This is expected to cause another wave of inflation and rising silver prices. At this point there is no indication silver will move away from the previous 1973 – 1974 chart structure. It is expected to move up to the 400% Fibonacci level.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Greg Hunter: “So, why are all these reports coming out in the last few months about gold coming to America from Europe?”
Armstrong says, “Last week, I was on the phone, and I can’t tell you how much, but when you are about to go into war, capital moves. Right now, I am concerned from about May 15th on. Our computer (Socrates) says Europe is going into war, and I put it into this report, Europe will lose. This is why the gold is coming to America.”
Full interview: EU Falling & Needs War with Russia – Martin Armstrong
On February 28, 2025 the Fear and Greed Index hit a low of 15 during the trading day. Over the last two years when the index dropped between 14 and 17 stock markets continued to move higher. To put this in perspective with 1929 vs 2025, the following charts align with current calculations. The 1929 chart shows a 300% move based on the May 1929 decline structure. The current Dow structure has moved 200% based on the 2022 decline structure. In this case the Dow is in a position similar to where it was in July 1929 and would be expected to move above 50,000. This will cause retail investors to chase stock markets and should be monitored closely for any significant change in direction.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started moving higher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.
Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.
The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.
On December 10, 2024 it was noted that the Dow was going through a process of completing a short term Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. The first chart shows the final results. The second chart identifies a new preliminary Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure that was initiated on February 14, 2025. This decline is not complete and it is a clear case of algorithms controlling the decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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The CNN Fear and Greed Indicator uses seven technical indicators to provide a reading between 0 – 100. Since August 2022 readings at the close have been moving between a low of 14 and high of 85. When the reading briefly drops between 20 and 35, markets would be expected to trend higher. When readings drop below 20, there is a high probability that markets will move higher. There have been four readings below 20 between 2022 and 2025. They are noted in the following chart. If there is a sharp sell off over the next few weeks with a Fear and Greed reading below 20 at the close, then markets would be expected to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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There are major signals from 2011 that are repeating today.
They include:
1. A significant accumulation of TLT,
2. Extreme futures trader positions in the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, 10-Yr Note, and
3. The completion of a gold cycle.
In addition to the above signals a silent collapse of Dow stocks is in progress.
Based on the above signals a significant event is coming in the weeks ahead and would be expected to shake the financial system. It may not have an immediate impact on stock markets, but the flight to safety will be obvious. Interest rates will decline. A short quick decline in the stock market could occur, but affected stocks will drop dramatically as the year progresses. This also means the U.S. Dollar will start a long term trend to move higher over the next several years. Gold will immediately hit a peak and then start a long term decline as the Dollar moves higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following charts indicate Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders are near the end of a short selling cycle. Based on Commercial Trader positions, countries repatriating gold, tariffs, etc., banks, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and global corporations expect stock market and currency volatility in 2025 and 2026. They will move to Swiss Francs, among other stable assets, for safety just as they did in 2019 and 2020.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Currency chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 23, 2024 British Pound Non-Commercial Futures Trader positions hit a record level. This British Pound connection has an intermarket relationship with U.S. stock markets. On July 17, 2007 British Pound Non-Commercial Trader positions peaked, as shown below. This was followed by a decline in the British Pound and U.S. stock markets in 2008. The British Pound just moved into a position that is similar to where it was in March 2008. Futures trader positions indicate a significant amount of capital is moving in preparation for a major stock market decline in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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During the first seven trading days of February 2025 there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of six and seven figure block trades within the Dow. This includes AXP, BA, CAT, GS, HD, HON, MCD, MMM, SHW, TRV, and UNH. This decrease in volume can also be observed in the following chart as the S&P500 moves through a rising wedge. Either someone cut off a funding source(s) or Market Makers are waiting for something.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following is a review of the 10Year-3Month Treasury yield curve that moved above zero in December 2024. A recession is near.
Why The Yield Curve Inverts Before A Recession (The Real Reason)
August 17, 2023
Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd
Ed Dowd predicts, “We are seeing a recession in 2025. The rest of the globe is already starting to roll over. It’s going to be a worldwide recession.
On October 12, 2024 three Non-Commercial gold futures trading points (1, 2, and 3) were identified in the following chart. What followed was a deflationary period where gold declined and the U.S. Dollar moved higher between 2011 and 2015.
Non-Commercial gold futures trader positions are currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three point trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6). What is expected to follow over the next four years are lower gold prices and an increasing value of the Dollar. This will be due to deflationary forces, which are not yet visible. It is expected to occur between 2025 and 2029. This also aligns with what was discussed on November 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
A previous post on February 3, 2025 noted that a global financial crisis is on the way. A closer look at Dow stocks on an arithmetic scale shows that it can be interesting to watch companies such as Walmart going parabolic. Walmart may stall, as it did in 2000 and move sideways for several years. But after Walmart hit its peak in 2000, the “tech bubble” popped and brought about losses that are still discussed today. There are numerous headlines about reducing the debt, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos selling stock, jobs, inflation, etc., etc. What is important are the positions that Market Makers are taking to setup for a decline. Since they run a “merchandising operation”, sales to pension funds, hedge funds, and large institutions would be in order at this point. In January 2025 there was a significant increase in the number of extremely large blocks of stock crossing the tape. As this occurred, active investment managers increased their exposure between the end of January and beginning of February.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On December 19, 2024 it was noted that over the last several years Market Makers have been working on a parabolic structure for IBM. The following IBM charts include Engrbytrade™ markers within the structures. Connecting markers between 2010 and 2025 shows a projected low in the $60 to $70 range by mid- 2026. This aligns with the following S&P500 chart showing a projected low in 2026. A similar collapse occurred with Intel between April 2021 and February 2025. Markers still indicate Intel could drop below $10.
The following charts are also an indication that a global financial crisis is on the way. In 1987, Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued the “Stock Market Crash of 1987” essay. They included the following point. “….a new product from US investment firms, known as “portfolio insurance,” had become very popular. It included extensive use of options and derivatives and accelerated the crash’s pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling.”
Today the growth of derivatives continues toward estimated values as high as $2.3 quadrillion. New speculative products such as Zero-Day options, Bitcoin ETFs, etc. are just a repeat of what led up to the 1987 crash.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
